Temur Umarov

Really enjoyed this episode of Turan Tales by @aga-pik.bsky.social with @skhashimov.bsky.social about Dushanbe.

From Dubai to Donetsk: The Kyrgyzstan–UAE Transit Nexus in Russia’s Clandestine Starlink Supply Chain by Sergey Sukhankin

Central Asia has seen a significant increase in a covert system of re-export flows back to Russia. Much of this trade is lawful, but investigative reporting & trade data patterns indicate that certain categories of tech have transited the region before reaching RUS open.substack.com/pub/thesarat...

Central Asia's transition puzzle: A quiet coup, constitution-tinkering, and a vanishing leader A high-level dismissal in Kyrgyzstan, rushed constitutional reform in Kazakhstan, and the Tajik president's lengthy absence reveal transition pressures beneath the surface.

Had a great conversation with @peterleonard1.bsky.social:

Central Asia's transition puzzle: A quiet coup, constitution-tinkering, and a vanishing leader. open.substack.com/pub/havli/p/...

Where Does the Split in the Ruling Tandem Leave Kyrgyzstan? Despite its reputation as an island of democracy in Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan appears to be on the brink of becoming a personalist autocracy.

Sadyr Japarov appears to be on the brink of achieving what none of his predecessors managed: making Kyrgyzstan a personalist autocracy.

My latest for @ceip-politika.bsky.social: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Retaliation, Raids and Regional Integration,

A BIG thank you to Catherine Putz, editor at @thediplomat.com
& @tumarov.bsky.social of @carnegierussia.bsky.social for being on Spotlight on Central Asia to review regional cooperation in 2025.(open.spotify.com/episode/1Sye...) And thanks to our sponsors @timesca.com the Oxus Society!

Ahead of President Putin's arrival in Kyrgyzstan for high-level talks and the CSTO summit, a colossal welcome billboard was erected in Bishkek. This display was positioned with deliberate precision, effectively obscuring the Ukrainian Embassy from view...

Алмазбек Атамбаев раскритиковал деятельность Садыра Жапарова и вспомнил друзей президента Бывший президент Алмазбек Атамбаев сделал открытое обращение к президенту Садыру Жапарову и раскритиковал его работу не только на посту главы государства, но и ранее. Он надеется, что в стране снова б...

Former Kyrgyz president Almazbek Atambayev comes out with a scathing public statement against the current authoritarian regime under Sadyr Japarov. Lots of people will roll their eyes because Atambayev contributed to the undermining of democratic institutions
kaktus.media/doc/535418_a...

Read the full article @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

The current optimistic rhetoric is fraught w/ danger. Trump may eventually demand more (distancing from China/Russia) as an ultimatum, forcing the region to make a difficult choice:

1. Incur the wrath of RU/CN
2. Disappoint Trump and become more dependent on RU/CN

Local leaders see Russia as their main security guarantor and primary threat. They will not jeopardize their loyalty. The prevailing regional sentiment: U.S. leaders come and go, but Russia’s does not change.

Washington has yet to launch a single major infrastructure project comparable to China's Belt and Road Initiative or Russia's new nuclear plant deals. The region's poor investment climate and deep saturation by Moscow/Beijing remain huge barriers.

Despite the hype, the core C5+1/B5+1 business formats and the key focus on rare earth minerals were actually launched under the previous administration. Trump is just a more effective implementer because his style is ideologically closer to the region's authoritarian leaders.

Why trump is a better partner?

Central Asian rulers were thrilled when Trump cracked down on USAID, NED, VOA and RFEL—organizations that had long irritated their regimes. This ideological alignment guaranteed him their support.

US attention is geopolitical gold

For Central Asian regimes, cooperation with Washington is invaluable. The US is the only power both Russia and China take seriously, giving local leaders critical international weight and domestic legitimacy they can't get elsewhere.

Central Asia is adapting its entire ideological agenda to impress one man: Donald Trump.

The recent C5+1 summit was a new high point in US-Central Asian ties. But is this rapprochement real, or just risk? 🧵🧵🧵

(1/4) #CentralAsia is among the world's most vulnerable regions to #climatechange. And while some countries are heavily reliant on #fossilfuels, there is potential for #renewables across this entire part of the world.
Let's take a closer look...

Why Is Central Asia Buying Trump’s Attention? The current U.S. administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract Washington’s attention, and there is no longer any need for demonstra...

While the active presence of China and Russia in Central Asia is nothing new, the current level of attention from the U.S. is unusual for a region located far from the major global crises. @tumarov.bsky.social explains why Central Asia remains in Trump's focus: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Is Central Asia Buying Trump’s Attention? The current U.S. administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract Washington’s attention, and there is no longer any need for demonstra...

