Dr James Martin

Recent Australian tobacco policy has unfortunately been a battle between pro- & anti- harm reduction advocates with pro-HR winning all arguments but anti-HR policy being increased with tragic results. Betting against HR generally loses @jamomartin.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social

An eye-watering 34% increase in illicit drug consumption between 2023-24. Even more concerning, drug expenditure also actually decreased over that period. In other words, illicit drugs are getting cheaper.

Time for a radical rethink about our heavy reliance on supply reduction.

Australia’s war on nicotine is failing. A smarter strategy is needed

A new study shows smoking and vaping rates increasing since the government's vape crackdown in 2024. A different strategy is needed.

The Drug Policy Alliance explains the Paradox of Prohibition. That is, the worst outcomes are achieved with either a totally unregulated free market or with prohibition. The least worst outcomes are achieved with a ‘Goldilocks’ (not too hot, not too cold) system of regulation. @sanho.bsky.social

Australia has become the global village idiot on quitting smoking Every day, 66 Australians die from the effects of smoking – not from an addiction to nicotine, but from the toxic delivery mechanism of cigarettes.

Fiona Patten skewers abject failure of Australia’s tobacco & vape policies which slowed smoking decline, boosted violent black market, made multi billion dollar hole in government annual revenue & survives thanks to tsunami of disinformation @paulbongiorno.bsky.social
www.smh.com.au/national/aus...

Vapes, violence and the law of diminishing returns: rethinking Australia’s nicotine strategy | The Strategist There’s a new war on Australian streets, and it’s not just about tobacco or vapes; it’s about control, cash and crime. While Australia once led the world in cutting smoking rates, the rise of illicit ...

When Australia’s tobacco & vape policies failed, authorities doubled down on policies that didn’t work & can’t work. Restricting availability of safer vapes but keeping deadly cigarettes readily available always was insane @jamomartin.bsky.social
www.aspistrategist.org.au/vapes-violen...

Exclusive: Smoking data taken down after link to vape ban A report showing increased smoking and vaping among young Australians was pulled after it embarrassed the government and led to complaints from other researchers.

The curious case of the disappearing smoking data. The Roy Morgan release was unequivocal: smoking rates among young adults are up after vaping ban which had "demonstrably failed". And then it disappeared and was replaced with something more amenable. www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/health/...

Supply reduction (i.e., border control, law enforcement) is notoriously ineffective, expensive, and comes with a whole range of negative consequences that will likely make the problem worse, not better.

Here is the full paper for those interested in a deeper dive: link.springer.com/content/pdf/...

Tobacco and toe-cutting: The black market driving gang violence Black market tobacco “rips” are fuelling gang violence in Sydney. Court files show the way brutal tactics are used to secure market dominance.

‘A terrified tobacco runner was forced to tie up his friends and then bind his own feet, before Alameddine gangsters allegedly began cutting off his big toe in a horrific moment that illustrates how violence is part of doing business in Sydney’s gang wars’
www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

Supply reduction (i.e., border control, law enforcement) is notoriously ineffective, expensive, and comes with a whole range of negative consequences that will likely make the problem worse, not better.

Here is the full paper for those interested in a deeper dive: link.springer.com/content/pdf/...

Australia risks losing ‘war on nicotine’ in same way as war on drugs as illegal tobacco sales explode Authorities should take a ‘harm reduction’ approach, removing excise for a period and making vapes more available, experts argue * Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast Australia is now waging a “de facto war on nicotine” that is doomed to fail in the same way as previous prohibition-style policies, experts say, amid a growing debate about how to respond to an explosion in the illicit tobacco trade. As health experts warn against changes that would undermine decades of fighting to bring down smoking rates, James Martin, a criminology lecturer at Deakin University, and Edward Jegasothy, an epidemiologist at the University of Sydney’s School of Public Health, have called for a major overhaul in how we tax tobacco and regulate vaping products. Continue reading...

Australia risks losing ‘war on nicotine’ in same way as war on drugs as illegal tobacco sales explode

When meta-analysis misleads: the need for methodological integrity in e-cigarette research - Internal and Emergency Medicine Internal and Emergency Medicine -

Renowned THR expert Prof. Riccardo Polosa et al raise serious concerns re flawed meta-analytic practices leading to exaggerated claims re health risks of vaping
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Great to see a new pill testing site in Fitzroy!

Also worth noting that harm reduction remains grossly underfunded across Australia, receiving just 1.6% of total drug funding, despite its much great efficacy in reducing drug related harm than supply or demand reduction.

