Duck of Minerva

Here We Go Again: Why American Presidents Can’t Resist Regime Change The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean is confusing the MAGA faithful. With rumors swirling of an imminent operation to topple Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, the president’s supporters are asking what happened to “America First”? Tucker Carlson recently remarked it was a “little strange” that the U.S. was telling another country, “we don’t like your leadership — leave or we’ll kill you.” Trump’s former chief strategist, …

Here We Go Again: Why American Presidents Can’t Resist Regime Change

The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean is confusing the MAGA faithful. With rumors swirling of an imminent operation to topple Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro, the president’s supporters are asking what happened to “America…

Bullies, Follies, and Decadent Orders: Constructing Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern  On November 1, 2025, President Donald Trump threatened to end all U.S. assistance to Nigeria and — if he deemed it necessary — launch a military attack against insurgents in the country. As National Public Radio reported: “If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, ‘guns-a-blazing,’ to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,” Trump posted on social media.

Bullies, Follies, and Decadent Orders: Constructing Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern 

On November 1, 2025, President Donald Trump threatened to end all U.S. assistance to Nigeria and — if he deemed it necessary — launch a military attack against insurgents in the country. As National…

Exploring the Meaning of Responsibility I’ve been thinking a lot about the meaning of “responsibility,” specifically in the context of politics and governance. We live in an age of populism, rising authoritarianism, disinformation, climate change, and the slaughter of civilians in places like Gaza and Sudan. The notions of responsibility associated with the so-called “liberal international order” are all under strain. Most of us, I think, rely on a kind of “

Exploring the Meaning of Responsibility

I’ve been thinking a lot about the meaning of “responsibility,” specifically in the context of politics and governance. We live in an age of populism, rising authoritarianism, disinformation, climate change, and the slaughter of civilians in places like Gaza…

Nuclear apocalypse now? Reflections on the movie “House of Dynamite” I had high hopes for director Kathryn Bigelow’s House of Dynamite, a new Netflix movie about U.S. nuclear command and control. There’s so much potential for cinema to unpack the dilemmas and tragedies of living under a nuclear sword of Damocles, and my initial reaction was disappointment at the ways this fails to be that movie. But for all its shortcomings, the film also serves as a sobering reminder of the profound peril nuclear weapons entail.

Nuclear apocalypse now? Reflections on the movie “House of Dynamite”

I had high hopes for director Kathryn Bigelow’s House of Dynamite, a new Netflix movie about U.S. nuclear command and control. There’s so much potential for cinema to unpack the dilemmas and tragedies of living under a nuclear…

6+1 Questions About “The Social Construction of Christian Persecution through Quantification in International Religious Freedom Advocacy” What is the name of the journal article (or book) and what are its coordinates? Miray Philips. 2025. “The Social Construction of Christian Persecution through Quantification in International Religious Freedom Advocacy.” Sociology of Religion. 2. What’s the argument? In Washington, DC, International Religious Freedom advocates mostly rely on data by the Pew Research Center on religious restrictions and Open Doors on Christian persecution.

6+1 Questions About “The Social Construction of Christian Persecution through Quantification in International Religious Freedom Advocacy”

What is the name of the journal article (or book) and what are its coordinates? Miray Philips. 2025. “The Social Construction of Christian Persecution through…

Ceasefire NOW (but not *now*) After years of calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, a ceasefire was recently announced and…those calling for the ceasefire are upset about it. There are some valid reasons to hold off on celebrating, but I worry this represents a deeper issue with how we conceive of peace and how we study the Middle East. And this will only hurt the Palestinians these voices claim to champion.

Ceasefire NOW (but not *now*)

After years of calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, a ceasefire was recently announced and…those calling for the ceasefire are upset about it. There are some valid reasons to hold off on celebrating, but I worry this represents a deeper issue with how we conceive of peace…

Antisemitism, Israel and the Problem with no Easy Solution Debates about Israel and Palestine have, as one scholar remarked to me, become the “third rail” in British academia. That needs to change. The terror attack in Manchester makes clear that UK academics must engage in a public, thoughtful, and careful discussion about Jews, Israel and Palestine. On October 2nd, 2025 — on the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, Yom Kippur — a Synagogue in Manchester was attacked in what has been officially labelled a…

Antisemitism, Israel and the Problem with no Easy Solution

Debates about Israel and Palestine have, as one scholar remarked to me, become the “third rail” in British academia. That needs to change. The terror attack in Manchester makes clear that UK academics must engage in a public, thoughtful,…

The Mirage of Great-Power Competition Photo by Dave Photoz on Unsplash Back in March, I wrote a post at Lawyers, Guns and Money called “Remember ‘Great Power Competition?’ Lol.” As the “Grand Strategy” of Trump 2.0 comes into focus, I thought it would be a good idea to revisit and update it. In brief, the normie national-security advisors who dominated the first Trump administration needed a way to make Trump’s semi-coherent ramblings legible to the global foreign-policy community.

