Jacob Rubashkin

For more than a decade, I lived undocumented in the US. Every day carried the same uncertainty and fear lived in my body - a tight chest, shallow breaths, racing heart. What I thought was my private, chronic dread has now become a shared national wound. This now-daily violence is not "law and order." It is terror inflicted on people who contribute, love, and build their lives here. It's devastatingly cruel and unAmerican •

John Fetterman’s wife Gisele posted this an hour ago in response to yesterday’s events but I haven’t seen the senator say anything publicly or issue any statements.

Five years ago Kash Patel went on rabid anti-Semite Stew Peters’ podcast to offer free legal services to Kyle Rittenhouse (rumble.com/vpi004-ritte...)

Patel later told the Senate Judiciary committee he wasn’t familiar with Peters despite appearing on his show 8 times.

Has any House member received more New York Times profiles than MGP on how she is the answer for Democrats? I count at least six since 2023, averaging about one every six months.

Readers of @InsideElections were the first to hear about Seth Bodnar’s potential Montana Senate run all the way back in July 2025! If you’re not reading our Senate overviews, you’re (way) behind. www.insideelections.com/news/article...

We’re calling it “Whiskey Fridays,” Lemon. It scores great with men age 38-52 who sleep in race car beds.

Alaska Senate: Peltola Puts Seat on Battleground Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.

🚨Alaska Senate moves from Solid Republican to LEAN REPUBLICAN with former Rep. Mary Peltola’s entrance into the race.

Democrats have a narrow path to a Senate majority that got slightly wider today. Read more here: www.insideelections.com/news/article...

The gap between how the Democratic Party operates on social media and the party’s actual leaders has never been wider.

Democratic leaders have kept Mamdani at arms length for months. Meanwhile, on the official party TikTok:

Might have to start calling it the Weissand Effect

Not sure what this will ultimately accomplish for Weiss other than Streisand-effecting this story into the stratosphere when it eventually comes out.

a man in a green and black shirt is sitting in a chair holding a yellow box . ALT: a man in a green and black shirt is sitting in a chair holding a yellow box .

It's mailbag time! Inside Elections is doing a mailbag podcast episode before we head into the holidays. Do you have a burning question about ghosts of elections past, present, or future?

Drop it below or send it to jacob@insideelections [dot] com and we'll try to answer it on the show!

a man in a green and black shirt is sitting in a chair holding a yellow box . ALT: a man in a green and black shirt is sitting in a chair holding a yellow box .

It's mailbag time! Inside Elections is doing a mailbag podcast episode before we head into the holidays. Do you have a burning question about ghosts of elections past, present, or future?

Drop it below or send it to jacob@insideelections [dot] com and we'll try to answer it on the show!

The Cuellar episode is actually really illuminating.

It underscores how Trump sees pardons as transactional, whether explicitly stated or not: a pardon for loyalty and even a specific action.

It also shows how strong the power is: no take-backs if you get bamboozled!

If Democrats put up Clinton numbers with Hispanics and Biden/Beto numbers with white voters, they can win statewide. But they still only win 14 seats (+1).

They would need another 10% of juice to put the next tranche of seats in play. That means a double-digit statewide win...

Could Democrats Break the Texas Gerrymander? Would a return to form among Latino voters help Democrats break the Texas GOP gerrymander?

Even in a universe where Democrats are winning statewide in Texas, the new map essentially limits their gains to one seat. Then there is a massive cliff before TX-24, the next best opportunity.

Under the old map they might be able to flip two seats.

There’s a lot of this sentiment over the past few weeks and re: Texas there’s just not evidence it’s true. There’s no universe in which the new map is worse for the GOP than the old map. It might not achieve all its goals in a Blue Wave, but would perform better than the old map.

Attorney Married to Ex-NFL Star Explores Run For Congress Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.

SCOOP | Attorney Married to Ex-NFL Star Preps House Bid

In 2008, Plaxico Burress helped the Giants break the Patriots' 18-game win streak in Super Bowl XLII.

