Just under 500,000 people cast ballots in this off-year election. That represents:

1⃣47% of Active voters📈 (from Febs voter roll)
2⃣An increase of 82k voters from 2023📈

Maine continues to have some of the nation's best voter participation every election #mepolitics

Q1's No margin was 2.6pts larger than Q2s Yes margin. Populous southern, coastal Maine voted slightly more in favor of Q2, while central Maine voted stronger against Q1 #mepolitics

CD2 (using the current lines) voted No on Q3 back in 2016 by 23.6pts. A 30.7pt difference from their Yes on 2 vote this year

I’ll have to check on that. Definitely surprised by these results, would’ve thought No on 2 by double digits in CD2. Things have clearly changed!

2010
LePage: 42.5%
Cutler: 35.4%
Mitchell: 16.1%
LePage+7.1

2014
LePage: 52.5%
Michaud: 39.5%
Cutler: 8.0%
LePage+12.9

2022
LePage: 50.3%
Mills: 47.5%
Hunkler: 2.2%
LePage+2.8

Both No and 1 and Yes on 2 won in CD1 and CD2. The margins also far outpaced Harris' 2024 margin of 6.9pts.

Q1
CD1: No+41.9🟦
CD2: No+12.0🟦

Q2
CD1: Yes+41.2🟦
CD2: Yes+7.1🟦

2024 President
CD1: Harris+21.6🟦
CD2: Trump+9.0🟥

#mepolitics

Yes, I will post them soon. No on 1 and Yes on 2 won in both districts though

The SOS has released the official election results for the Nov 4 Referendums

Q1 (Voter ID and other restrictions) REJECTED by 28.4pts❌
Q2 (Red Flag Law) PASSED by 25.8pts✅

#mepolitics

Husband and Wife, David Haggan (SD10) and Kimberly Haggan (HD36), are the most conservative members of each respective state house according to the scorecard averages.

State Sen David Haggan Avg: 1.9%
State Rep Kim Haggan Avg: 0.4%

#mepolitics

2025 ME House Scorecard Average

Below are the average scores for ME House members across 5 different scorecards. (100%=Most Dem)

🟦Most Bipartisan Ds
O'Halloran-HD20: 67.8%
Bunker-HD75: 81.5%

🟥Most Bipartisan Rs
Lanigan-HD141: 11.6%
Foley-HD145: 11.3%

#mepolitics

2025 ME Sen Legislative Scorecard Average

Below are the average scores for ME State Senators across 5 different scorecards. (100%=Most Dem)

🟦Most Bipartisan Ds
Hickman-SD14: 78.8%
Baldacci-SD9: 86.2%

🟥Most Bipartisan Rs
Bennett-SD18: 50.7%
Bradstreet-SD15: 8.1%

#mepolitics

State Senator for Bangor and Hermon Joe Baldacci, brother of former Maine Governor John Baldacci, would be a solid candidate for the Democrats. He overperformed the top of the ticket by nearly 7pts in 2024 and is one of the most bipartisan lawmakers #mepolitics

x.com/polltracker2...

Graham Platner is currently leading Janet Mills in the polling average for the US Senate Dem primary by 13pts.

#mepolitics

Looking at town results on BDN for Q1 and Q2. Northern ME saw huge shifts from '24.

Caribou
'24 Prez: Trump+20
'25 Q1: No+3 (23pt shift 🔵)

Fort Fairfield
'24 Prez: Trump+19
'25 Q1: No+7 (26pt shift 🔵)

Presque Isle
'24 Prez: Trump+9
'25 Q1: No+18 (27pt shift 🔵)

#mepolitics

The referendum results underscore a big issue for Maine Rs. They need to improve their margins in large municipalities or they will continue to lose ground, especially in non-presidential years. The largest 10 munis in ME are currently voting >25 pts left of the state #mepolitics

Per the new MPA scorecard, here are the most bipartisan legislators for each party in ‘25

GOP turned Indy Gov candidate Rick Bennett is the most bipartisan State Sen

GOP Rep Lucas Lanigan, indicted on domestic violence charges in March, is the most bipartisan R Rep #mepolitics

In 2020, Susan Collins had the third biggest drop in margin of any incumbent senator between two elections since 2000.

2014: Collins +37.0
2020: Collins +8.6 (-28.4)

Only Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Ted Stevens (R-AK) had bigger drops of 33pts and 70pts, respectively

#mepolitics

The GOP has been trying to win HD44 for years and with Bill Pluecker (I) term-limited they may finally get their chance.

HD104 and HD107 should be clear targets for Dems as Arata is term-limited and Cooper is in a Harris district which had an independent running in '24 #mepolitics

Here's an early look at the best pickup opportunities for each party in the ME House

🟦Democrats: 25
🟥Republicans: 12

Even a moderate midterm advantage for Democrats should leave them in a great position to expand their majority #mepolitics

The above is just for Senate elections but I agree. HD104 should be a top target for Dems. It moved left relative to the state in 2024 and only voted for Trump by ~2pts

SD8 is trending right relative to the state, but will likely stay in Dem hands with a favorable midterm environment and Tipping running again.

SD20 trended similarly to the state from '20 to '24. Bickford benefitted from a progressive independent running #mepolitics

Here's a very early look at where Dems and GOP will be looking to pick up seats in the 2026 ME Senate races.

Best Pickup Opps
Rs - SD8 (Mike Tipping - D)
🟥2024 Prez: R+2.1
🟦2024 ME Sen: D+0.6

Ds - SD20 (Bruce Bickford - R)
🟦2024 Prez: D+0.9
🟥2024 ME Sen: R+4.4

#mepolitics

With Paul LePage jumping into the ME-02 race, let's look back at his last two elections for governor. In 2014, LePage won CD2 and narrowly lost CD1. In his 2022 return to politics, he lost massive ground in CD1 and barely won CD2 in route to a 13pt statewide defeat #mepolitics

Yeah this feels like the year that basically everybody is jumping into the race, but I’m sure we can expect a few more Republican names to join by the end of the year with more name recognition. Most of these people are relative unknowns

We're still 11 months from the primaries, but the gubernatorial race is already heating up.

Democrats Hannah Pingree and Shenna Bellows have already raised over $500k with Bobby Charles on the Republican side bringing in over $300k #mepolitics

Lake Research Partners, Pan Atlantic Research and UNH have all tested Susan Collins’ favorability recently and come away varying results

Net Fav
4/17 LRP: -33 ⬇️
5/26 PAR: +4 ⬆️
6/23 UNH: -42 ⬇️

I would presume it’s closer to +4, but the data is saying otherwise #mepolitics

Big question for 2026: Who will Cooper Flagg be endorsing in the gubernatorial election? #mepolitics

What a gift for Democrats. Golden would be a heavy favorite if he does run for reelection.

LePage only won CD2 towns by 2.8pts when he ran against Janet Mills in the 2022 gubernatorial election #mepolitics

I’m running for the US Senate because after nearly 30 years in DC, Susan Collins hasn’t changed the system – she’s part of it.

Join our campaign today: ElectJordan.com

I cannot understand the logic. Hopefully we see a public H2H poll soon