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Paul Cerro

@paulcerro.bsky.social

CEO @cedargrovech 2x exits // CIO @cedargrovecm multi-strategy investment fund + equity research

13,108 Followers  |  28 Following  |  262 Posts  |  Joined: 20.01.2025
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Posts by Paul Cerro (@paulcerro.bsky.social)

FinTwit sentiment for almost everything

When the price is up: "Yea exactly, the market is right. Definitely makes sense."

When the price is down: "Market is wrong! It's these stupid shorts and Jane Street trying to tear it all down! You just don't get it dude! Manipulation!"

28.02.2026 13:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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$REAL blew past estimates! +6% right now

People really do not understand the tailwinds with this trend and why $REAL is best positioned for.

$REAL is www.cedargrovecm.com 's 2nd largest position.

Factoring ~200bps of margin improvement in 2026 w/ growth just under GMV growth

26.02.2026 22:52 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

"Unfortunately, raising taxes and cutting spending, the most straightforward solutions, are not politically palatable."

26.02.2026 15:57 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Thought this was interesting

Gross public debt-to-GDP ratios rose 42% on average in most recent global 2024 IMF data and now exceed 100% in seven of 10 developed markets

26.02.2026 15:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Tender offer going through by WHP for $LE shares at $45/share

By the end of the buying, WHP will own 7% of $LE

Remember, all you need is just ONE good idea to pay for a research services annual cost

To anyone that went in and tendered, congrats πŸŽ‰

26.02.2026 12:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Quite frustrating when you're looking at a company's adjusted EBITDA add-backs and they keep expensing things as if it's a "one-time charge" even though it keeps showing up quarter after quarter after quarter

Clearly, it's not a one-time expense!

25.02.2026 17:05 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Could make the argument!

21.02.2026 16:24 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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A study done by Voy regarding weight loss outcomes from those who use digital health support

At every check-in, for those who were engaged, patients lost MORE weight than those who were not engaged. Supporting the role that weight loss support providers play in patient outcomes $WW

21.02.2026 13:52 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

$EVLV is interesting because it seems like every week you get some type of deal or article highlighting a new deal/client or upgrade and yet this thing continues to dump

20.02.2026 19:40 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Does the U.S. Actually Have a Housing Shortage? Why the U.S. has plenty of houses yet still not enough supply.

Great article on the case of why we actually **don't** have a housing problem

ofdollarsanddata.com/does-the-us-...

19.02.2026 02:23 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Quick Special Situation: Restaurant Take-Private w/ Potential Bidding War Why this prized restaurant asset could strike up a bidding war amongst bidders looking to shore up their position in the quick service restaurant (QSR) space. Potential return could be in excess of 35...

This trade is in the restaurant space, and after stock prices in the industry were hammered last year, it looks like sharks are starting to circle stable, asset-light businesses while valuations are depressed.

See which one we're talking about in the note below that could lead to a bidding war.

17.02.2026 13:17 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Quick Special Situation: Restaurant Take-Private w/ Potential Bidding War Why this prized restaurant asset could strike up a bidding war amongst bidders looking to shore up their position in the quick service restaurant (QSR) space. Potential return could be in excess of 35...

Yesterday, we released a quick special situation trade based on one of our six investment themes for 2026.

1/2

www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/quick-spec...

17.02.2026 13:17 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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White-label telehealth provider, pharmacy sued over 'snake oil' compounded oral GLP-1 OpenLoop, a company providing operational and tech services to telehealth companies, and compounding pharmacy Triad Rx are being sued in a class action for selling oral tirzepatide. | TheΒ complaint ac...

More lawsuits in the compounded oral world of GLP-1s

White-label telehealth provider, pharmacy sued over 'snake oil' compounded oral GLP-1

www.linkedin.com/redir/redire...