In 2026, can Tiffany Glenn Burress help the GOP break Dems' 15-term win streak in Passaic?

Episode 8: Talking Tennessee, with Jacob Rubashkin from Inside Elections Digging into the much-watched special election in Tennessee's 7th District and the broader electoral trends ahead of the 2026 midterms

In this week's DDHQ Podcast, @geoffreyskelley.com talked Tennessee with @rubashkin.bsky.social from Inside Elections! They dug into the #TN07 special election result — especially the contest's high turnout — and what it may say about next year's midterms. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/tennessee-...

Davidson County early vote comes in at Behn +70, which is a little more than what she needs out of the populous county overall. If Election Day vote is Behn +65 or higher, hold onto your seats…

ICYMI — Inside Elections moved TN-07 from Solid Republican to Lean Republican two weeks ago. New poll last week from Emerson shows a dead heat in the Trump +22 seat. www.insideelections.com/news/article...

Maryland 6: Trone Polls Primary Matchup Against Incumbent McClain Delaney? The poll suggests Trone will try to run to McClain Delaney’s left.

SCOOP | David Trone appears to be polling a primary challenge to Rep. April McClain Delaney — from the left.

It could set up an expensive and personal primary for Maryland's 6th District.

I got the full poll, which is still in the field. Read more:

Maryland 6: Trone Polls Primary Matchup Against Incumbent McClain Delaney? The poll suggests Trone will try to run to McClain Delaney’s left.

SCOOP | David Trone appears to be polling a primary challenge to Rep. April McClain Delaney — from the left.

It could set up an expensive and personal primary for Maryland's 6th District.

I got the full poll, which is still in the field. Read more:

NEW | Democratic House Majority PAC is investing $1 million into Trump +22 district TN-07 across television and digital platforms. Special election is Dec. 2.

From HMP spox @cjwarnke:

Currently we see the House battlefield like so:
213 seats favoring GOP
210 seats favoring Dems
12 toss-ups

If Texas is using the old map, that looks more like:
GOP favored in 210
Dems favored in 214
Toss-up 11

WOW - a three-judge panel overturns the new Texas GOP gerrymander.

It will be appealed but a huge ruling regardless and significant implications for the House if it stands.

And written by a Trump-appointed judge who was previously elected as a Republican to the Texas Supreme Court.

Of the top 10 most booked DC restaurants on Opentable this month:

-3 are Jose Andres restaurants (Zaytinya, Oyamel, Jaleo)
-3 are Founding Farmers locations
-3 are classic DC spots (Joe’s, Old Ebbitt, Filomena)
-and The Hamilton

Important correction:

Could Democrats Break the Texas Gerrymander? Would a return to form among Latino voters help Democrats break the Texas GOP gerrymander?

If Dems could get back their Clintonian margins among Latinos but keep their Bidenesque wins in the cities and suburbs, could they break the new map, which was drawn with the Latino shift to Trump in mind?

The short answer: no. The longer answer? Read on: www.insideelections.com/news/article...

a black and white photo of a man with a stethoscope around his neck screaming . ALT: a black and white photo of a man with a stethoscope around his neck screaming .

Specifically, we had to create a Frankenstein candidate who possessed all of the strengths of Clinton among Latinos, but also Biden and Beto among Black voters and white suburbanites. That could help us estimate the "best case scenario" for a Democrat in each district.

Could Democrats Break the Texas Gerrymander? Would a return to form among Latino voters help Democrats break the Texas GOP gerrymander?

NEW | Could Democrats Break the Texas GOP Gerrymander?

After last Tuesday night's elections, a lot of folks have asked if a resurgence among Latinos could help Dems flip the new Texas map on its head.

To answer that question, I had to create Frankenstein. www.insideelections.com/news/article...

Maine 2: Open Seat Shifts Toward Republicans Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.

RATINGS CHANGE | Maine 2: Tilt Democratic ➡️Likely Republican after Jared Golden bows out of reelection. www.insideelections.com/news/article...