Dr James Martin

Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia?

Want to share your views on the tobacco black market?

Join us for a confidential interview.

See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.

Prohibitive policies drove organised crime in Australia 100 years ago. It’s happening again Where there’s demand, there will be supply, legal or not. From the ‘sly grog’ of the 1920s to the illicit vapes of today, getting regulation right is difficult.

Check out the latest from @edjegasothy.bsky.social and me about Australia's historical experience with prohibition, and what lessons we can learn about it's impact on illicit markets and organised crime.

theconversation.com/prohibitive-...

‘ … Reducing excise rates would shift consumption away from illicit products.'

Review of Australia’s illicit tobacco market

apo.org.au/node/333573

Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia?

Want to share your views on the tobacco black market?

Join us for a confidential interview.

See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.

Do you smoke illicit tobacco in Australia?

Want to share your views on the tobacco black market?

Join us for a confidential interview.

See info sheet below and email me at james.m@deakin.edu.au for further info.

Treasury considering changes to Australia’s contentious tobacco excise, as calls grow for a freeze The tax has climbed by 60% since 2020 and accounts for three-quarters of the legal cost of a packet of cigarettes

This seems like progress.

www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Great substack Alan 👍

From Curiosity to Crisis: How Youth Nicotine Data Gets Distorted https://rchpoll.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/NCHP40-Poll-report-A4_FA.pdf

@alexwodak.bsky.social @squigglyrick.bsky.social @melissasweetdr.bsky.social

open.substack.com/pub/09algor/...

People in Germany & Sweden consume similar quantities nicotine. But Germany mainly by smoking cigarettes while Sweden mainly by safer smoke-free nicotine policies. Germany has higher rates of cancer. Which country’s policy do you prefer? @algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social

New Zealand Embraces Vapes to Cut Smoking—and Cuts Youth Vaping - Filter In countries where nicotine vapes are generally available to adults, with corresponding reductions in smoking, youth vaping has again and ...

After 4 major political parties New Zealand supported regulate low-risk vaping ensure more available than deadly cigarettes, decline smoking accelerated, no vape black market @algore09algor.bsky.social @igas2.bsky.social @ianamossyd.bsky.social @jmenezes.bsky.social
filtermag.org/new-zealand-...

Emerging Risks of Nitazene‐Adulterated Vapes in Australia: Balancing Regulation, Access and Harm Reduction Click on the article title to read more.

New paper out co-authored with Jennifer Schumann, on the recent emergence of nitazenes in Australia's illicit THC vape supply.

We discuss the regulatory context, implications, and the dangers of conflating adulteration of THC and nicotine vape supply.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

The making of a tobacco warlord The arrest of Kazem Hamad in Iraq is welcomed by Australian authorities, although the illicit tobacco trade that built his brutal empire shows no sign of waning.

“Hamad is a symptom of our policy decisions. The conditions that created the illicit market are still in place.”
satpa.pe/tlhW0N6

Long before he became “one of the world’s most dangerous wanted men”, as a suspected broker of Iranian terrorism and alleged orchestrator of Australia’s murderous tobacco wars, Kazem Hamad was just a troubled young man on a psych’s couch…
satpa.pe/7tLOsWS

Not sure it's all that great a mystery why so many teens greatly overestimate how many of their peers actually vape.

Alleged tobacco kingpin Kazem ‘Kaz’ Hamad has been arrested in Iraq – what happens next? The alleged kingpin of Australia’s illicit tobacco trade has been arrested - does this mean the end of the so-called ‘tobacco wars’?

Great comments from @jamomartin.bsky.social reminder decapitating organised crime poor track record for improving outcomes & often sparks ⬆️violence as rivals fight for positions. Part of Australia’s failed policy on cigarettes & neo prohibition of vapes
theconversation.com/alleged-toba...

Illicit vaping and cigarettes create a game of 'whack-a-mole' Despite a record $15.7 million nicotine seizure, experts say Australia's multi-billion-dollar illicit tobacco and vape market continues to thrive, exposing the limits of raids and crackdowns.

Despite a record $15.7 million nicotine seizure, experts say Australia's multi-billion-dollar illicit tobacco and vape market continues to thrive, exposing the limits of raids and crackdowns.

Recent Australian tobacco policy has unfortunately been a battle between pro- & anti- harm reduction advocates with pro-HR winning all arguments but anti-HR policy being increased with tragic results. Betting against HR generally loses @jamomartin.bsky.social @aliveadvocacy.bsky.social

An eye-watering 34% increase in illicit drug consumption between 2023-24. Even more concerning, drug expenditure also actually decreased over that period. In other words, illicit drugs are getting cheaper.

