Wills Roman

Wait meaning where they finish in draft order pre lottery or standings?

Listing “saquon ruined parlays 😢” as a top headline from a weekend with 2 CFB semifinals and 5 wild card NFL games so far shows how far they’ve lost the plot.

It is so so bad.

Crazy that you think any kick/go decision making should be influenced by wanting to “get your kicker in a rhythm”

Unfortunately they weren’t letting us in even if Clemson lost the ACC title game.

You are the one ignoring everything else but the numbers next to the teams, use sense

In this context, sure

Then why didn’t army get in??

Alabama didn’t deserve to get in, I am not arguing that.

But Indiana didn’t show anything against a good team this year to show they deserved to be in.

And how does that make any sense if teams don’t play the same games

1000% it’s about resume, not brands

And the committee isn’t doing a good enough job considering resumes vs just avoiding losses, they need to improve.

Exactly!! SMU got put on easy street and were rewarded handsomely for it, it’s terrible.

We have never had as unbalanced p5 schedules as we do now with the mega conferences, that’s the reason Indiana is in

But just calling it a Big10 schedule now isn’t enough context, when you avoid like 5 of the top 6 teams in a conference and lose to the only one you play, that has to be considered.

Why do we have to accept that? Then it’s just a scheduling ranking/playoff rather than actually considering who had the best year. That’s tragic.

Not arguing for bama. Their resume (including losing to those bad teams) wasn’t enough, just like Indiana’s wasn’t enough

I’m not arguing for bama at all. But indiana just automatically getting in because they were 11-1 and ignoring all the context sucks.

We can’t just pretend all p5 schedules are created equal, they need to evaluate resumes, not just sort by record and then tweak.

This would make sense, if they played the same schedule, but they don’t.

Why should Indiana get every benefit of the doubt just because they got to play the bottom of the Big10?

This chart axis going down to 40 is very funny and slightly misleading when 20 looks like average.

My point is what makes Winston particularly tough to adjust here is he is making poor late decisions in areas of the field. That should be baked in, not adjusted out! Theres a happy medium somewhere, but obviously would be very tough

The interception adjustment is based on returns too? So basically adjusting up if the INTs had long/valuable returns?

I think that’s misguided because Winston is throwing late in areas other QBs wouldn’t because of the risk of big returns or pick 6s, feels like that shouldn’t be adjusted away.

Caroline was a good player, very strategic and thought clearly.

But shame a move of that caliber couldn’t have been done against a player like Rachel who seems to be in the drivers seat now

Actually ended up being way deeper (and better) than it felt like in the beginning.

The title ‘MVP’ is so flawed and pointless. People want to look at as “the player of the year” type of award, and they shouldn’t be called stupid for thinking that way.

If it was truly the MVP give it to mahomes every year.

Clearly offsides there Seth.

Josh grazed Buck with a right hook here

I’m way out of my depth on this but originally thought a team elo factor could account for this, but that doesn’t help with a clear drop off in one given week due to a major QB injury either.

Understood. Feels like with many moving parts it would be difficult to capture a team value at a point in time rather than taking a large sample through the season.

Thanks Aaron!

Aaron do opponent adjustments change over time? Like is playing the cowboys in week 1 with dak a different adjustment then playing them later with cooper rush? Or are they retroactively changed as a team gets worse/better throughout the year?

Zach to bluesky soon?

Was there ever a thought he could be this good this fast?