Andrew Gelston

a group of people are standing around a man who is wearing a number 10 shirt ALT: a group of people are standing around a man who is wearing a number 10 shirt

Or maybe i didn't understand your post

America does not win. Exxon is going to charge the market price not a special price to American's. WTI will be a bit cheaper; not enough to matter

Perhaps ONLY Russia and (I think) Brazil win because they are net exporters with the state that owns production

If grounded purely in market forces, the price increase would need to be incomprehensibly large.

So yah, I think there will be some policy involved unless we want to have riots by July.

So yah, it absolutely can break out as people in Dubai sell their gold for bitcoin (gold priced in USD, you get bitcoin at $100k/bitcoin)

Then when back in Canada, sell your bitcoin for CAD andddddd see if bitcoin is $100k lol

It's a freaking illiquid commodity, people do not want to admit that

You pay desperate people very little for their goods when in the dangerous location (or charge them ALOT for the currency - bitcoin price)

Then you sell their goods for much more currency (so lower currency price, cause BTC)

It's like economics 601 with bitcoin NOT being a currency but a commodity

I disagree, except everyone needs to move their money right now

if it breaks out its short term

Which is the correct thing - you want to preserve the 'valuable to society' oil use cases and not the 'pleasure' ones.

I don't know how much jet/car travel is 'pleasure' but it's a hell of a lot more then say, trucking food to your grocery store. I think 0% of that is for pleasure

It's why in the past when way less serious instances of this happened policies targeted reducing consumption towards driving

Odd/Even meant you could not do a long road trip that required a refuel in the US. Reduced consumption even if the consumer will pay

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odd%E2%...

Don't get me wrong, it won't be as 'even' as I presented it because plenty of manufacturing isn't setup with a contingency so will go bankrupt and 'stop consuming oil'

But if I assume too much lower oil usage in mining, the economy collapses entirely. Or trucking of goods / shipping

I did not include truck usage of oil, seaborn usage of oil, or industrial usage of oil (electricity/manufacturing) for a simple reason

If we cut those, the knock on effects are significant.

Driving less for pleasure, flying less for pleasure are things that are elastic to price.

It's also very bad for mining, but don't worry, we're just going to increase the price of everything else that uses metals too lol

very good for ELECTRIFICATION of mining tho

Moreover it is an economic disaster for everyone, everywhere. INCLUDING the countries that net export oil - it deciminates their citizens

More of something > less of something always for the 'person'

Brazilian real will strengthen a ton at $500/b oil but may get civil unrest fast. policy can help

Cars = 24 million a day, slash to 12
Jet = 8 million a day, slash to 4

12+4 = 18 million

And then the reminder 2 million is me being conservative, I'll stop spilling so much gas when refueling

What price would it take for the 'free market' to half those two things? No idea

But it's very high

Like, at what oil price is it worth designing and building UNDERWATER oil tankers?

$400? $700?

Cause 20% of global PRODUCTION is alot. We have to cut car travel and jet travel by about HALF.

That's right, half as many car trip miles and half as many airplane miles

Losses = ~20 million barrels

In my body, where the shame gland should be, there is a second awesome gland.

True story.

This is unlike trump where there is a to be identified type of gland

Yup, same take. Aligns with the French news a couple days ago

Mutual fear needed. As stupid as that seems

@nuclearanthro.bsky.social I think this is good actually. Enjoy it Putin

Finland allows the import of nuclear weapons. Minister of Defense Antti Häkkänen (Congress) announced this at a press conference on Thursday evening. According to current law, bringing nuclear weapons into Finnish territory is explicitly prohibited. According to Häkkänen, the ban enacted in the 1980s is no longer relevant. – The legislation does not meet the needs that Finland has as a NATO member, Häkkänen said. According to Häkkänen, transporting a nuclear explosive into Finnish territory is permitted in situations where it is related to the military defense of Finland. In other situations, bringing a nuclear explosive into Finland would continue to be prohibited. According to Häkkänen, the situation in Finland has changed with NATO membership. According to Häkkänen, similar total bans are rare in NATO countries. – The change aims to provide full protection for Finland in all situations, Häkkänen said. At the press conference, Häkkänen refused to give examples of situations in which nuclear weapons could be brought to Finland. He argued that NATO's nuclear weapons policy is secret. However, he said that Finland does not seek nuclear weapons on its territory. NATO nuclear exercises also do not intend to bring nuclear weapons to Finnish territory in the future. Lifting the restrictions requires amendments to the Criminal Code and the Nuclear Energy Act. In practice, lifting the restrictions means, for example, that nuclear weapons could be transported through Finland in some situations. The current Nuclear Energy Act contains restrictions that prohibit nuclear explosives in all their forms on Finnish soil. The news is updated.

Ok so how do I invest

Still convinced Gemini wins cause they are integrating with every google product, slowly

It is the only Ai product that accurately estimated the Germanium EBITDA bump / the smelter / the reason for the timing being Q1 next year.

Holy shit trying out the new google finance (beta - sign up through labs) with the personalization and gemini features it is.... way better then probably anything but BBG for research.

And I'm just figuring out personalization

Suora lähetys: Puolustusministeri Häkkänen vahvistaa: Suomi sallii ydinaseiden maahantuonnin Suomi purkaa ydinaseiden maahantuonnin täyskiellon. Hallitus esittää, että jatkossa ydinräjähteen tuominen olisi mahdollista jos se liittyy Suomen puolustukseen.

Holy shit

FINLAND IS GETTING NUKES. FINALLY

yle.fi/a/74-20213808

I'll probably explain my 'bullish specifically on brazil' thesis in depth, but later

1. They have beef
2. They have a good stable government now, shocking i know, but the attempted US back coup there already failed
3. They have Petrobras, with its oil revenue
4. They have coffee
5. other things

iShares Brazil LTN BRL Govt Bond UCITS ETF (DE) | BLTN The fund aims to track the performance of the J.P. Morgan Brazilian Zero-Coupon (LTN) Bond Index (Index) as closely as possible.

Best way to buy it is international -> fixed income -> Amsterdam (NL) exchange.

Your broker will covert it over to the US pink sheet symbol but that doesn't matter at all they'll let you sell it however (fidelity)

IBLBF:PNK

www.blackrock.com/no/individua...

This is just extreme leverage to the USD weakening vs Brazilian Real as it is BRL denominated zero coupon bonds in a fund with a .35% expense ratio (very low for this type of thing).

It's BOXX, but for Brazilian gov't bonds not US ones.

And I made my first move into it today!

Yah, diversification away from mining a bit is important so i'm betting that this is going to go up as long as trump is president

And the accumulating fund compounds monthly (14% right now).

Brazil sells their bonds in ultra weird ways.

Tl;dr - the key question

Who will pay more, the military or the tech industry

LOL and the answer to that is: The military but then the tech industry gets data center build out constrainted by that one element and the price changes like memory prices did

It's a very odd element. Super cool

Titan Mining's boost from germanium alone is going to be about $75m/yr in EBITDA. and the key thing is they can start as soon as the smelter in Tennessee is done / are stockpiling until then

It's a byproduct so there aren't pure plays, found 1 that is close to a pure play in a week but still unsure

Drone Warfare and Germanium Supply - Quest Metals Rising drone warfare is accelerating demand for germanium, straining supply chains and threatening availability for semiconductors and defense tech.

So it's a double whammy - the Data Center build out means price insensitive demand for germanium that is 'capital' (could be recycled later, in theory)

Now the rise of drone warfare makes germanium literally like Tungsten or Antimony - expended per use

www.questmetals.com/blog/drone-w...

Fiber-optic web: How the use of drones on the frontlines impacts the environment – Ukraine War Environmental Consequences Work Group Inha Pavlyi Relatively recently, a new technology for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) appeared on the frontlines in Russia’s war in Ukraine: fiber-optic linked guidance. When a drone is launched forwa...

For drones, non obvious but you use light EXTREMELY highly doped germanium in glass to guide the drone (FPV operator)

This is the 100% way to have a non jammable drone. It matters only in literal warzones, like Ukraine. The middle east has not escalated to this

uwecworkgroup.info/fiber-optic-...

Germanium Chokepoint: China's Grip on AI Fiber China controls 60% of germanium, a critical fiber optic dopant. AI GPU racks need 36x more fiber. With prices up 200%, the $690B buildout faces a chokepoint.

Actually even more critical. High speed / extra quality fiberoptics

So for data centers, obvious the demand. The corning deal for fiber is going to use a fuckton of Germanium
introl.com/blog/germani...

You guys know my obsession with Germanium is because it is likely the next constraint to the Data Center build out and is currently the constraint to drone warfare in a long term conflict.

Both of which are hitting and no one seems to know how you get germanium - cause it was only china doing it.