13.02.2026 21:30 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image 12.02.2026 12:59 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

One could argue that if $WW stabilizes, a re-rating could move to the base case from the bull case

11.02.2026 12:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Something came up - need to cancel. Will do another day

10.02.2026 18:10 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Scheduled: Quick Take on $HIMS Post Monday Suit Paul Cerro’s Space Β· Where live audio conversations happen

Set a reminder for my upcoming Space on $HIMS

x.com/i/spaces/1vA...

10.02.2026 12:43 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

As much as I want them to go that far, I also don't think they will. They'll eventually settle something but it will still be very crippling to HIMS now that it has to worry about $1 billion of debt

09.02.2026 21:51 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Since $NVO has decided to sue $HIMS, and I'm sure people are too lazy to click on things, here's the page from our March 3rd report explaining treble damages

09.02.2026 20:08 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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BofA lowers $HIMS PT to $13

09.02.2026 20:07 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Scott Gottlieb, former FDA commissioner, says Hims & Hers ( $HIMS) could face serious regulatory consequences after the company attempted to sell an unapproved oral GLP-1

09.02.2026 20:06 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HIMS: Napoleon Watches Moscow Burn Why we think Andrew's push deep into compounding GLP-1 land (Russia) has now reached its peak, and the drop is looking like quite the tumble.

This morning, we released an updated note on $HIMS after the drama that happened over Friday and the weekend.

In this note, we break down how the FDA could do it and the downside could be >80% from Friday's close.

$NVO has also sued HIMS this morning.

www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/hims-napol...

09.02.2026 12:43 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Tommorrow. 7am EST.

$HIMS: Napoleon Watches Moscow Burn

www.cedargroveresearch.com

09.02.2026 00:53 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Home | Cedar Grove Capital Management Multi-strategy investment fund focused on L/S, M&A Arb, and other Special Situations.

I'm going to do my best to release our next $HIMS report either tomorrow morning or, as a fallback, before overnight trading kicks off.

Some new developments occurred earlier this afternoon, which changed some of the unknowns.

Get it in the usual place

www.cedargroveresearch.com

07.02.2026 23:32 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸŽ™οΈ IC #9: Talking Telehealth and HIMS w/ Ashwin Sharma Our chat on all things telehealth and our views on HIMSwith our medical friend from across the pond

Have a listen below for free, and see why within 24hours, it all made sense.

www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-9-talki...

06.02.2026 17:38 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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πŸŽ™οΈ IC #9: Talking Telehealth and HIMS w/ Ashwin Sharma Our chat on all things telehealth and our views on HIMSwith our medical friend from across the pond

On Wednesday, we released our new podcast episode with Dr. Ashwin to discuss telehealth and $HIMS

The timing couldn't have been more perfect. We talked

➑️ The issues with their GRAIL test
➑️ The dark side of lab tests and telehealth in general
➑️ The SNAC patent (perfectly timed)
➑️ And much more

06.02.2026 17:38 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The disgusting thing about the recent $HIMS drawdown is that all the pumpers of the name are making jokes in order to cope with how wrong they were/are with no remorse for influencing naive retail traders to go down with the ship alongside them.

Once garbage, always garbage.

06.02.2026 13:03 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The $QQQ and $SPY are only down less than 5% and 2% over the last week but according to most on FinTwit, you think we all just entered nuclear Armageddon.

04.02.2026 19:06 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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This morning, we released our recent note on a special situation trade regarding Abivax $ABVX and the rumors around a potential buyout.

The company has a stellar, de-risked drug asset, and we think the downside is limited.

See why we're optimistic below
www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/special-si...

04.02.2026 17:54 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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This morning, I sent out my conversation with Ashwin where we talk about telehealth and $HIMS specifically

Perfect timing, too, because we go into
➑️ GRAIL cancer screening
➑️ Telehealth's future
➑️ The dark side of telehealth
➑️ $HIMS treatment offerings

www.cedargroveresearch.com/p/ic-9-talki...

04.02.2026 16:27 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0