The Mirage of Great-Power Competition

Photo by Dave Photoz on Unsplash Back in March, I wrote a post at Lawyers, Guns and Money called “Remember ‘Great Power Competition?’ Lol.” As the “Grand Strategy” of Trump 2.0 comes into focus, I thought it would be a good idea to revisit and update it. In…

The State of the Union is Grim The Republic as we knew it is over. The fight now is whether the new one will be a fascistic, competitive authoritarian regime or a pluralist democracy that, one hopes, is better than what came before.

The State of the Union is Grim

The Republic as we knew it is over. The fight now is whether the new one will be a fascistic, competitive authoritarian regime or a pluralist democracy that, one hopes, is better than what came before.

6+1 Questions about American Conquest: The Northwest Indian War and the Making of US Foreign Policy What’s the name of the book, and where can we find it? American Conquest: The Northwest Indian War and the Making of US Foreign Policy (Stanford University Press, 2025). What’s the argument? Relations with Native American groups were constitutive of early U.S. foreign policy, and this should make us reconsider the notion that the United States was isolationist in this period.

6+1 Questions about American Conquest: The Northwest Indian War and the Making of US Foreign Policy

What’s the name of the book, and where can we find it? American Conquest: The Northwest Indian War and the Making of US Foreign Policy (Stanford University Press, 2025). What’s the argument?…

Will the recognition of Palestine matter? What IR scholarship says The UN General Assembly meeting has seen a growing number of states recognizing a state of Palestine, including Western powers like France, the United Kingdom and Canada. Debate has swirled over why they are doing this: is it a principled stand, an attempt to gain international or domestic clout, etc.? But there's a bigger question over whether this matters and when it may matter: that is, at what point does the informal recognition of an entity as a state lead to actual changes in international relations?

Will the recognition of Palestine matter? What IR scholarship says

The UN General Assembly meeting has seen a growing number of states recognizing a state of Palestine, including Western powers like France, the United Kingdom and Canada. Debate has swirled over why they are doing this: is it a…

Trump’s Foreign Policy and the Purpose of the MAGA State How can we understand Tump 2.0 foreign policy? It's the product of the fusion of two different forces: Christian Nationalism and Personalist Rent-Extraction.

Trump’s Foreign Policy and the Purpose of the MAGA State

How can we understand Tump 2.0 foreign policy? It's the product of the fusion of two different forces: Christian Nationalism and Personalist Rent-Extraction.

How do we think about 9/11 in 2025? I used to feel compelled to write something on 9/11. Some of this was just to participate in the discourse, some out of fear that failure to do so would mean moving on and forgetting. In 2009--back when I provided free labor for The Huffington Post--I wrote this on the shadowy but still serious threat posed by al-Qaeda. More recently, I wrote this on the failure of security studies to…

How do we think about 9/11 in 2025?

I used to feel compelled to write something on 9/11. Some of this was just to participate in the discourse, some out of fear that failure to do so would mean moving on and forgetting. In 2009--back when I provided free labor for The Huffington Post--I wrote this…

Benjamin de Carvalho Dr. Benjamin de Carvalho joins the Hayseed Scholar podcast. Ben was born in Switzerland to a mother from Norway and a father from Brazil. Ben talks about how that transpired, growing up in Norway, and how a Fulbright brought him to the United States in the late 90's. Ben recounts his time at the New School for his first Master's,  moving to Cambridge for his M.Phil and PhD, and ending back in Norway at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, or NUPI, where he remains gainfully and happily employed, and thriving, to this day. 

Benjamin de Carvalho

Dr. Benjamin de Carvalho joins the Hayseed Scholar podcast. Ben was born in Switzerland to a mother from Norway and a father from Brazil. Ben talks about how that transpired, growing up in Norway, and how a Fulbright brought him to the United States in the late 90's. Ben…

Who wants AI in the classroom? I get emails. Sometimes they find me well; sometimes they try to convince me that I need to bring artificial intelligence (“AI”) into the classroom. “AI is going to revolutionize higher education!” “Prepare your students for the AI-driven job market!” "Resistance is futile!" “Sign up for our workshop!” Despite being bombarded with such messages hyping “AI” (around which I will keep using scare quotes), it remains unclear to me that there is much to gain from bringing “AI” into my Political Science classrooms.

