@ulyssecolonna.bsky.social
Creative speller, fanatical aggadist, I dabble in economics. Member @tochnyi.bsky.social
Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
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www.bofit.fi/en/
The United States sanctioned Keremet bank and the TGR group last year. It’s a significant network. Keremet promised to challenge the sanctions decision, but the involvement of Russia and Ilan Shor pretty much guaranteed the decision would not be reversed.
21.11.2025 11:55 — 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0I’d say that’s fairly unlikely. VVP is now 73, it would take 5 to 10 years to rebuild the Russian army and economy to the point of being able to fight a war with the West. He’d be somewhere between 78 and 83. That’s way old to take a gamble. And his successor may not be keen on this sort of things.
21.11.2025 09:10 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0How can this be the starting position? It’s like Ukraine will have to negotiate with the US, not Russia.
21.11.2025 08:31 — 👍 8 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 01\ Donation match! Post proof of donation by 30th Nov, I'll match up to $2,500.
Check the quoted thread to see how one excavator saved dozens of lives and $millions of equipment.
Every $1 helps, please share Constantine's thread and tell friends about my match. We can help democracy's defenders.
“Ce qui est ruiné c’est la possibilité que la Chine avait à ce moment là [1860] de devenir maîtresse du monde”
Voilà voilà voilà
Celui sur le sac du palais d’été est encore pire, il explique que sans l’expédition, il n’y aurait pas eu de révolution industrielle en Europe mais en Asie.
19.11.2025 13:36 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 01\ Russia's budget plan implies the following for 2025Q4 vs 2024Q4. Inflation adjusted using Rosstat's 7.7%
👉37% cuts in national defence
👉74% cuts in housing and public utilities
👉59% cuts in social security
👉19% cuts in healthcare
👉16% cuts in education
👉22% cuts in law enforcement
If you want more info on this and the gasoline shortages tune in tonight to @tochnyi.info 's live stream at 21:00 Kyiv time.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNnm...
Ukraine needs to buy them though for I fear the Greeks bearing gifts
16.11.2025 14:42 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0What’s going on the head of Russian admirals atm? On the one hand, “goody, this one wasn’t for us”, on the other, they’ve just flattened infrastructure in the #1 base of the #1 fleet of our glorious navy, we’re next fo sho”
16.11.2025 09:17 — 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0Back in the 80’s Emmanuel Todd detected a rise in infant mortality in the USSR and postulated it was a sign the state was collapsing.
Now he has turned into a total vatnik who thinks Ukraine has already been defeated.
I wonder what he makes of that.
Robin Brooks used Haven Analytics data to show the discounts on Russian Urals vs Brent have increased drastically since the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft.
The discount is over $15 a barrel now.
Russian oil is selling below $50 🔥
Amazing podcast from @alexjubelin.bsky.social about the situation in Mali. @simnasr.bsky.social is cool to read but he's truly fantastic to listen to!
Brilliant take, which makes space for personal issues at the top, gloabal influences and basic facts on the ground lerubicon.org/collimateur-...
It would explain the interest for radio waves
14.11.2025 16:24 — 👍 6 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0I always assumed the furry wrinkly pictures were selfportraits.
14.11.2025 15:18 — 👍 4 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0#blyatonomics
14.11.2025 15:14 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Doesn’t the Black Sea represent like 40% of Russian oil exports or something of the sort? Closing it would game over, right?
14.11.2025 15:13 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Exciting news, finally data hinting that the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions are directly hurting Russia.
A ~$6.50/bbl extra discount increase is big enough to override market price increases of ~$5/bbl.
I still think it'll take a while to be sure, but this is promising 🤞volume/cost info also needed.
Russian Business news 12/November/2025:
The UK plans on banning the offering of servicing and insurance to ships carrying LNG from Russia. Currently the Yamal LNG project fleet is being insured by the UK based P&I Club and finding a new insurer will be difficult.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8195413
This is hilarious.
There is zero chance for these assets to be floated on the Chinese market and the yuan denomination will only very marginally attract an excess of Chinese investors.
It’s only a way to provide a safety against inflation. Quite telling.
Russia's oil revenues continue to drop amid US sanctions, strong rouble and low global crude prices
• Kremlin's oil revenues stood at US$1.1bn/week in early Nov., down from ~US$1.6bn/week in 2024
• China's Sinopec and PetroChina Co. recently cancelled some Russian cargoes following new US sanctions
🚨 Foreign currency supply in Russia has fallen to a record low since the start of the full-scale invasion (rolling 6 month average). Foreign currency is in short supply, but demand is increasing.
The ruble should be devaluing, but the Bank of Russia won’t let it.
Yup. The same way Canada, Ghana, Australia, the US and Singapore all should recognise King Charles III as their legitimate ruler.
10.11.2025 15:07 — 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Despite estimates by analytical companies that Russian gasoline sales have returned to profitability the Fuel Union says they are unprofitable and far from the 7-8 rubles per liter needed to operate a gas station.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192616
The Russian project to build the domestically designed processor Baikal-M has been stopped due to a shortage of crystals needed for the production. They call the experiment a success but they didn't even reach a production of more than a few dozens.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8192532
Brilliant!!!
Since you’re on a roll, any chance you could put on your sniper gears and shoot VVP in the head or something?
Ready for winter
09.11.2025 10:58 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0To paraphrase @realjakebroe.bsky.social : your propaganda is weak, Russia, it’s weak.
09.11.2025 10:36 — 👍 10 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0The same had happened with the big Rothschild loan in the 1880s which was initially meant to help (mostly Ukrainian) agriculture but was wasted in some Balkan adventure.
It’s so depressing…
