Greg Cordell

Liverpool FC: 2023/24 Financial Results P&L, Investment, Cash Flow, Debt, and Outlook

My full review of Liverpool's 2023/24 financial results is live on Substack (link below; no paywall).

open.substack.com/pub/gregcord...

Updated cash flow stmt estimates are provided as well, but note that figures are highly speculative:
- Cash generated from operations est of ~ £74m
- Cash outflow for investment est of ~ £228m (net player: £180m; capex: £48m)
- Cash inflow from financing est of ~ £154m (assumed £150m from Dynasty).

To supplement P&L estimates, a note that I've estimated net fixed asset spend (net player spend + net infrastructure spend) to be ~ £211m, which would reflect a new club high. In particular, I've estimated player net spend in accts to be ~ £163m (much higher than the ~ £95m on Transfermarkt).

Revised LFC P&L estimates for 2023/24 are attached after disclosure of revenue and wage data in the DFML report (note: rev segments adjusted for projected LFC categorization):
- Rev of £614m (per DFML; +£20m);
- Est adj EBITDA of ~ £85m (~ flat YOY)
- Est pre-tax loss of ~ £46m (~ £37m worse YOY).

Each of CFC and THFC saw total wages decrease by double digits (note: not in UCL), while MUFC and AFC (return to UCL) each saw doubt digit increases. Interestingly, LFC's wages increased by ~ 4% YOY (general expectation was a step down).

As a cohort, wages in aggregate increased by ~ 2%.

Liverpool and Arsenal each exhibited sizeable matchday revenue growth, w/ Liverpool exceeding £100m for the first time.

On an aggregate basis, matchday revenue increased by ~ 10% YOY across the cohort.

Three of six from the cohort experienced double digit YOY declines in broadcast revenue (due to missing out on UCL in 2023/24 after participating in 2022/23). In aggregate, broadcast revenue decreased ~ 4% YOY for Big 6 clubs. Arsenal again the club exhibiting standout growth within the group.

Commercial growth was generally flat for the Manchester clubs, but each other Big 6 club exhibited 7%+ YOY growth (AFC the standout at ~ 30%).

Note that LFC categorize comm differently vs Deloitte and might report comm rev ~ £10m to £15m in accts (w/ MD and broad lower) if similar to prior years.

This thread provides a few figures w/ 'Big 6' club comparisons now that AFC, CFC, LFC, and THFC data is available. For total revenue, Arsenal jumped from 6th to 3rd among the cohort as revenue increased YOY by ~ 33%. Excluding AFC, the other five in aggregate saw rev decrease by ~ 1% YOY.

Following the release of the DFML report, attached is a summary snapshot for PL clubs:
- 6 clubs in top 10, 9 in top 20, and 14 in top 30 (no rev segmentation or wage for #21-30)
- AFC the big mover (rev up £152m)
- NUFC rev broke through £300m
- Extremes on wage/rev: AVFC at 96% & THFC at 42%

Yes. I'll provide separate threads today w/ DFML summary data for PL clubs and 2023/24 LFC high level estimates.

West Ham United: 2023/24 Financial Results Overview of P&L, Investment, Cash Flow, and Debt

My full review of West Ham's 2023/24 financial results is available on Substack (link below; free access).

open.substack.com/pub/gregcord...

Manchester City FC: 2023/24 Financial Results Overview of P&L, Investment, Cash Flow, and Debt

My full review of Manchester City's 2023/24 financial results is available on Substack (link below; free access).

open.substack.com/pub/gregcord...

My est is ~ €145m if LFC win the final two league matches and advance to the final.

My interpretation of the 2024-2027 model is advancement of other PL clubs won't shift distributions in the same way as for 2021-2024. There is uncertainty on Euro Part Value Pillar, but I went slightly conservative.

FWIW, attached is a figure with estimated 2024/25 UCL revenue to date based on UEFA's distribution circular. I have it at ~ €95m (~ £78m) w/ up to ~ €57m more in play based on performance.

There is a distribution tranche for league phase position, w/ each position worth €275k. Therefore, finishing first ('36 shares') results in €9.9m in prize money that is additive to league phase per match and KO advancement bonuses.

After today’s PL fixture update (through MD26), 68% of live TV fixtures for 2024/25 have been allocated. 'Big 6' (18-19 each), Villa (17), and NUFC (16) selected most often.

From a financial perspective, each appearance was worth £839k and each club received flat £978k in 2022/23 (latest data).

Plus there is a benefit to finishing as a stronger seed as it relates to the KO draw process / bracket. A lot of folks seem to be under the impression that there is no differentiation between first and eighth.