The Quin

Iran and Unexpected Long Wars [Updated] Short wars and interventions, regardless of the intentions of those who design and order them, can easily become long wars. While the attacks have begun, campaign duration remains unknown.

That's regime change.
"Regime assassination. This is different to regime change because it is focused on removing a few senior leaders and then seeing what happens (essentially FAFO)." Quote from mickryan.substack.com/p/iran-and-u...

FT article said existing insurance contracts cancelled and new higher prices offered.

Goodbye.

No. I'm saying what Budanov said the other day. Putin's death will change nothing. The war will only be over when the Russian empire breaks up.
I would advocate the West gave far more help to speed it up but the current approach is good.

Never overestimate the importance of figurehead because that has lead to so many mistakes before. I'll say goodbye now because although we are on the same side you're never going to change you mind about the most effective ways to fight.

Bombing Iran Is Easy. What Comes Next Is Not. It comes down to a straightforward question: What’s the plan to translate military force into political change?

Yes, but Putin isn't the central nervous system, only the figurehead. Read this you might learn something. www.thebulwark.com/p/bombing-ir...

Yeah, I was agreeing with you so no need to argue.

I said nothing about grunts. Break the regime's ability to operate. Killing the leader has little to no effect on that.

It's not me that fears it but I'm in no position to call that bluff.

That's only part of the story. You need to beat the entire regime. Toppling the leader doesn't do that. In Iran the news focus is on the death of the leader but if you look at what is being targeted and hit, it's all the apparatus of the regime.

The Americans killed the leader of the Taliban 30 times and lost the war. It doesn't work.

Here's a way to look at it. Kill the leader and they just appoint another one. You have to break them all the way from top to bottom.

I don't want spend time arguing about it with you, but that's not what history tells me.

I'd just stick to what has been working so far. Venezuela and and Iran haven't changed yet. Winning a war is far more complex than killing a leader.

Quick solutions to complex problems rarely work out well. In mountaineering they call the area above 8000m the dead zone. Where the body regenerates slower than it is dying. That's where Russia is right now.

Same problems. Better to do what they have been doing and slowly bleed them dry. Russia will collapse under its own weight, the same way USSR did.

I know that. But the answer to your question remains the same because the West is scared to call his bluff or deal with whoever follows him.

Because he inherited the Soviet nuclear arsenal.

In my day getting rid of a dictator without lifting a finger yourself was considered a triumph of statesmanship

But, but, Vance promised it wouldn't be a long war and that's over 3 months away.

Zelensky

Meanwhile Russia has condemned the US. He's playing his cards well.

Feel I should bung a cartoon in for good measure, so as not to let the side down.

In the coming days, both Iran hawks and Iran supporters will try to gaslight you.

Two things can be true at once:

1) Trump and Netanyahu are untrustworthy and have defended the strikes dishonestly

2) Iran’s regime is a real threat that must be addressed

They unobliterated it so now it needs reobliterating. A once every 2 month chore.

Normally true, but when did you have a Commander in Chief who might have forgotten what he wanted to do and just order a TACO instead?

This a war noone should win.

Learning to emulate their master.

They kept the gas pipe running until the contract expired and then didn't renew it. I guess it wasn't worth getting distracted by law suits over.