Warwick mckibbin AO

Trump's tariffs damage the US economy more if they drive investors away from American assets When President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of tariff increases on April 2, he predicted that date would be remembered as "the day that we began to make America wealthy again." Global investo...

New research shows that the effects of the "Liberation Day" tariffs if they go into effect—higher inflation, lower GDP—would significantly worsen with capital flight.

26.06.2025 13:43 — 👍 15    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 0

The US revenue implications of President Trump's 2025 tariffs President Donald J. Trump’s new tariffs could generate trillions of dollars in new federal government revenue over a decade, but the net gain would be reduced by the measures’ damaging effects on the ...

The US revenue implications of President Trump's 2025 tariffs by @warwickmck.bsky.social
Independent analysis by @piie.com
www.piie.com/publications...

22.04.2025 20:24 — 👍 15    🔁 4    💬 1    📌 1

Trump's tariffs are designed for maximum damage—to America President Donald Trump touted his bewildering array of "Liberation Day" import tariffs as carefully calibrated to offset trade partners' tariff, nontariff, and currency barriers to US exports. However...

PIIE's Maury Obstfeld writes: Trump's tariffs are designed for maximum damage—to America www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

04.04.2025 14:32 — 👍 12    🔁 11    💬 0    📌 1

Tariff retaliation by Canada and Mexico would cause lower GDP than otherwise in all three countries Tariff retaliation by Canada and Mexico would cause higher inflation than otherwise in all three countries

NEW research modeling what would happen to the US, Canadian, & Mexican economies if the US applies tariffs & Mexico & Canada retaliate in kind.
GDP would be *even lower*, & inflation *even higher*, in all three countries. #EconSky
Learn more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

04.02.2025 15:23 — 👍 11    🔁 7    💬 0    📌 0

Europe's challenge and opportunity: Building coalitions of the willing President Donald Trump has launched an all-out attack on the rules-based international order, which most governments regard as the bedrock of peace and prosperity[1]. Many governments are appalled by his initiatives[2]. They still believe in respecting trade rules, in limiting tax competition and in fighting global warming. The European Union, which is governed by such rules, has the potential to organise an effective collective response.

The latest Must Read from PIIE's Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani-Ferry: Europe's challenge and opportunity: Building coalitions of the willing www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

14.02.2025 14:02 — 👍 2    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 0

Opinion | The Dangers of Arbitrary Trade Policy What Mr. Trump is doing with tariffs is a result of a lost consensus about how the United States should interact with other countries in the global economy.

The dangers of a trade policy in which a president chooses targets & punishments at will are becoming increasingly clear. Economic coercion often works in the short run, but it slowly erodes one’s network of influence.
Read Mary Lovely in @nytimes.com:

14.02.2025 16:03 — 👍 15    🔁 8    💬 0    📌 0

CAMA working papers | Crawford School of Public Policy

Check out the latest research in Macroeconomics at the CAMA working paper series. crawford-prod.anu.edu.au/centre-appli... #macroeconomics

16.02.2025 10:06 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The way the music died: Tariffs could hit musical instrument imports www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

18.12.2024 20:55 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0