Per the new MPA scorecard, here are the most bipartisan legislators for each party in ‘25

GOP turned Indy Gov candidate Rick Bennett is the most bipartisan State Sen

GOP Rep Lucas Lanigan, indicted on domestic violence charges in March, is the most bipartisan R Rep #mepolitics

In 2020, Susan Collins had the third biggest drop in margin of any incumbent senator between two elections since 2000.

2014: Collins +37.0
2020: Collins +8.6 (-28.4)

Only Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Ted Stevens (R-AK) had bigger drops of 33pts and 70pts, respectively

#mepolitics

The GOP has been trying to win HD44 for years and with Bill Pluecker (I) term-limited they may finally get their chance.

HD104 and HD107 should be clear targets for Dems as Arata is term-limited and Cooper is in a Harris district which had an independent running in '24 #mepolitics

Here's an early look at the best pickup opportunities for each party in the ME House

🟦Democrats: 25
🟥Republicans: 12

Even a moderate midterm advantage for Democrats should leave them in a great position to expand their majority #mepolitics

The above is just for Senate elections but I agree. HD104 should be a top target for Dems. It moved left relative to the state in 2024 and only voted for Trump by ~2pts

SD8 is trending right relative to the state, but will likely stay in Dem hands with a favorable midterm environment and Tipping running again.

SD20 trended similarly to the state from '20 to '24. Bickford benefitted from a progressive independent running #mepolitics

Here's a very early look at where Dems and GOP will be looking to pick up seats in the 2026 ME Senate races.

Best Pickup Opps
Rs - SD8 (Mike Tipping - D)
🟥2024 Prez: R+2.1
🟦2024 ME Sen: D+0.6

Ds - SD20 (Bruce Bickford - R)
🟦2024 Prez: D+0.9
🟥2024 ME Sen: R+4.4

#mepolitics

With Paul LePage jumping into the ME-02 race, let's look back at his last two elections for governor. In 2014, LePage won CD2 and narrowly lost CD1. In his 2022 return to politics, he lost massive ground in CD1 and barely won CD2 in route to a 13pt statewide defeat #mepolitics

Yeah this feels like the year that basically everybody is jumping into the race, but I’m sure we can expect a few more Republican names to join by the end of the year with more name recognition. Most of these people are relative unknowns

We're still 11 months from the primaries, but the gubernatorial race is already heating up.

Democrats Hannah Pingree and Shenna Bellows have already raised over $500k with Bobby Charles on the Republican side bringing in over $300k #mepolitics

Lake Research Partners, Pan Atlantic Research and UNH have all tested Susan Collins’ favorability recently and come away varying results

Net Fav
4/17 LRP: -33 ⬇️
5/26 PAR: +4 ⬆️
6/23 UNH: -42 ⬇️

I would presume it’s closer to +4, but the data is saying otherwise #mepolitics

Big question for 2026: Who will Cooper Flagg be endorsing in the gubernatorial election? #mepolitics

What a gift for Democrats. Golden would be a heavy favorite if he does run for reelection.

LePage only won CD2 towns by 2.8pts when he ran against Janet Mills in the 2022 gubernatorial election #mepolitics

I’m running for the US Senate because after nearly 30 years in DC, Susan Collins hasn’t changed the system – she’s part of it.

Join our campaign today: ElectJordan.com

I cannot understand the logic. Hopefully we see a public H2H poll soon

300 LV survey from February on the favorability of both Janet Mills and Susan Collins

Net Favorability
🟦Mills: +5
🟥Collins: -33

Lots of weird stuff in this small sample, but shows that 77y/o Mills may have a decent chance at ousting 72y/o Collins #mepolitics

I'm Shenna Bellows, and I've fought for the people of Maine my entire life, from the campaign for marriage equality to the ACLU to the office of Secretary of State.

Today, I’m proud to announce that I’m running to be the next Governor of Maine! bellowsformaine.com

Can confirm “State of Maine” hasn’t apologized. (As the official keeper of all state records and guardian of the seal ;))

More results from the UNH Pine Tree State Poll

61% of Republicans believe tariffs will increase prices. At the same time, 76% believe they will have a positive impact on the economy

Dems nearly unanimously believe tariffs will increase prices & hurt the economy

#mepolitics

Democratic Governor Janet Mills will finish her 2nd and last term in 2026 leaving the seat open for many different possible candidates on both sides of the aisle (+Indys).

1958 was the last time the same party won three consecutive elections to the Maine governorship.

#mepolitics

scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcont...

A couple interesting notes in the UNH Pine Tree State Poll:

Trump net approval (-7) is basically the same as the Election Day result

More Mainers disapprove of Biden’s family pardons compared to Trumps J6 pardons

Trump has total Republican support in Maine #mepolitics

Very valuable database put together by SplitTicket using their candidate WAR model. Here are all the races since 2018 in Maine, excl. 2018 Senate. Collins is the clear standout in 2020. What caught my eye was that Bruce Poliquin actually had a positive WAR in 2018 against Golden #mepolitics

Here’s what to look for as Maine’s 2026 race for governor take shape Speculation has already seeped into the public arena, with well-known political figures such as Rep. Jared Golden and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and potential dark horse candidates such as Tra...

Here’s what to look for as Maine’s 2026 race for governor take shape

Kennebec County in Maine has voted for the eventual winner in statewide races going all the way back to 2006. That's 17 consecutive races for Governor, Senator and President #mepolitics

A lot of down ballot ticket splitting this year. Republicans did best in the ME House, winning 47.5% of the total vote and limiting the Dem margin to just 1.8pts. Not a perfect analysis due to Indys and uncontented races, but tells a story from election night #mepolitics

There were 8 towns in Maine that went Trump 2016➡️Biden 2020➡️Trump 2024. Sanford, in the center of York County, is the largest of them. It's a former mill town that now has a population of over 20,000 #mepolitics

Maine Republicans outran Trump in ~2/3rds of the state senate districts. The biggest GOP overperformances in the ME Sen were in safe R districts, outside of Bennett in SD18. Chip Curry in SD11 outran Harris by the most of any Dem to win his third term in office #mepolitics

Democrat Jared Golden won his fourth term to the US House in ME02 by defeating Republican Austin Theriault. Republicans were very excited about recruiting the former NASCAR driver from Fort Kent. But in the end, Golden narrowly won with strong support in southern CD2 #mepolitics

Jared Golden ran 9.7pts ahead of Kamala Harris in CD2 and will represent the most right-leaning district of any House Democrat. He outran Harris in most areas of ME-02 other than around Theriault's hometown of Fort Kent.

Prez: R+9.1🟥
ME02: D+0.6🟦

#mepolitics