@paulcerro.bsky.social
CEO @cedargrovech 2x exits // CIO @cedargrovecm multi-strategy investment fund + equity research
We sent out our original note on the $WW back in August but not many people understand the upside here.
The value is in the credit agreement and assuming no upside to projections or the multiple, we're looking at >$25/share of equity value.
See our credit agreement explanation and math below. 1/2
This AM, we sent around our most recent thoughts on $HIMS, likening Andrew Dudum to the infamous "Teflon Don," John Gotti.
Nothing bad seems to stick to this stock, but we outlined 3 potential scenarios that might.
Find it all below.
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-andre...
Going to write up a further explanation of what I'm talking about for $WW
The "value" is from their terms in their credit agreement.
You can keep all assumptions the same and the equity value is worth >2x what it is now.
That's assuming nothing incremental. That's the play.
I truly think we're going to look back on all the OpenAI announcements and wonder why anyone believed they could keep announcing deals with money they don't have or will have over the next few years
It's all pixie dust. Hindsight 20/20
🚨 For students - don't forget that @cedargrovecm offers a student discount at 75% off the annual price.
I know how it feels to want to read research but not be able to afford the full price.
Use the link below to get access. A school email is required!
www.cedargrovecm.com/1be24f84
One thing I had to learn the hard way, which I'm seeing a lot from newcomers, is that a company can have "value" (i.e. hard assets) that make it worth more than what the market is valuing the stock, but that doesn't mean that you can unlock it
Sometimes...it's just paper value.
Everyone's being kept up at night because of $NVDA
I'm sound asleep knowing my teddy bear company, Build-a-Bear $BBW, will do well
Reported earnings this morning
Beats top/bottom and raises
+17% in PM but we'll see what the call says
This AM, we released a new SS report on why we've decided to take a position in Weight Watchers $WW and bet on its turnaround story after exiting bankruptcy.
Have a look below for the key points and link to the report.
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/special-si...
What I'm noticing more and more with stock pitches is that they've been lower and lower quality.
You can tell not much thought or diligence has gone into them. Perhaps it's the market that makes people think making money is easy but that shouldn't make your process any less stringent or in-depth.
In keeping up with the streak that we have going on, I've removed the paywall on our $DKS/$FL arb trade we published back in May
$DKS has rallied hard and the trade is up 6.7% right now
Assuming deal close, annualized return at ~12%
Check it out below for free
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/m-and-a-ar...
I had reservations for $LQDA coming into earnings today since the run up was so extreme but DAMN those patient starts are amazing
Well above even what I thought it was going to be (550 vs 350)
Call will be important but a great win since we published the idea earlier this year
This morning, we shared around a new idea that we think could double that's hiding north of the border
- Retailer operating in a recession-resilient industry
- Has grown topline >20% a Q for the last 11 Qs
Have a look below for key points and link
cedargrovecapital.substack.com/p/a-double-h...
We've done so much work on Capri $CPRI around the divestment of Versace and keeping up with how trends are doing at the stores and the math behind it.
Very pleased with the results this morning. Stock up +16%
Appreciate all of those who read/supported our work
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-bunch-of...
Our recent free article outlines our investment in OneSpaWorld $OSW earlier in the year with just a few hours of research.
Our outline should help fellow investors transfer this thought process to other areas they may be looking at.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/when-misun...
Interesting note on shipping volumes
Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May.
The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier.
Truly cannot wait to share my report on OneSpaWorld $OSW with subs later this summer.
We notified everyone in our sub chat on March 31 that the market was grossly getting this one wrong.
+>24% since but the more important part is around their unique business model.
🙏
02.07.2025 17:21 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Also follow @paulcerro.bsky.social for all things HIMS.
23.06.2025 14:18 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
Shared an ultimate $HIMS thread on Twitter for anyone looking for additional diligence since $NVO pulled their partnership on Monday
Have a look!
x.com/paulcerro/st...
For those of you who haven't heard yet, Novo Nordisk $NVO pulled their collaboration with $HIMS citing issues with their compounding practices and marketing.
Stock down >22% right now
Want to appreciate everyone here who has enjoyed my $HIMS coverage 🙏🏼
Is this bullish because it's presumably over now?
22.06.2025 00:05 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
A follow up for why we said that the recent $HIMS retention claim is misleading.
Based on Gleason data published in May 2024, patients on Wegovy had a ~70% retention rate at the end of three months and didn't dip below 60% until after 4 months 👇🏽
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/hims-anoth...
Another win for us and anyone who went along for the ride. We pitched Owlet $OWLT back in October of last year
Fast forward to today, the stock is up >73% since our pitch 9 months ago
This is just one of the many winners we've profiled.
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/quick-pitc...
Feels good when another PM buys into your trade idea in size. Really makes the work worth it when someone else recognizes the value at play.
Keep writing. Keep sharing.
At $FL's current price, you can get paid to short the stock FWIW even after the borrowing fee
Above $24 and the trade becomes even more asymmetric for $DKS
I always had issues with how companies flat-out change KPIs if it best suits them. Signet Jewelers $SIG is no different, and it’s pretty clear that they’re changing these metrics to fool investors from wondering what’s going on under the hood
www.herbgreenberg.com/p/the-games-...
This morning, we sent out a "bunch of quick updates" regarding positions we've sahred
Those updates are as follows
- Soho House $SHCO
- LENSAR $LNSR
- Liquidia $LQDA
- Capri $CPRI
- GEN Restaurant $GENK
- DICK'S $DKS/ $FL
- Hims $HIMS
Can find it below. Enjoy
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/a-bunch-of...
Had the pleasure to speak with @TSOH_Investing regarding our views on the Peloton $PTON turnaround, what we liked/disliked, and discussed our views for the company going forward.
We've also included our quick take on the matter as well 👇
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/ic-5-can-p...
In case people haven't seen yet, Build-a-Bear $BBW had another blow out quarter. Stock up 19% right now in PM
+36% since our March 19 update
Will follow up next week along with other earnings updates
The only bear I've been betting on since 2022 🚀
www.cedargrovecm.com/p/updates-cp...
