Jacob Rubashkin

Liked this Times feature on what @aseitzwald.bsky.social and co are up to in Maine? Be sure to listen to Alex on the latest Inside Elections — all about Maine politics! youtu.be/Lmfg9W3XoDQ?...

Thanks for the tag

YouTube video by Inside Elections Episode 56: Midterms, NFL, Kentucky Derby w/ Steve Kornacki of NBC News

So much fun to have the one and only Steve Kornacki on the Inside Elections Podcast this week!

We talk House races, New Jersey, and how Steve (nearly) nailed his first Kentucky Derby. Take a listen! www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvHo...

Agreed, and when I signed on I pointed the organizers to a number of very talented women but unfortunately it didn’t come to fruition.

SCOOPLET | Missoula smokejumper Sam Forstag, a local union leader and wildland firefighter, is considering running against GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke in MT-01 (Trump+12, Tester+1), per 3 sources familiar. No decision expected before November.

Forstag spoke at a Bernie rally this year.

Volume 9, Issue 17: 2026 House Overview, Senate & Governor Report Shorts Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.

Readers of Inside Elections knew this tidbit a week ago thanks to our 101-district House overview that included hundreds of names of current and potential House candidates across the country. If you're not subscribing, you're already behind.
insideelections.com/edition/9/17

SCOOPLET | Missoula smokejumper Sam Forstag, a local union leader and wildland firefighter, is considering running against GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke in MT-01 (Trump+12, Tester+1), per 3 sources familiar. No decision expected before November.

Forstag spoke at a Bernie rally this year.

Per the WSJ here's the note allegedly signed by Trump for the 2003 Jeffrey Epstein birthday book

www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...

Democrats flipped a Trump +11 state Senate seat in Iowa tonight, by a wide margin, continuing a streak of special election over-performances in the Hawkeye State and breaking the GOP legislative supermajority. At the current margin it would be a 20 point swing toward Democrats.

Bob Brooks officially announced his run for toss-up PA-07 today — I broke the news that he was planning to run more than a month ago >>>

Trump to crack down on flag burning, desecration with executive order President Donald Trump is set to sign an executive order on Aug. 21 cracking down on those who desecrate the American flag, including protesters who have burned Old Glory.

Remarkable but not at all surprising that this Fox News article never mentions flag burning is constitutionally protected free speech per SCOTUS in Texas v. Johnson, a case you learn about in high school, and affirmed in United States v. Eichman after Congress attempted a ban.

Of course, that kind of resource diversion game is less helpful when you need to flip 4 seats, not just hold serve like in 2022. The Dem majority is based on ME + NC, then two of OH, IA, and TX — none of which will come anywhere close to easy. Ohio alone wouldn’t cut it.

2022 is illustrative of the effect a competitive Ohio race can have on the map even if Democrats don’t win. Tim Ryan’s spirited campaign + JD Vance’s struggles forced Republicans to spend $10s of millions that could have bucked up candidates elsewhere, helping Dems go +1 overall.

🚨OH-Senate: Solid Republican ➡️Lean Republican

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown’s expected entrance makes this race competitive, but any Democrat is still an underdog in Ohio.

That said, any real path to a D majority includes a strong Brown campaign. www.insideelections.com/news/article...

A new poll from the pro-Raja Krishnamoorthi Impact Fund shows the congressman out front in the IL-Sen Democratic primary to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin.

Krishnamoorthi 38
Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton 17
Rep. Robin Kelly 7

(8/8-10, 615 LVs, mixed mode, ±3.95%)

Didn’t know they made Moldovan ambassadors at the Pete Buttigieg factory

Beto 2018 (lost by 2%) would have won one more congressional district than Obama 2012 (lost by 16%) under the new map proposed by Texas Republicans.

Forsythe would join state House Minority Leader Pam Stevenson in the Democratic primary for Mitch McConnell’s open seat, which is rated Solid Republican. Inside Elections first reported this news in yesterday’s Senate overview issue. Subscribe! t.co/SM4n7g6E6W

NEWS | Attorney and former Secret Service special agent Logan Forsythe is “seriously considering a bid and is likely to run” for Senate in Kentucky as a Democrat next year. The 36-year-old Western Kentucky native is now a personal injury attorney in Lexington.

“You go check me out 1am in the morning, I’m sitting in the back of a closed barbershop or beauty salon, smoking a cigar or drinking some Henny, or a single malt scotch.”

Can’t believe my gym implemented ranked choice voting before the DC council did

🚨NEWS | Pennsylvania firefighter union chief Bob Brooks is gearing up to run as a Democrat in toss-up PA-07, per two Pennsylvania Democratic sources. Brooks, a 20-year veteran of the Bethlehem FD, would be the fourth major candidate running against GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.

🚨NEWS | Pennsylvania firefighter union chief Bob Brooks is gearing up to run as a Democrat in toss-up PA-07, per two Pennsylvania Democratic sources. Brooks, a 20-year veteran of the Bethlehem FD, would be the fourth major candidate running against GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie.

Kyrsten Sinema (no longer a senator) spent nearly $400,000 in campaign funds over the past three months, including:

-$86k on airfare and in-flight services
-$86k on security detail (including $600 on ski tickets)
-$7k on meals

The 7,309-Vote Election: How Republicans Held the House By one metric, 2024 was the closest fight for the House in at least 30 years.

Democrats lost the House by 7,309 votes last year — this week is a direct consequence. I dug into the closest races of the cycle >>> www.insideelections.com/news/article...

One thing I think is underdiscussed re: Murkowski is that she is unique in her coalition is primarily members of the opposite party. She won 53% in 2022 against another GOPer. Biden won 43%, Harris won 41%, back of the envelope 70-80% of Murkowski voters are Dem pres voters.

In 2002, Republican candidates won NV 3, GA 12, and PA 6.

All three (redrawn after the 2000 Census) would have been won by Al Gore two years earlier.

In addition to the good national environment for the GOP, the Dems in Nevada and Georgia faced scandals.

NE-02 was Harris +4.

Nebraska 2: Without Bacon, Are Republicans Cooked? Inside Elections is a non-partisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics, and political developments.

The last time either party successfully defended an open seat won by the loser of the last presidential election—what Republicans will try to do with Don Bacon's Nebraska 2nd—was 23 years ago. In 2002, the GOP won 3 open seats that Gore had won in 2000. www.insideelections.com/news/article...

NEWS | Another potential NE-02 Democratic candidate now that Bacon retired is former VA Deputy Assistant Secretary Kishla Askins, a physician's assistant who spent 30 years in the Navy, including as a medical officer and DOD official. She most recently was COO of an Arctic-focused consulting firm.

Mamdani winning is bad for Democrats because now Republicans might call them socialists, something that has never happened before.