Great that we're starting to acknowledge the role of excessive tax in creating the tobacco black market, but stronger enforcement is not going to fix the problem. We've already poured more than $300 million into stronger compliance/enforcement to little effect. Lowering tax will be necessary.

In denial. Australia unable to reduce illicit supply cigarettes & associated violence unless some reduction in excessive excise. Can’t arrest its way out
@jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Check out the new paper from @edjegasothy.bsky.social
and me - 'Fanning the flame: analysing the emergence, implications, and challenges of Australia’s de facto war on nicotine', now published in Harm Reduction Journal. Thread below with the key findings and link to open access paper. 🧵

And another two firebombings overnight in QLD, resulting in "potentially life-threatening" burns to 2 men.

Police do not have the time or resources to control this. The economic forces of supply and demand are too great. Need to improve legal supply.

www.news.com.au/national/que...

Clive Bates outlines dangers of e-cigarette [#vape] prohibition & illicit trade. Often tobacco controls supports vy strict restrictions, not quite complete ban but unintended effects like prohibition @jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social
#auspol
clivebates.com/the-danger-o...

Gangland shootings in NSW. Arson attacks and extortion in Victoria. Just another week in Australia's ever worsening #tobaccowars.

Anyone starting to think that the creeping prohibition of our 3rd most popular recreational drug (after caffeine & alcohol) is not the best idea?

'A cell or in the morgue': Grim warning as mega taskforce targets underworld Police have vowed to "find every single one of these crooks" with a new mega taskforce formed in response to a spate of underworld attacks to rock Sydney in the past fortnight.

Police have vowed to "find every single one of these crooks" with a new mega taskforce formed in response to a spate of underworld attacks to rock Sydney in the past fortnight.

Big fines v bigger business: tobacco’s lucrative side laid bare It was business as usual in the industry last week: financial penalties were issued, authorities announced new measures and business boomed.

It was the tax man that took down Al Capone, but it was ending Prohibition that ultimately killed the black market.

Stiffening penalties for selling illicit nicotine might sound like a good idea but it's unlikely to work given the scale of the problem.

www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

E-cigarettes and harm reduction: An evidence review

Here’s a recent review by the UK Royal College of Physicians. This is the same organisation that first alerted the world to the link between smoking and lung cancer.

Their view: it is “likely that vaping poses only a small fraction of risk compared to smoking”.

www.rcp.ac.uk/policy-and-c...

The tobacco tax is a disaster playing out on our streets and in our budget From bombed-out tobacconists in Melbourne to a $43 billion hole in the budget, the use of excise on tobacco is failing.

"The tobacco tax is a disaster playing out on our streets and in our budget"

www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

Exactly. The UK and NZ govts give free vapes to people who smoke to help them to quit. Here we make them harder to get than deadly cigarettes and spend 100s of millions to try and suppress the market. It's the exact opposite of an evidence-informed harm reduction approach, and it's clearly failing.

60 tobacconists for every McDonald’s: How Sydney’s streets became consumed by smoke shops Take a walk down a main street in Sydney and you’ll notice that tobacco is still big business, even with less than 10 per cent of the population now smoking.

Frustrating to read the 'a child could enforce this' arguments here. Vapes alone constitute the 2nd largest illicit drug market in the country. There is no feasible level of enforcement that can contain a black market of this size and profitability.

www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

A select recommendation if your interested:

🔹 Lancet letter on tobacco tax impact - doi.org/10.1016/S246...
🔹 Vape modelling study - doi.org/10.1093/ntr/...
🔹 NHMRC critique - doi.org/10.1111/add....
🔹 Our recent Harm Reduction Journal paper - link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Rather than using Chat to critique a second-hand transcript, I’d be genuinely interested in your own take on some of the research critical of Australian tobacco and nicotine control policy. This is now a genuinely interdisciplinary problem that would benefit from good faith debate and examination.

Appreciate the critique, Andrew. Though I do find it odd to imply that those raising concerns or highlighting inconvenient data are waging an ‘ideological war’ against public health. Many of these ideas come from experts in public health - not that this should be important.

Even higher - 96.1% - if you count the people who 'didn't know' if they had a prescription. If that's not a repudiation of the medical model for vapes, I don't know what is!

Coalition 100% right to accept Australia’s black market model vaping policy has been abject failure either requiring doctors prescription or buy from chemist. NZ realistic policy much better @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social @jamomartin.bsky.social @edjegasothy.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social