Who wants AI in the classroom?

I get emails. Sometimes they find me well; sometimes they try to convince me that I need to bring artificial intelligence (“AI”) into the classroom. “AI is going to revolutionize higher education!” “Prepare your students for the AI-driven job market!” "Resistance is…

6+1 Questions about “The U.S.: A (Mostly) Hands-Off Superpower” Drew Hogan answers 6+1 questions about how the United States does, and does not, support its overseas citizens.

6+1 Questions about “The U.S.: A (Mostly) Hands-Off Superpower”

Drew Hogan answers 6+1 questions about how the United States does, and does not, support its overseas citizens.

Is there a strategy behind Rubio’s State Department cuts? The foreign policy world is still making sense of the Trump Administration's massive cuts to the US State Department last week. Under Secretary of State Marco Rubio, nearly 1500 employees--most of them civil servants--lose their jobs. In some ways, this isn't surprising, as Trump began his second term with a massive, Elon Musk-led, gutting of the federal workforce. But it's still catching some by surprise, given Rubio's reported…

Is there a strategy behind Rubio’s State Department cuts?

The foreign policy world is still making sense of the Trump Administration's massive cuts to the US State Department last week. Under Secretary of State Marco Rubio, nearly 1500 employees--most of them civil servants--lose their jobs. In…

After Anarchy? On Hierarchy, Heterarchy, and Multiplicity Kenneth Waltz famously claimed that anarchy—i.e., the absence of a global sovereign—is the ordering principle of world politics, and much International Relations (IR) scholarship since then has aimed to debunk the claim that anarchy defines IR as a subject. Today, some aim to do so by offering new conceptual foundations for IR. This post is not a relitigation of the “

After Anarchy? On Hierarchy, Heterarchy, and Multiplicity

Kenneth Waltz famously claimed that anarchy—i.e., the absence of a global sovereign—is the ordering principle of world politics, and much International Relations (IR) scholarship since then has aimed to debunk the claim that anarchy defines…

Why have so many Muslim communities embraced radicalism? Over two decades have passed since the horrifying 9/11 attacks. Do we have a consensus understanding of the radicalization process in communities that supported or filled the ranks of jihadist groups, including the likes of al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, Hamas, and the Taliban? The answer (see also here) is a resounding no! As more political science scholars conduct terrorism research than scholars from any other discipline, they have a vested interest in getting this phenomenon right and helping to frame policies that effectively address the threats.

Why have so many Muslim communities embraced radicalism?

Over two decades have passed since the horrifying 9/11 attacks. Do we have a consensus understanding of the radicalization process in communities that supported or filled the ranks of jihadist groups, including the likes of al-Qaeda, the…

What’s the Matter with Soft Power? I dislike the term “soft power.” We owe the term to the late, great Joseph Nye. He popularized it in his 1990 book, Bound to Lead. Nye’s book was, first and foremost, an intervention in the “declinism” debates of the later 1980s. Japan was at the peak of its influence; some projected that its economy would overtake that of the United States by the early 2000s.

What’s the Matter with Soft Power?

I dislike the term “soft power.” We owe the term to the late, great Joseph Nye. He popularized it in his 1990 book, Bound to Lead. Nye’s book was, first and foremost, an intervention in the “declinism” debates of the later 1980s. Japan was at the peak of its…

Resisting a narrative on Israel and antisemitism I've had four potential posts on Israel, anti-Israel actions and antisemitism this week. As new events occur, the old post falls to the wayside. I was stuck on whether I should pick one, or try to weave the events together into some kind of narrative and draw conclusions. I've decided I can't, or don't want to, do either. And I wonder how much of the morass Israel-Palestine discourse feels stuck in is due to our compulsion to create such a narrative.

