Juha Karvanen

Two graphs where monotonicity prevents identification

In longitudinal studies, dropout leads to a monotone missing data pattern. We show in a new article that monotonicity sometimes enables and sometimes prevents the identification of  the full law, i.e., the joint distribution of actual variables and response indicators. openreview.net/pdf?id=kVthd...

Clustering and Pruning in Causal Data Fusion Data fusion, the process of combining observational and experimental data, can enable the identification of causal effects that would otherwise remain non-identifiable. Although identification algorit...

In a new preprint, we study causal effect identification with multiple data sources. We show that certain clustering and pruning operations of the causal graph are identification invariant. This means that we may use the smaller graph to make conclusions on the larger graph.
arxiv.org/abs/2505.15215

Figure on the value of information as a function of different parameters

Our paper on the value of information for a risk-averse decision maker was published. Koski, V., Karvanen, J. Risk aversion in the value of information analysis: application to lake management. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (2025) doi.org/10.1007/s004...

Logo of ELLIS Institute Finland (line drawn map of Europe)

ELLIS Institute Finland is hiring Principal Investigators in AI + machine learning. World-class resources for research incl. LUMI supercomputer, generous starting package & professorship affiliation with a university in the world’s happiest country! Apply by March 9: ellisinstitute.fi/PI-recruit

Reminder about these positions - DL tomorrow (8 Jan).

The SBEDE model is released!
It is a statistical model for debiasing systematic biases in expert predictions and ignoring experts who have not proven their competence
#BayesianStats
The article includes a real data portfolio optimization application with stock analysts' target prices
rdcu.be/d3n69

Assistant or Associate Professor in Statistics The department of [Mathematics and Statistics](https://www.jyu.fi/en/science/maths) is seeking to recruit an Assistant or Associate Professor (Tenure Track) in Statistics starting 1st August 2025, or ...

University of Jyväskylä has opened calls for a tenure-track professor and a senior lecturer in statistics:
ats.talentadore.com/apply/assist...
ats.talentadore.com/apply/senior...

In addition, applications are invited for the JYU Visiting Fellow Programme:
ats.talentadore.com/apply/jyu-vi...

A word cloud. "Causal", "data" and "physical" have the largest font size.

Scholar Goggler summarized my research topics.
scholargoggler.com

Multiple imputation and full law identifiability The key problems in missing data models involve the identifiability of two distributions: the target law and the full law. The target law refers to the joint distribution of the data variables, while ...

Santtu Tikka and I wrote two preprints on identification in missing data problems. The results have interesting implications for multiple imputation.

Multiple imputation and full law identifiability, arxiv.org/abs/2410.18688

Monotone missing data: a blessing and a curse, arxiv.org/abs/2411.03848

The optimal mix of inventory methods as a function of the inventory budget.

Forestry is important for the economies of Finland and Sweden and provides interesting problems also for statisticians. In a recent work done in collaboration with Skogforsk, we optimized the inventory decisions in operational forestry. doi.org/10.1093/biom...

A simulation algorithm

Simulating values from a known distribution is a basic task in statistics. But how to simulate from a counterfactual distribution? We consider this question in a recently published paper.

jair.org/index.php/ja...

The proposed algorithm is applied to fairness analysis in credit-scoring.