Steve Clark

A cutaway drawing illustrating the intricate network of tunnels, platforms, and passageways beneath Piccadilly Circus in London. The drawing shows the Piccadilly Line platforms, escalators, and connecting corridors, offering a glimpse into the complex infrastructure of the London Underground.

Love a revealing cut-away!

(from a London Transport Museum poster by Gavin Dunn)

H/T to @thetransferflow.bsky.social , who put out their gameweek recap on Tuesday with a title (and content) that inspired me to look into this. Go read their content - it's always great.

It's a long shot, but it just might work There's nothing like a million-to-one chance.

You can read the post here: open.substack.com/pub/jagalyti...

In other news, there's a current Championship player who, over ten shots from outside the box this season, averages a 243% increase in his post-shot xG compared to the xG of the chance. Small sample, but pretty impressive nonetheless.

Thistle are top two for the volume of long shots taken and top three for converting them to goals this season, although the average shot (and goal) distance isn't actually that high. We don’t take them from massively far out but we pick some very difficult long shots and manage to convert them.

Two of the fifteen lowest xG goals from the last few years have been scored by Thistle players in the last few months, and two of the top five longest distance goals in the last three years have been in the last few months.

In fact, the rate of long shots has gone up this season compared to previously, and the efficiency of those shots has too. Six of the ten most efficient long range shooters since the start of 23/24 are playing this season in the league.

Preview for the latest Jagalytics post - titled "It's a long shot, but it just might work". Graphic shows three stacked bars with the number of shots per game in different zones of the pitch

Yesterday evening, whilst two of the long shot specialists in the Scottish Championship were playing, I put out the latest post. This time round, I was digging into long shots and whether they're a bigger thing this year than previous seasons.

Red (and yellow) lines (5) - Cultured conductors Finding players who pass deep and dangerous

You can read the full post here: open.substack.com/pub/jagalyti...

The results throw up one or two unrealistic players who we won't be signing any time soon, but provide interesting validation of the approach. Among the players I'd want to see more of are an unusual Faroese anchorman, and another player at Norwegian side Lyn

I've drawn the red lines for this based on finding a passing-hub, game-reading, forward-thinking, eat-the-ground-by-passing 6, rather than a purely physical intimidator, as Smyth's play at its best was more about cultured passing and good in-possession orchestration

preview image for the jagalytics post, with the title "Red and yellow lines (5) - Cultured conductors" and the top of a scatter chart showing Elliot Watt and Luca Mack

After a brief diversiion into xG difference, I'm returning to the transfer window series. This time: if we wanted to find a player who anchors the midfield more like a conductor than a breaker-upper, who could we find to scout in more detail?

Have Thistle stalled? TW: lots of xG, plus some stats

There are some interesting trends in the post for teams with relatively recent managerial changes (Morton and Raith Rovers), as well as a few surges from the bottom few teams. You can read the post here: open.substack.com/pub/jagalyti...

The good news for Thistle fans: we've turned a corner. Our xGD is really healthy - about +0.3 over the last six games, and about +0.65 over the last three. We've gone from bad to strong, which hints at a better return in the next few games.

Previous 'underlying numbers' are a good way of explaining the variability in team's near-term performance. For a month until we went level with St. Johnstone, we averaged an xGD that pointed to upcoming PPG of about 1.25. From 6 December to 3 January, we got 1.2 PPG.

Interestingly, if you can sustain xGD of around +0.75 or better over a few games, you tend to go on to ~1.7ish PPG in the games in the next month or so. Similarly, if you average -0.75 or worse in the last few games, you'll likely go on to get ~1 point per game in the next few.

I wanted to find out how related recent 'fundamental numbers' point towards future performance. In other words: if you have had good xG for and against recently, how likely is it that this will result in good results ahead?

preview image for the post, with the title "have thistle stalled?". The bottom shows a line chart of Thistle's rolling xG difference over the season, showing we have shifted positive in recent games.

I'm going to return to my transfer window series tomorrow. But bouncing off a chat we had on the @drawloseordraw.bsky.social episode recorded earlier this week (and due to release soon), I thought I'd do a quick dig into something that offers some hope for Thistle after a rough few weeks

Red (and yellow) Lines (part 1) - ball-running wingers VLOOKUPS and doing it on a dreech night in Forfar

There are two at least who keep popping up every time I run this sort of analysis. You can read the post here: open.substack.com/pub/jagalyti...

To start with, I'm using 'ball running wingers' - as they are such a big part of how Thistle play. Interestingly, the process throws up several players who validate the approach, but are unobtainable for Thistle (I'd guess), as well as some who would need a lot of scouting.

I'm going to work through a few profiles of players and use some basic red lines to filter players out, mostly focusing on leagues we are unlikely to shop in (but could reasonably do so if we wanted to), to illustrate the point of using data to filter out players.

...I just want to show worked examples of what
Tom Worville
talked about in a recent talk ... using data to triage a subset of players to respect a set of 'you shall not pass' criteria.

... in other words, showing how data can be used to rule players out (red) and prioritise the ones that remain (yellow). This series will be about the process rather than recommending players. Nothing in this post should be taken as worth turning into a rumour...

Preview image for the latest jagalytics post, featuring the 'he gets on base' meme from moneyball in the background (changed to 'he gets on spreadsheets'). The title is 'Red (and yellow) lines (1) - ball running wingers'

It's that time of year - the transfer window is open, and the rumour mill is in overdrive. Instead of writing about players who Thistle might - or should - sign, I'm going to do something a bit different. I'm going to use the idea of red and yellow lines...

Clinicality is our chief weapon Clinicality and Influence. And Irreplaceability.

All this and more in the latest Jagalytics post! Read it here: open.substack.com/pub/jagalyti...

One Thistle player is the hardest to replace in the league (and it's not Logan Chalmers). And we are only third in the league for players who make a big individual impact.

One of the intriguing things in here is how different St. Johnstone are against the bottom three in the league than against the rest of the top 7. Meanwhile, they have a lot to like in the other two metrics.

I look at three different attributes that matter when you want to fight for a title - clinical performances, influential players and irreplaceable stars.

preview image for the latest Jagalytics post - titled "Clinicality is our chief weapon" with a red and yellow dot plot in the background

We're almost halfway through the season, and two of the other top four are playing as I type. So maybe it's time (whisper it quietly) to talk about who has the weapons to sustain a title challenge. And what's in there is perhaps surprising...

🚨 Episode 299 - Brammed Up 🚨

The panel assemble to discuss not two, but one game, after Tuesday’s late postponement.

We also look ahead to the best away day going! 🐠

Join us! 🇧🇪

on.soundcloud.com/hGPT8ZbHzb5Z...

📸 Donald Wilson