Resisting a narrative on Israel and antisemitism

I've had four potential posts on Israel, anti-Israel actions and antisemitism this week. As new events occur, the old post falls to the wayside. I was stuck on whether I should pick one, or try to weave the events together into some kind of…

Probiotic disinformation “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in” is something I would say at the risk of alienating the younger readership of this blog, but given that most of us are old here, it should be fine. I have been busy working on Russian Neo-Nazis, so I almost forgot that back in the simpler times I was also interested in how…

Probiotic disinformation

“Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in” is something I would say at the risk of alienating the younger readership of this blog, but given that most of us are old here, it should be fine. I have been busy working on Russian Neo-Nazis, so I almost forgot that…

The Vatican’s Quiet Intelligence Legacy and Why It Matters Now On Easter Monday, Pope Francis died at the age of 88. His passing marked the end of a 12-year papacy characterized by a commitment to the poor, an insistence on peace over posturing, and an often-controversial emphasis on mercy over rules. As white smoke issues from the Vatican--indicating a new pope has been chosen--most commentary has focused on familiar terrain: his views on women, LGBTQ+ rights, his political moderation, his Latin American identity, or his climate advocacy.

The Vatican’s Quiet Intelligence Legacy and Why It Matters Now

On Easter Monday, Pope Francis died at the age of 88. His passing marked the end of a 12-year papacy characterized by a commitment to the poor, an insistence on peace over posturing, and an often-controversial emphasis on mercy over…

The frustrating wisdom of Pope Francis’s international mediation I was born a proud Protestant. A Lutheran in a town still marked by Catholic-Protestant tensions, with Catholic friends who told me I don't worship right, neighbors who claimed Catholics were polytheists, and a grandmother who wore orange on St. Patrick's Day (I never quite got that, as we had no connection to Ireland). But I also felt drawn to the Roman Catholic church.

The frustrating wisdom of Pope Francis’s international mediation

I was born a proud Protestant. A Lutheran in a town still marked by Catholic-Protestant tensions, with Catholic friends who told me I don't worship right, neighbors who claimed Catholics were polytheists, and a grandmother who wore…

Unreal climate ‘realism’ It’s hard to keep track of the problems confronting Americans these days. But, just in case a reminder is needed, climate change is still a thing. Casual observers may have noted that US climate policy has been…underwhelming, see-sawing between ‘Build Back Better’ aspirations and climate denialism. Now climate policy wunderkind Varun Sivaram has called for a rethink on US climate (foreign) policy.

Unreal climate ‘realism’

It’s hard to keep track of the problems confronting Americans these days. But, just in case a reminder is needed, climate change is still a thing. Casual observers may have noted that US climate policy has been…underwhelming, see-sawing between ‘Build Back Better’…

Big Man, Big Heart This a crosspost from Saideman's Semi-Spew. This week, we found out that Brandon Valeriano died. It is quite gutting as he had such a terrific spirit, and he was too damned young. Brandon stood out from the crowd at all the conferences as he was literally bigger than most of us, and he was also one of the very few Latinos in the field of IR.

Big Man, Big Heart

This a crosspost from Saideman's Semi-Spew. This week, we found out that Brandon Valeriano died. It is quite gutting as he had such a terrific spirit, and he was too damned young. Brandon stood out from the crowd at all the conferences as he was literally bigger than most of us,…

So much for “Great Power Competition” The buzzword of the first Trump administration was "Great Power Competition." That was also a lie.

So much for “Great Power Competition”

The buzzword of the first Trump administration was "Great Power Competition." That was also a lie.

Climate Pledges as Vehicles for Political Posturing Under the Paris Agreement, states submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) outlining their commitments to reducing emissions. These documents are important window in the international poli…

Check it out:

States sometimes unhelpfully instrumentalise their climate pledges as foreign policy documents. A piece I wrote on this phenomenon with my colleague Bill Kakenmaster has just been published on @duckofminerva.bsky.social

www.duckofminerva.com/2024/12/clim...

Does this mean Assad would have fallen ten years ago? Like many who follow the Middle East, a lot has been going through my head since the civil war there suddenly reignited and Bashar al-Assad’s regime even more suddenly fell. Will the victims …

Thoughtful post by @pehenne.bsky.social at @duckofminerva.bsky.social

"If Assad fell so quickly now, after having 10 years to recover from the initial shock of the protests, would he have fallen equally quickly back then? And if so, were skeptics of intervention wrong?"

Who is behind the terrorist attack in Ankara? On October 23rd, militants attacked a Turkish aerospace facility near the capital of Ankara. The Turkish government blamed the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)–a Kurdish insurgent group&#…

In our most recent post @pehenne.bsky.social writes about terrorist attacks in Ankara, Turkey from earlier in the fall. www.duckofminerva.com/2024/10/who-...