Cedric Chin

What you care about are:

1. What are the outcomes I care about and how are they affected?
2. What are the new actions and outcomes that exist here?
3. What are the relative value of these possible outcomes?
4. What are some causal mechanisms I can use?

That's it. Takes are not useful.

Actually, whilst you're at it, ALSO ignore that AI hypester take.

For the simple reason that it doesn't matter, because takes don't matter. We don't remember pro and anti Internet takes (nor pro or anti electricity takes) because they are irrelevant and a distraction.

Too many correlational studies, not enough causal arguments.

No idea, completely ignoring it. :)

There is a super power in ignoring things.

You should probably ignore that AI doomer take.

Unless you consumed every Internet doomer take in the late 90s.

In which case, you've learnt nothing, go right ahead.

This was lovely. And as a fellow writer who still writes the old fashioned way, it hits home.

The great benefit of computer sequencers is that they remove the issue of skill, and replace it with the issue of judgement. With Cubase or Photoshop, anybody can actually do anything, and you can make stuff that sounds very much like stuff you’d hear on the radio, or looks very much like anything you see in magazines. So the question becomes not whether you can do it or not, because any drudge can do it if they’re prepared to sit in front of the computer for a few days, the question then is, "Of all the things you can now do, which do you choose to do? " --Brian Eno

Also, this Brian Eno quote has been really stuck in my head for weeks:

"The great benefit of computer sequencers is that they remove the issue of skill, and replace it with the issue of judgement.

... the question then is, "Of all the things you can now do, which do you choose to do?""

#289: The Imperative of Developing Business Acumen That darn data. It’s so complicated and fragmented and gap-filled and noisy that no amount of time is ever enough to truly get to the bottom of all of its complexity. As a result, it’s pretty easy to fill all of our time handling as much of that underlying data messiness as possible. At what cost, though? It’s easy for the analyst’s connection to the business to suffer as they get mired (too) deeply in the data and lose sight of the broader business needs. In this episode, the gang had a chat about business acumen—what it is, how to develop it, and why it’s a must-have for any data or analytics role.

Full podcast episode (and this goes into much deeper than just Commoncog, obviously — it talks about how to ramp up on the business you're advising when you're in a data role): analyticshour.io/2026/01/20/...

Although I should add: Commoncog is about non-VC-backed models of business.

So it's not likely to be anything close to what you might expect from the venture-backed-content-industrial complex.

With that caveat, though, I very obviously agree with Michael! ;-)

Was a pleasant surprise when I heard Michael Helbling call out Commoncog as a really great place to build business acumen:

"If you're in a role where you're trying to ramp up on your business acumen, Commoncog might be a great resource to leverage."

PS: corollary to this — because generalised life advice sucks, you want a collection of mentors who know your context.

But they're not going to bite if you are not also an effective person. So go be an effective person! Take action on advice, etc.

x.com/ejames_c/st...

Be Good To Your Mentors Mentor relationships can be absolutely wonderful over the arc of a career. This is a simple way to think about finding and keeping good mentors.

And the final corollary is that you want to always be grateful and respectful to old mentors, even ones you've surpassed on moved on from. Because they've helped you and it's the right thing to do.

This still works for me: commoncog.com/be-good-to-...

And I hope it helps you.

That's it! That's how you get a mentor.

There are a couple of follow-ups:

1. If you do not act on the advice, no mentor. Simple.
2. If the person does not want to meet or give you advice anymore, they are not meant to be a mentor. Simple.
3. Be judicious with the qns you ask.

That is, you take action on the last answer the person gives you.

That way you can come back and say some form of "the last time we met, you told me to do X and Y. I did X and here's what happened ... Thank you so much for the advice. I have a new problem now ..."

Now it's actually quite EASY to find business folks who will answer your questions at least once.

The problem is: how do you ensure that they continue to answer your questions over time?

The answer is simple: you earn the right to do so.