The current US administration is the easiest one so far for Central Asia to work with. Business interests can be used to attract attention & there's no need for demonstrative distancing from Russia or commitment to democratic reforms. @ceip-politika.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

China Has Flooded Central Asia With Electric Cars—the Impact Will Be Long-Lasting By entering this new stage of development of the automotive industry via Chinese electric cars, Central Asia will eventually be forced to adopt Chinese standards for the industry’s development, integr...

While the West is using customs duties to try to head off an influx of Chinese electric cars, the countries of Central Asia are doing everything they can to welcome them. Temur Umarov and Roman Vakulchuk assess the consequences for the region: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Can’t Russia and China Agree on the Power of Siberia 2 Gas Pipeline? Negotiations are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time.

Negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Could Trigger a Central Asian Water Crisis The ambitious irrigation project is becoming a source of growing tension in Central Asia, but none of the region’s countries have been able to come up with an alternative solution.

Water shortages in Central Asia will worsen significantly when Afghanistan completes a canal diverting substantial volumes of water from the Amu Darya River. And it could escalate regional tensions, writes Galiya Ibragimova. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moscow’s Xenophobic Migration Policy Is Impacting Relations With Central Asia By stirring up anti-migrant sentiment to distract Russian society from the war in Ukraine, Moscow is alienating its allies in Central Asia. Following Azerbaijan’s example, Central Asian countries are ...

Moscow’s anti-immigrant campaign at home is proving increasingly costly abroad. For the first time in years, Central Asian countries are reassessing their relations with Moscow, writes Galiya Ibragimova: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

China Is Using Vocational Training Centers to Rebuild Its Image in Central Asia In Central Asia, Beijing is learning to adapt. The era of raw economic assertiveness is giving way to a more nuanced strategy that fuses investment with education, infrastructure with human capital, a...

Why is Beijing opening a flurry of technical training centers known as Luban Workshops in Central Asia, and what is their significance? Edward Lemon and Bradley Jardine explain.

YouTube video by Kloop на русском Могу и «отлупить»: культ силы Ташиева

Props to @tumarov.bsky.social for very skillfully describing the cult of raw power being created by Tashiev, the Sopranos-esque head of Kyrgyzstan’s rapidly expanding security services

youtu.be/cQeb5cdHs1I?...

Beyond the much-discussed trade figures, new projects, & investments, the China+Central Asia summit holds another dimension. W/ @peterleonard1.bsky.social @capsunlock.bsky.social we delved into the visibility of local agency operating behind the scenes:

pod.link/1781868199

China is winning over Central Asia – but its growing influence could fuel a backlash Beijing has made vast inroads while Russia and the US are distracted, but must play the long game. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.

Grateful to Lim Min Zhang for quoting me in @thestraitstimes.bsky.social on the #China–#CentralAsia summit!

We discussed forum diplomacy, public opinion, and elite–society divides.

Always a pleasure to be quoted with @tumarov.bsky.social.

www.straitstimes.com/opinion/chin...

«Учебник автократа». Темур Умаров — о том, как из Кыргызстана делают диктатуру Президент Кыргызстана ускоренными темпами превращает страну в классический авторитарный режим — с подавлением СМИ, зачисткой оппозиции, устрашением элит и культом «своего парня у власти». Эксперт по Ц...

Great interview by @tumarov.bsky.social where he meticulously outlines the rapid authoritarian consolidation underway in Kyrgyzstan.

Japarov is very diligently speed-running his way to authoritarianism in attempt to catch up with neighboring states

storage.googleapis.com/qurium/kloop...

Expert: Russia and China will not clash in Central Asia – interview A notable shift is taking place among the five Central Asian countries — instead of clashing, they are working to consol...

For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, none of the five Central Asian governments have any grievances against one another.

Had a great conversation on Central Asia with LRT: www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...

Central Asia's New Position In Global Politics A lot has changed in Central Asia in the more than three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As countries in the region seek to loosen Moscow and Beijing's grip on the region, how far...

It was an honor to be the guest of the final episode of THE podcast on Central Asia, the Majlis Podcast, hosted by the one&only @pannierb.bsky.social. Together w/ Bakyt Beshimov & @nargiskassenova.bsky.social, we've discussed Central Asia's position in global politics: www.rferl.org/a/majlis-rus...

Had a great conversation with Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska for her new media Turan Tales on China-Central Asia:

Subscribe to her podcast on any platform you use: plinkhq.com/i/1799753984...