Steve Clark

Day of the Dead(ball) Because there's nothing spookier than a well worked set piece

The post is here: open.substack.com/pub/jagalyti...

There are some post set piece shot specialists - Tony Watt from indirect free kicks and Findlay Marshall from throw ins.

Meanwhile Arbroath are incredibly efficient at generating shots from corners and throw ins and Morton have a stellar conversion rate of shots from corners.

I’m just setting a baseline, I’m preparation for future analysis. St Johnstone create more than ten more set pieces than they concede which is pretty impressive

Preview image for the latest Jagalytics post, with the title “day of the dead(ball)”

In the interests of matching the narrative on football analytics online this week, and the theme of the day, today’s post is all about set pieces…or dead (geddit) balls.

The funny old game: What advanced data tells us about Thistle's keepers Goalies can fit into one of three distinct categories, so where do Clarke and Budinauckas' strengths lie?

Post is here: open.substack.com/pub/thethist...

As a bonus, I made an oblique reference to Dad’s Army, and a more obvious one to Saint and Greavsie. Because the kids love that.

Preview image for The Thistle sickle, with title “The funny old game: What advanced data tells us about Thistle’s keepers”

In case you missed it, my latest post at The Thistle went out yesterday: This time, looking at the three types of keeper in the Championship - Sentinels, Builders and Watchdogs.

Jagalytics Power Rating (30 October) Updated as of 30 October 2025

You can find the full intereactive chart here: datawrapper.dwcdn.net/v07bQ/1/

The only other team who are out of whack with the 'real' table are Arbroath who are currently outperforming the Power Ratings by three places. I expect the table to - eventually - shake out more like the Power Ratings, but Arbroath are still overperforming expectations

St. Johnstone are back on track and are 60 points ahead of us in first place. County are in 4th place, basically level with Raith Rovers now. The table looks worse for County, who are down in 7th, but the Power Ratings has them as performing at playoff team level now

The weekend loss to Raith Rovers sets us back somewhat - we're back down basically to where we started the season on 665 points. Whilst this is a bit of a drop, we remain one of only two teams who have maintained pre-season levels.

latest jagalytics power ratings have us dropping back to 665 - just a couple of points higher than the start of the season

Latest Jagalytics Power Ratings are up - sorry for the delay; the data providers have taken a while to flow through info from the midweek game last week, and I haven't had time to tweak my code to adjust for it.

Pivotal positions At sixes ... and more sixes

The post is here: open.substack.com/pub/jagalyti...

Meanwhile: The original stimulus for the research came from a question asked by Matt on @drawloseordraw.bsky.social this week - listen to the latest episode for my first stab at answering!

I’m borrowing ideas from others to help understand how we play differently when we have each of the three options in the anchor role - including area of effect measures from @scoutedftbl.com, and buildup pockets from Footovision.

From Stanway’s chaotic catalyst to Smyth’s cultured conductor, the players who’ve inhabited the role differ, and so does the team around them. I dig into the numbers that show the distinction.

Preview pic for latest Jagalytics post, titled “pivotal positions”

A bit late, I’ve published my latest article, reading for the journey to The Lang Toon. This week: comparing our defensive midfield options.

I'll update again later in the week, but given the difference in power ratings, Thistle's home advantage gives us an edge. The Power Ratings have Thistle winning probability at 46%, Ayr's at 16% and a draw at 38%.

Dunfermline and Arbroath both add a few ratings points with good wins. I expect Morton and County to pick up in the league in the weeks ahead.

Ayr are solid in 3rd place, almost back to preseason rating. We'd probably hold onto second in the power ratings even if Ayr win tomorrow, but it'll be close. Ayr are comfortably ahead of fourth place County, who are just a sliver ahead of Morton.

St. Johnstone's surprise loss to Arbroath pegs them back a bit, alongside some other recent underperformances, and they now have a lead of just 16 ratings points from Thistle in second

St. Johnstone are down to 706 in the jagalytics power ratings, with thistle growing to 690 and Ayr at 662.

With the catch-up game tomorrow evening, I've run the Jagalytics Power Ratings again to show the impact of Thistle's win against Ross County, and the other weekend games.

We're all about forward motion here Never look back

It's not perfect, but it's a good predictor of how the league will go. We need to keep this up! Read the post here: open.substack.com/pub/jagalyti...

Thistle and St. Johnstone also spread the load across passers and runners more than the rest of the league, whilst teams who rely on more central (or older) creative players tend to rely more heavily on passing.

Two St. Johnstone players in particular are having exceptional seasons this year. Ben McPherson is the second best ball progressor by running in the league, and both of our CBs and Oisin Smyth are top ten for pass progression

St. Johnstone and Thistle are progressing the ball better than the rest of the league this season, and it is very well correlated with points per game. We've massively upped our game this year.

Quote from the post: "Ball progression doesn't win you the league, but teams that win leagues progress the ball more often and more effectively than anyone else."

The team that wins the league - or the ones that challenge - tend to be the ones who do this best. Moving the ball forward significantly in a single action (passing or running), whilst still retaining control. Falkirk and Livi were exceptional at it last year.

Preview image for the latest jagalytics post, with a scatter chart in the background showing points per game as a function of progressive actions. The title is 'We're all about forward motion here'

Ready for another weekend, I'm going back to a topic I've explored before - and what I think is the best predictor of points accumulated rate. This week's post looks at ball progression

What chance do teams have a of win? (17-18 October) Games on Friday 17 and Saturday 18 October (Thistle are at home to Ross County). Based on current Jagalytics Power Ratings.

...derby, which surprised me a bit. That being said, it's almost as likely that that game ends in a draw as a win for Dunfermline. It still feels these expected results don't quite match the eye test, so I'm interested to see how the games play out. datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9M6ue/1/