Stop Looking For Mentors You can look for mentors, but that ain't fun - so just think of a question to ask someone.

The basic observation is this: "a mentor is simply someone who answers questions more than once."

I got this from the anons at StaySaaSy, and it's great: staysaasy.com/career/2021...

Defining a mentor like this is great because it removes all the ceremony. It's also stupidly clarifying.

I was asked recently how I find and keep business mentors. I realise that my essay on this topic is now four (!!!) years old.

At this point I know more than a handful of senior folks who have shared this repeatedly with junior people.

And it's a REALLY simple protocol.

The Asian Conglomerate Series Anyone who has grown up in Asia has lived in the shadow of the great conglomerates. Conglomerates are the norm here; most of the products and services we consume or interact with are owned by a small group of companies, and controlled by a smaller group of tycoons. What can

And link to the full (now complete) series: commoncog.com/the-asian-c...

“This One Can Make Money Or Not?” To do well in business, it helps to want to make money. The end of the Asian Conglomerate Series.

This essay marks the end of a year-long Asian Conglomerate series, which examines a whole range of Asian tycoons.

All the tycoons we studied were commercial. Some more so than others.

And perhaps there's a lesson in that.

Link to essay: commoncog.com/this-one-ca...

Asking such questions repeatedly will lead to a natural 'intensity and pragmatism' that Graham describes — a trait that you likely want in a manager if you're seeding new hedge funds.

But it's also a trait that most of us can do with, especially if we're doing business.

In Singlish, there’s a more colourful way to say this: “This one can make money or not?” And the follow-up: “If cannot make money, why you do?”

For Singaporeans (and Malaysians) this is a more natural way to focus the mind.

e.g. "You win that argument can make money meh?"

It turns out that wanting to make money is a good thing if you want to do business over the very long term.

This sounds so obvious as to be slightly dumb. But a lot of people in ostensibly commercial roles don’t ACTUALLY want to make money.

To wit:

But the property is more subtle than you might think. See, for instance:

The term has been around for awhile, but I like @GrahamDuncanNYC's articulation of it — he has this wonderful bit in his Invest Like The Best interview, where he describes the property as "I'd rather make money than be right", in addition to a long-term orientation.

Being 'commercial' is the nice way of putting it, of course. (Special thanks to Goldman for inventing this term.)

It has a relatively simple definition:

1. You want to make money ...
2. ... over the long term.

Most people don't actually think about this as a good thing.

A week ago I subjected 9000+ subscribers to the most Singlish that I've ever put into a Commoncog essay. 🤪

This piece talks about an under-examined trait: 'being commercial'.

You know how some folks are very good at making money?

Yeah, that.

Stop Worrying About Survivorship Bias With This One Weird Trick Why successful investors and businesspeople tell you to learn from business history — and what they do so survivorship bias isn’t a problem.

For more info, along with the full excerpts and the complete argument, read: commoncog.com/stop-worryi...

An explanation of Commoncog's Calibration Case Method, a method to accelerate expertise in business and investing.For more on the method: https://commoncog.c... Commoncog's Calibration Case Method

This anecdote was remarkable enough that I made it the centrepiece of our explainer on Commoncog's case method (the 'Calibration Case Method'): www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3D...

You can apply the method that Buffett used to teach Graham to your own life. Here's how:

A Most Unlikely Master of Capital Allocation If the most unlikely, most un-businesslike person could become a masterful capital allocator late in her life, then perhaps you could, too.

So, basically Buffett took his collection of annual reports (which he'd organised according to 'business concepts') and then started exposing Graham to the various concepts through these real world cases.

Graham, of course, became a VERY good CEO. commoncog.com/unlikely-ma...

Now on to Buffett. Surprisingly, I found that the best piece of advice on reading to learn business comes via Katharine Graham, the famous publisher of the Washington Post.

In the 70s, Buffett took Graham under her wing and taught her business, from scratch. Graham writes: