February Polling Average Update for the US Senate Dem Primary in Maine

Polling Avg (Change since Dec - 1 new poll)
🟪Platner: 47.2% (+3.6)
🟩Mills: 38.2% (+0.2)

Platner is not only hanging with the 2-term governor, but is likely ahead based on current polling #MEpolitics

Tomorrow is Special Election Tuesday in Maine!

HD94 in Lewiston will vote to replace retiring Rep Kristen Cloutier (D). City Councilor Scott Harriman (D) will face School Committee Member Janet Beaudoin (R).

2024 Result
ME House: D+19🔵
President: D+14🔵

#MEpolitics

This is for itemized contributions only

Maine-based:
🟦Dunlap: 81%
🟥LePage: 60%
🟦Wood: 8%

Senate -> House race candidate Jordan Wood is bringing in the most money in CD2

🟦Wood: $1.2M (Sen->CD2 in Nov)
🟥LePage: $300K
🟦Dunlap: $290K

LePage saw his numbers decline Q/Q while Wood is raising 4x his amount now that he is in the House race

Around 2/3 of Platner's money is coming from small dollar donators, well above both Mills and Collins

For itemized contributions, here is how much is coming from Mainers
🟦Platner: 21%
🟦Mills: 41%
🟥Collins: 9%

Contributions are coming from all over the country for all three

Q4 2025 campaign finance breakdown for the U.S. Senate and CD2 House race

Top line contributions: Platner Dominated
🟦Platner: $4.6M
🟦Mills: $2.7M
🟥Collins: $2.2M

No matter the matchup, the Dem and Collins will have plenty of cash to run a long, tough campaign #MEpolitics

The Census Bureau recently released their state-to-state migration estimates for 2024. Below is the net migration to/from Maine

🟦Highest Net:
NH -> ME: 1,258

🟥Lowest Net:
ME -> NC: 1,276

#MEpolitics

A very Maine article, partially using distance from a Hannaford to determine ruralness

Most rural towns:
10. Moscow
9. Eustis
8. Portage Lake
7. Jackman
6. Masardis
5. Danforth
4. Weston
3. Allagash
2. Moose River
1. Topsfield

#MEpolitics

www.bangordailynews.com/2026/01/21/p...

From my estimates, 11 State Senators contributed to a gubernatorial candidate (not including candidates who are currently serving).

Pingree received the most support among Dems, while James Libby is the only Republican to receive any donations from the ME Senate #MEpolitics

The lowest % from Mainers by party:

🔵King III: 33%
🔴Bush: 9%

#MEpolitics

2025 In-State Contributions by candidate for the ME Gov Race

Bellows has raised the most money from within Maine. Bellows also has the highest % of her money coming from Maine among Dems (70%). Wessels (90%) and Jones (85%) have the highest % from Mainers among Rs.

#MEpolitics

2025 Contributions by Candidate for the ME Gov Race
🔵Pingree: $1.4M
🔵Bellows: $1.1M
🔴Bush: $964K
🔵King III: $908K
🔵Jackson: $644K
🔴Charles: $541K
🟡Bennett: $529K
🔵Shah: $510K
🔴Jones: $440K
🔴McCarthy: $336K
🔴Midgley: $251K

#MEpolitics

As expected, State Senator Joe Baldacci has joined a small field of Democratic candidates in the ME02 House race. He'll face Jordan Wood and Matt Dunlap in the primary.

A recent Pan Atlantic poll for Baldacci showed him as the current favorite #mepolitics

www.bangordailynews.com/2026/01/12/p...

Active Voter changes in Maine from 2024-2025

Democrats: -4,711 (-0.5%)
Republicans: -1,670 (-0.2%)
Unenrolled: +23,317 (+2.2%)

The majority of the increase in unenrolled voters is due to No Labels withdrawing from Maine #MEpolitics

There have been three polls testing both Mills and Platner against Collins in a general election.

