Aurora Forecast Bot from NOAA (UNOFFICIAL)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 12-Aug 14 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 12-Aug 14 2025 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 00-03UT 4.00 3.00 2.67 03-06UT 2.00 4.00 2.00 06-09UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 09-12UT 3.33 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 2.67 15-18UT 3.33 2.00 2.33 18-21UT 2.00 2.00 2.33 21-00UT 3.33 2.00 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2025 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 12-14 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 11 2025 1536 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 12-Aug 14 2025 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 12-14 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-12T01:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 11 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 00-03UT 4.33 4.00 3.00 03-06UT 2.33 2.00 4.00 06-09UT 3.33 2.00 2.67 09-12UT 3.00 3.33 2.67 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 11-13 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 10 2025 1507 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 11-13 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-11T19:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 11 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 00-03UT 4.33 4.00 3.00 03-06UT 2.33 2.00 4.00 06-09UT 3.33 2.00 2.67 09-12UT 3.00 3.33 2.67 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 11-13 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 10 2025 1507 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 11-13 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-11T13:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 00-03UT 3.33 4.00 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 2.00 4.00 06-09UT 3.67 2.00 2.67 09-12UT 3.67 3.33 2.67 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 11-13 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 10 2025 1507 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 11-13 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-11T07:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 00-03UT 3.33 4.00 3.00 03-06UT 3.33 2.00 4.00 06-09UT 3.67 2.00 2.67 09-12UT 3.67 3.33 2.67 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 11-13 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 10 2025 1507 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 11-Aug 13 2025 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 11-13 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-11T01:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 10 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 00-03UT 3.67 3.33 3.33 03-06UT 2.00 3.33 2.00 06-09UT 4.33 3.67 2.00 09-12UT 4.33 3.67 3.33 12-15UT 2.67 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 3.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.00 3.33 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 10 Aug due to CH HSS influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 10 2025 0312 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 10-12 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-10T19:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 10 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 00-03UT 3.67 3.33 3.33 03-06UT 2.00 3.33 2.00 06-09UT 4.33 3.67 2.00 09-12UT 4.33 3.67 3.33 12-15UT 2.67 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 3.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.00 3.33 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 10 Aug due to CH HSS influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 10 2025 0312 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 10-12 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-10T13:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 00-03UT 3.00 3.33 3.33 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.00 06-09UT 4.00 3.67 2.00 09-12UT 3.00 3.67 3.33 12-15UT 2.67 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 3.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.00 3.33 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 10 Aug due to CH HSS influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 09 2025 1640 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 10-12 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-10T07:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 00-03UT 3.00 3.33 3.33 03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.00 06-09UT 4.00 3.67 2.00 09-12UT 3.00 3.67 3.33 12-15UT 2.67 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 3.00 3.00 21-00UT 2.67 3.00 3.33 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 10 Aug due to CH HSS influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 09 2025 1640 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 10-Aug 12 2025 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 10-12 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-10T01:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 00-03UT 5.33 (G1) 3.67 3.33 03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 3.33 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 3.67 09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 3.67 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 3.00 15-18UT 3.33 3.33 3.00 18-21UT 4.00 3.67 3.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.00 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are expected on 09 Aug due to CH HSS influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels over 09-11 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 1910 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 09-11 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-09T19:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 00-03UT 5.33 (G1) 3.67 3.33 03-06UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 3.33 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 3.67 09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 3.67 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 3.00 15-18UT 3.33 3.33 3.00 18-21UT 4.00 3.67 3.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.00 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are expected on 09 Aug due to CH HSS influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels over 09-11 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 1910 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 09-11 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-09T13:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 00-03UT 4.00 3.67 3.33 03-06UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 3.67 09-12UT 3.67 3.00 3.67 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 3.00 15-18UT 3.33 3.33 3.00 18-21UT 4.00 3.67 3.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.00 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are expected on 09 Aug due to CH HSS influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels over 09-11 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 0353 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 09-11 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-09T07:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 00-03UT 4.00 3.67 3.33 03-06UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 3.33 3.67 09-12UT 3.67 3.00 3.67 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 3.00 15-18UT 3.33 3.33 3.00 18-21UT 4.00 3.67 3.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.00 Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) storming are expected on 09 Aug due to CH HSS influence. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels over 09-11 Aug. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 0353 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 09-Aug 11 2025 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 09-11 Aug.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-09T01:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 1834 Issue Time: 2025 Aug 08 2006 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2025 Aug 08 2005 UTC Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.67 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 1.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 4.00 3.67 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will presist through 10 Aug primarily due to risk generated from AR 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 0353 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-08T20:10:06Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Aug 08 2005 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.67 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 1.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 4.00 3.67 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will presist through 10 Aug primarily due to risk generated from AR 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 0353 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-08T19:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 1833 Issue Time: 2025 Aug 08 1500 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2025 Aug 08 1459 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.67 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 1.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 4.00 3.67 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will presist through 10 Aug primarily due to risk generated from AR 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 0353 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-08T15:10:04Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Aug 08 1459 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05 Serial Number: 2085 Issue Time: 2025 Aug 08 1429 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected Valid From: 2025 Aug 08 1430 UTC Valid To: 2025 Aug 09 0900 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.67 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 1.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 4.00 3.67 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will presist through 10 Aug primarily due to risk generated from AR 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 0353 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-08T14:40:14Z

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2025 Aug 08 1430 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Aug 09 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04 Serial Number: 2584 Issue Time: 2025 Aug 08 1422 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 Threshold Reached: 2025 Aug 08 1420 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.67 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 1.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 4.00 3.67 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will presist through 10 Aug primarily due to risk generated from AR 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 0353 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-08T14:30:04Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2025 Aug 08 1420 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
Additional Details Here.

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5052 Issue Time: 2025 Aug 08 1415 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2025 Aug 08 1415 UTC Valid To: 2025 Aug 09 1200 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.67 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 1.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 4.00 3.67 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will presist through 10 Aug primarily due to risk generated from AR 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 0353 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-08T14:20:04Z

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2025 Aug 08 1415 UTC
Valid To: 2025 Aug 09 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 00-03UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 1.67 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 1.67 3.67 3.00 12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.67 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 4.00 3.67 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event will presist through 10 Aug primarily due to risk generated from AR 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 08 2025 0353 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 R1-R2 60% 60% 60% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-08T13:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 00-03UT 1.67 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 2.67 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 6.00 (G2) 4.00 3.33 12-15UT 3.67 3.00 3.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 3.33 3.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.00 4.00 3.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 S1 or greater 15% 5% 5% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event exists for 08 Aug given recent activity from Region 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 07 2025 1131 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-08T07:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 00-03UT 1.67 5.00 (G1) 3.67 03-06UT 2.67 4.33 3.33 06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 3.33 09-12UT 6.00 (G2) 4.00 3.33 12-15UT 3.67 3.00 3.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 3.33 3.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.00 4.00 3.67 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 S1 or greater 15% 5% 5% Rationale: A slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event exists for 08 Aug given recent activity from Region 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 07 2025 1131 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 08-Aug 10 2025 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-08T01:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 00-03UT 1.33 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 03-06UT 1.33 6.00 (G2) 4.33 06-09UT 1.33 4.33 3.67 09-12UT 2.33 3.67 4.00 12-15UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.67 3.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.33 4.00 4.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 S1 or greater 25% 5% 5% Rationale: A chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event exists for 07 Aug given recent activity from Region 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 07 2025 0232 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-07T19:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 07 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 00-03UT 1.33 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 03-06UT 1.33 6.00 (G2) 4.33 06-09UT 1.33 4.33 3.67 09-12UT 2.33 3.67 4.00 12-15UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 3.00 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.67 3.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.33 4.00 4.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 S1 or greater 25% 5% 5% Rationale: A chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event exists for 07 Aug given recent activity from Region 4168. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 07 2025 0232 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days primarily due to the flare potential and history of AR 4168.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-07T13:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 00-03UT 1.33 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 03-06UT 2.00 6.00 (G2) 4.33 06-09UT 1.33 4.33 3.67 09-12UT 2.33 3.67 4.00 12-15UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 2.33 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.67 3.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.33 4.00 4.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 06 2025 1702 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-07T07:04:02Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 07 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 00-03UT 1.33 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1) 03-06UT 2.00 6.00 (G2) 4.33 06-09UT 1.33 4.33 3.67 09-12UT 2.33 3.67 4.00 12-15UT 2.33 3.00 3.00 15-18UT 2.33 3.33 3.33 18-21UT 2.67 3.67 3.67 21-00UT 4.33 4.00 4.00 Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09 Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 06 2025 1702 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-07T01:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 00-03UT 2.00 1.33 1.67 03-06UT 1.67 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.67 1.67 1.67 12-15UT 2.00 1.33 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 4.00 18-21UT 2.00 1.67 4.33 21-00UT 3.00 1.67 4.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 05 2025 1553 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 R1-R2 50% 50% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a high chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-06T19:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 06 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 00-03UT 2.00 1.33 1.67 03-06UT 1.67 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 1.33 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.67 1.67 1.67 12-15UT 2.00 1.33 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 4.00 18-21UT 2.00 1.67 4.33 21-00UT 3.00 1.67 4.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 05 2025 1553 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 R1-R2 50% 50% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a high chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-06T13:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 00-03UT 2.33 1.33 1.67 03-06UT 2.67 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 12-15UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.00 1.67 1.67 21-00UT 2.00 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 05 2025 1553 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 R1-R2 50% 50% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-06T07:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Aug 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 is 2.67 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 00-03UT 2.33 1.33 1.67 03-06UT 2.67 1.33 1.33 06-09UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 09-12UT 2.00 1.67 1.33 12-15UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 15-18UT 2.00 1.33 1.33 18-21UT 2.00 1.67 1.67 21-00UT 2.00 1.67 1.67 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 S1 or greater 5% 5% 5% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Aug 05 2025 1553 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 06-Aug 08 2025 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 R1-R2 50% 50% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts all three days.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-08-06T01:04:01Z
Additional Details Here.