Simon Gleave

The world lost a good one if you're not Ben.

South Africa doesn't look easier and we have already been well beaten by the West Indies.

In today's Substack I look at why England aren't firing in the opposition 22 at this Six Nations...

samlarner.substack.com/p/the-final-...

Also, take England out on the 22m entries and it looks very different (5 out of 7??)

Unless things have changed since I worked on them in 2017-2019, frequency of 22m entries should be a better predictor of success than efficiency.

Over small number of matches, efficiency can be - the last Wales Grand Slam is a great example of this.

To add to this excellent overview from Brett, kicking metres is still the key stat.

The team with the higher kicking metres has won eight out of nine matches in this Six Nations. The only exception is Wales v Scotland which arguably Wales did enough to win. Only Russell magic stopped them.

Over/underperformance in this year's Six Nations

Compared to odds
Italy +25 points difference
France +15
Ireland +13
Scotland -7
Wales -8
England -38

Compared to World Rankings
France +39.5
Scotland +18.5
Italy +10.5
Ireland -1.5
Wales -18
England -49

#SixNations

Exactly and there they won't earn enough. Also, aren't the vast majority of their players based in Europe anyway? Or has that changed.

These traditionalist ideas of what should happen make little sense in the current climate.

I don't really have a problem with Fiji playing these games in the UK.

Fiji's priority in this tournament is income and presumably they will make a lot more this way than anywhere else.

After all, the rugby world isn't going to make up the difference for them if they do play at home, are they?

Sorry, 7th now - went up a place.

I have done vs top-8 which is 40%. Given time, I might do some comparisons involving more countries on these sorts of figures.

I was using world rankings and Scotland are 8th.

Yes, the England attack is very good - until it reaches the 22.

Carries per linebreak in this year's Six Nations:

7.9 France
13.0 England
15.3 Ireland
16.2 Scotland
16.9 Italy
23.6 Wales

France are playing a different sport to everyone else.

England's win% under Steve Borthwick:

100% v Argentina (5/5)
100% v Italy (3/3)
100% v Japan (3/3)
83% v Wales (5/6)
67% v Fiji (2/3)
50% v Australia (1/2)
33% v France (1/3)
25% v Scotland (1/4)
25% v New Zealand (1/4)
20% v Ireland (1/5)
0% v South Africa (0/2)

3/14 (21%) v rest of world's top-5

So, three wins out of 13 matches (23% win rate) for Borthwick's England against other teams currently ranked in World Rugby's top-5.

A chance to improve this against Ireland this weekend.

England's win% under Steve Borthwick:

100% v Argentina (5/5)
100% v Italy (3/3)
100% v Japan (3/3)
83% v Wales (5/6)
67% v Fiji (2/3)
50% v Australia (1/2)
33% v France (1/3)
25% v Scotland (1/4)
25% v Ireland (1/4)
25% v New Zealand (1/4)
0% v South Africa (0/2)

59% v Nations Championship teams

The equaliser was a fantastic example of what you are saying. Basically an easy ball for Raya to take under zero pressure until his own defender changes this. Quite staggering.

So, the easy Six Nations opponents are out of the way for Townsend, albeit with one defeat.

Now the tough games against Wales, France and Ireland!

UPDATE: Scotland's win% against selected teams under Gregor Townsend.

83% v Italy (12 games)
80% v Australia (5)
67% v England (9)
67% v Fiji (6)
57% v Argentina (7)
50% v Japan (2)
44% v Wales (9)
38% v France (13)
0% v Ireland (11)
0% v New Zealand (3)
0% v South Africa (4)

Am starting to get annoyed with the negatives being piled on England for losing to a very good Scotland performance.

15 v 15 England won, just for context. England are not in a dark place or having to reconsider everything. They lost a guy to the bin and were punished by an excellent attack.

Obviously possible that this is the case but as I have said, it isn't the manager and coaching staff that are the key things at clubs like Brentford. Those people are not uncovering and signing the players they have.

I actually forecast that Frank wouldn't be successful for exactly this reason. The coaches aren't the important factors at these teams.

The data driven IP is but that remains at the club - and is kept secret from anyone who is likely to depart.

I will give you the France game but he is a target for most opposition if playing 15 (France didn't do this). Also if England had lost - which was possible - the narrative would have been different.

As for 2024, yes the team is in development.

Perhaps the Brentford manager and coaching staff aren't the important part of their success.

Similar happens when Brighton's manager/staff go elsewhere.

"The challenge for Scotland is to replicate this level of execution and energy every week."

This comment can be copy and pasted into post England v Scotland articles in pretty much every year after a Calcutta Cup game under Townsend.

The Scots haven't managed it yet in 9 years. Maybe this time.

Marcus Smith is a gamechanger is right up there with England kick too much and Henry Arundell is an international class winger as the the biggest myths in modern rugby.

If you don't agree, please let me know which game Marcus Smith changed in the comments.

There is one stat* (other than the scoreline) which has been won by all six winners of this year's Six Nations matches so far.

Kicking metres - the team with the most kicking metres in each match has won EVERY SINGLE TIME.

* There is probably more than one

Too many people talking too much shit.

The information is all out there too. People don't even have to collect it themselves like I have over the years!!

Co-commentators who don't understand what is going on is a blight. Mind you Jiffy is a genius in comparison to the Dutch commentators.

England didn't lose against Scotland because they kicked too much. In fact, of the 12 match-team combinations to date, only Italy (v Ireland) kicked less in a match than England did on Saturday.

England lost because of turnovers (50% of their possessions ended with one) and losing the aerial battle

Interesting that England are being caned for scoring 1.4 points per 22 entry at the weekend.

Obviously this isn't good but the fact that they had 12 entries into the 22 in the first place is far more significant.

There are things wrong but 26 entries into the 22 in two matches is not one of them