Polling Average
🔵Platner: 42%
🔴Collins: 40%

🔵Mills: 42%
🔴Collins: 42%

#MEpolitics

December Polling Average Update for the US Senate Dem Primary in Maine

Polling Average (Change since Nov - 2 new polls)
🟣Platner: 43.6% (-1.7)
🟢Mills: 38.0% (+5.7)

Polls in this race are showing everything from Platner+20 to Mills+10 #mepolitics

punchbowl.news/wp-content/u...

Pan Atlantic Research, as part of their 67th Omnibus Poll, also polled the CD2 race for Joe Baldacci, who is considering jumping in the race.

Dem Primary
Baldacci: 42%
Dunlap: 10%
Wood: 10%
Undecided: 38%

General
🔵Baldacci: 43%
🔴LePage: 44%

#mepolitics

Just under 500,000 people cast ballots in this off-year election. That represents:

1⃣47% of Active voters📈 (from Febs voter roll)
2⃣An increase of 82k voters from 2023📈

Maine continues to have some of the nation's best voter participation every election #mepolitics

Q1's No margin was 2.6pts larger than Q2s Yes margin. Populous southern, coastal Maine voted slightly more in favor of Q2, while central Maine voted stronger against Q1 #mepolitics

CD2 (using the current lines) voted No on Q3 back in 2016 by 23.6pts. A 30.7pt difference from their Yes on 2 vote this year

I’ll have to check on that. Definitely surprised by these results, would’ve thought No on 2 by double digits in CD2. Things have clearly changed!

2010
LePage: 42.5%
Cutler: 35.4%
Mitchell: 16.1%
LePage+7.1

2014
LePage: 52.5%
Michaud: 39.5%
Cutler: 8.0%
LePage+12.9

2022
LePage: 50.3%
Mills: 47.5%
Hunkler: 2.2%
LePage+2.8

Both No and 1 and Yes on 2 won in CD1 and CD2. The margins also far outpaced Harris' 2024 margin of 6.9pts.

Q1
CD1: No+41.9🟦
CD2: No+12.0🟦

Q2
CD1: Yes+41.2🟦
CD2: Yes+7.1🟦

2024 President
CD1: Harris+21.6🟦
CD2: Trump+9.0🟥

#mepolitics

Yes, I will post them soon. No on 1 and Yes on 2 won in both districts though

The SOS has released the official election results for the Nov 4 Referendums

Q1 (Voter ID and other restrictions) REJECTED by 28.4pts❌
Q2 (Red Flag Law) PASSED by 25.8pts✅

#mepolitics

Husband and Wife, David Haggan (SD10) and Kimberly Haggan (HD36), are the most conservative members of each respective state house according to the scorecard averages.

State Sen David Haggan Avg: 1.9%
State Rep Kim Haggan Avg: 0.4%

#mepolitics

2025 ME House Scorecard Average

Below are the average scores for ME House members across 5 different scorecards. (100%=Most Dem)

🟦Most Bipartisan Ds
O'Halloran-HD20: 67.8%
Bunker-HD75: 81.5%

🟥Most Bipartisan Rs
Lanigan-HD141: 11.6%
Foley-HD145: 11.3%

#mepolitics

2025 ME Sen Legislative Scorecard Average

Below are the average scores for ME State Senators across 5 different scorecards. (100%=Most Dem)

🟦Most Bipartisan Ds
Hickman-SD14: 78.8%
Baldacci-SD9: 86.2%

🟥Most Bipartisan Rs
Bennett-SD18: 50.7%
Bradstreet-SD15: 8.1%

#mepolitics

State Senator for Bangor and Hermon Joe Baldacci, brother of former Maine Governor John Baldacci, would be a solid candidate for the Democrats. He overperformed the top of the ticket by nearly 7pts in 2024 and is one of the most bipartisan lawmakers #mepolitics

x.com/polltracker2...