Time for a radical rethink about our heavy reliance on supply reduction.

Australia’s war on nicotine is failing. A smarter strategy is needed

A new study shows smoking and vaping rates increasing since the government's vape crackdown in 2024. A different strategy is needed.

The Drug Policy Alliance explains the Paradox of Prohibition. That is, the worst outcomes are achieved with either a totally unregulated free market or with prohibition. The least worst outcomes are achieved with a ‘Goldilocks’ (not too hot, not too cold) system of regulation. @sanho.bsky.social

Australia has become the global village idiot on quitting smoking Every day, 66 Australians die from the effects of smoking – not from an addiction to nicotine, but from the toxic delivery mechanism of cigarettes.

Fiona Patten skewers abject failure of Australia’s tobacco & vape policies which slowed smoking decline, boosted violent black market, made multi billion dollar hole in government annual revenue & survives thanks to tsunami of disinformation @paulbongiorno.bsky.social
www.smh.com.au/national/aus...

Vapes, violence and the law of diminishing returns: rethinking Australia’s nicotine strategy | The Strategist There’s a new war on Australian streets, and it’s not just about tobacco or vapes; it’s about control, cash and crime. While Australia once led the world in cutting smoking rates, the rise of illicit ...

When Australia’s tobacco & vape policies failed, authorities doubled down on policies that didn’t work & can’t work. Restricting availability of safer vapes but keeping deadly cigarettes readily available always was insane @jamomartin.bsky.social
www.aspistrategist.org.au/vapes-violen...

Exclusive: Smoking data taken down after link to vape ban A report showing increased smoking and vaping among young Australians was pulled after it embarrassed the government and led to complaints from other researchers.

The curious case of the disappearing smoking data. The Roy Morgan release was unequivocal: smoking rates among young adults are up after vaping ban which had "demonstrably failed". And then it disappeared and was replaced with something more amenable. www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/health/...

Supply reduction (i.e., border control, law enforcement) is notoriously ineffective, expensive, and comes with a whole range of negative consequences that will likely make the problem worse, not better.

Here is the full paper for those interested in a deeper dive: link.springer.com/content/pdf/...

Tobacco and toe-cutting: The black market driving gang violence Black market tobacco “rips” are fuelling gang violence in Sydney. Court files show the way brutal tactics are used to secure market dominance.

‘A terrified tobacco runner was forced to tie up his friends and then bind his own feet, before Alameddine gangsters allegedly began cutting off his big toe in a horrific moment that illustrates how violence is part of doing business in Sydney’s gang wars’
www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...

Supply reduction (i.e., border control, law enforcement) is notoriously ineffective, expensive, and comes with a whole range of negative consequences that will likely make the problem worse, not better.

Here is the full paper for those interested in a deeper dive: link.springer.com/content/pdf/...

Australia risks losing ‘war on nicotine’ in same way as war on drugs as illegal tobacco sales explode Authorities should take a ‘harm reduction’ approach, removing excise for a period and making vapes more available, experts argue * Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast Australia is now waging a “de facto war on nicotine” that is doomed to fail in the same way as previous prohibition-style policies, experts say, amid a growing debate about how to respond to an explosion in the illicit tobacco trade. As health experts warn against changes that would undermine decades of fighting to bring down smoking rates, James Martin, a criminology lecturer at Deakin University, and Edward Jegasothy, an epidemiologist at the University of Sydney’s School of Public Health, have called for a major overhaul in how we tax tobacco and regulate vaping products. Continue reading...

Australia risks losing ‘war on nicotine’ in same way as war on drugs as illegal tobacco sales explode

When meta-analysis misleads: the need for methodological integrity in e-cigarette research - Internal and Emergency Medicine Internal and Emergency Medicine -

Renowned THR expert Prof. Riccardo Polosa et al raise serious concerns re flawed meta-analytic practices leading to exaggerated claims re health risks of vaping
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Great to see a new pill testing site in Fitzroy!

Also worth noting that harm reduction remains grossly underfunded across Australia, receiving just 1.6% of total drug funding, despite its much great efficacy in reducing drug related harm than supply or demand reduction.

Great that we're starting to acknowledge the role of excessive tax in creating the tobacco black market, but stronger enforcement is not going to fix the problem. We've already poured more than $300 million into stronger compliance/enforcement to little effect. Lowering tax will be necessary.