Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker — Penn Wharton Budget Model The Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker reports the federal government’s daily cash operations, including daily spending, receipts, and deficits.

(3/3) For real-time data on daily tariff revenue collections, see our Real-Time Federal Budget Tracker: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

Tariff Simulator: Revenue and Prices — Penn Wharton Budget Model Estimate changes in tax revenue by selecting from a wide range of different tariff options.

(2/3) For forward-looking analysis, including long-term revenue and effective tariff rate projections, see our tariff simulator: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated September 10, 2025) — Penn Wharton Budget Model The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through July 2025.

PWBM has produced up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through July 2025 based on updated trade and tariff data recently released by the USITC. (1/3)
See details here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

The Cost of the Employee Retention Tax Credit — Penn Wharton Budget Model PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected c...

(2/2) Most of the ERC was paid retroactively, well after pandemic-related economic disruptions had ended, limiting its effectiveness as a worker retention incentive. Read the full analysis here: budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

PWBM estimates that the COVID-era Employee Retention Credit (ERC) will have cost more than $300 billion when the IRS finishes processing claims later in 2025, nearly four times the initial projected cost. (1/2)

The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth — Penn Wharton Budget Model We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually f...

(2/2) AI’s boost to 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘥𝘶𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩 is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually fades, with a permanent effect of less than 0.04 percentage points due to sectoral shifts. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth — Penn Wharton Budget Model We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. AI’s boost to annual productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s but eventually f...

We estimate that AI will increase productivity and GDP by 1.5% by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075. (1/2)

Effective Tariff Rates and Revenues (Updated through June 2025) — Penn Wharton Budget Model The USITC recently released updated trade and tariff data . We use this data to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through June 2025.

(4/4) budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

(3/4) Among major trading partners, China faces the highest tariffs, with effective rates reaching 39.8 percent in June.

Steel and aluminum products are the most heavily tariffed product category at 37.3 percent, followed by automotive vehicles at 18.8 percent.

(2/4) New tariffs have raised $58.5 billion in revenue between January 2025 and June 2025 before accounting for income and payroll tax offsets.

The average effective tariff rate increased to 9.14 percent in June, up from 2.2 percent in January.

We use updated trade and tariff data released by the USITC to provide up-to-date estimates of customs revenue and effective tariff rates through June 2025. (1/4)

Certificate Program — Penn Wharton Budget Model Penn Wharton Budget Model’s (PWBM) Certificate for Policy Professionals is geared toward congressional staffers and other public policy professionals who work in the Washington, DC area. The program w...

...(4/4) Apply by September 7, 2025:
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/certificate-...

...(3/4) to assess a wide range of legislative proposals and analyses.

The program will be led by Professor Kent Smetters and features conversations with Wharton faculty, economic policy specialists, and academic experts.

...(2/4) Designed for Congressional staffers and other public policy professionals, this 6-session online program (October 17, 2025 – February 6, 2026) provides participants with a powerful framework for understanding the economics of public policy and the skills...

#PWBM is excited to announce that applications are now open for the Fall 2025 Wharton Public Policy Certificate Program...(1/4)

Mass Deportation of Unauthorized Immigrants: Fiscal and Economic Effects — Penn Wharton Budget Model It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP, the capital stock, and labor supply, simply due to scale effects. But deportation can also reduce per-capita measu...

...(4/4) Even with new funds provided in the 2025 OBBBA, we estimate that permanent deportation would cost an additional $900 billion over the first 10 years. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

... (3/4) If deportations are reversed after 4 years, authorized low-skilled workers will see their wages eventually fall by 0.6 percent relative to no mass deportations.

...(2/4) Still, authorized low-skilled workers can see their wages increase by as much as 5 percent, but only if the deportation policy is permanently sustained after 4 years.

It is well known that mass deportation reduces aggregate economic variables like GDP, the capital stock, and labor supply, simply due to scale effects. But deportation can also reduce per-capita measures, including GDP per capita, and the average wage rate... (1/4)

Senate Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects — Penn Wharton Budget Model We estimate the Senate-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.1 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.5 trillion. GDP falls b...

We estimate the Senate-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.1 trillion over 10 years. The dynamic cost, including changes to the economy, is larger at $3.5 trillion. GDP falls by 0.3 in 10 years and falls by 4.6 in 30 years. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

The House-Passed Reconciliation Bill: Illustrative Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects with Permanence — Penn Wharton Budget Model If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 21.9 percent in 30 years. GDP remains mostly flat, and wag...

...(2/2) GDP remains mostly flat, and wages fall by 0.3 percent. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

If spending and tax changes in the House-passed reconciliation bill are made permanent, federal debt increases by 9.9 percent in 10 years and 21.9 percent in 30 years...(1/2)

House Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects (May 22, 2025) — Penn Wharton Budget Model We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years. GDP rises slightly, as labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net, but ...

...(2/2) GDP rises slightly, as labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net, but the dynamic score is larger ($3.2 trillion) than the conventional. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

We estimate the House-passed reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $2.8 trillion over 10 years.... (1/2)

(3/3)...PWBM has projected that America will face certain risk of a fiscal crisis within the next two decades, eroding household purchasing power, unless action is taken to reduce federal deficits.

(2/3)...This cost is an addition to a SALT limit of $30,000, which PWBM estimates to cost $224.6 billion, relative to the current $10,000 limit. The total cost of the $40,000 SALT cap, relative to the current $10,000 cap, is $333.7 billion.

Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that increasing the SALT limit from $30,000 to $40,000, with a phase-out starting at $500,000, will add another $109.1 billion in primary deficits over the 10-year budget window....(1/3)

House Reconciliation Bill: Illustrative Calculations with Permanence (May 20, 2025) — Penn Wharton Budget Model If spending and tax changes in Reconciliation are made permanent, federal debt increases by 11.1 percent in 10 years and 24.3 percent in 30 years. GDP remains flat and wages fall by 0.5 percent. Dynam...

If spending and tax changes in Reconciliation are made permanent, federal debt increases by 11.1% in 10 years and 24.3% in 30 years. GDP remains flat and wages fall by 0.5%. Dynamic costs exceed conventional costs in the budget window. #TCJA
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

House Reconciliation Bill: Budget, Economic, and Distributional Effects (May 19, 2025) — Penn Wharton Budget Model We estimate the House reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Even so, GDP rises in the short and long term, as precautionary increases in labor supply and savin...

We estimate the House reconciliation bill increases primary deficits by $3.3 trillion over 10 years. Even so, GDP rises in the short and long term, as precautionary increases in labor supply and savings respond to a reduced social safety net. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...

Raising Top Ordinary Rates: Options under TCJA Extension (Updated) — Penn Wharton Budget Model Under current law, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) will expire at the end of 2025, raising personal income tax rates back to 2017 levels. Some lawmakers propose extending the TCJA but with highe...

...(4/4) Option 3: Extend the TCJA but introduce a new top rate that taxes ordinary income above $2.5 million ($5 million for married filing jointly) at 39.6%. This option reduces the cost of TCJA extension by $22 billion over 10 years. budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2025/...