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Newsletter by Anders Puck Nielsen.

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Maritime hybrid war is here to stay By Alexander With: Russia is waging a hybrid war against NATO in general, and in particular against the European countries that are most actively helping Ukraine. The war is being fought with every tool in the Russian toolbox, including, but not limited to, sabotage, cyberattacks, subversion, violations of sovereignty, fake news, and threats. It is a war beneath the threshold of conventional war. Attacks are common, but they rarely cause casualties. Instead, they cause fear, uncertainty, and ec

Maritime hybrid war is here to stay

27.10.2025 16:36 — 👍 2    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Trump turns on Ukraine — again In this video, I discuss the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky on Friday. Trump failed to take the tough stance on Russia that the European leaders apparently thought he would, and instead we are back to him repeating Russian talking points. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, I thought I'd do a quick video on the Trump-Zelensky meeting that happened on Friday and the reactions to it afterwards and where it leaves Ukraine and Europ

Trump turns on Ukraine — again

21.10.2025 08:16 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Russia at war — free ebook Earlier this year, Alexander With and I wrote a chapter in an anthology about the Russian military following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We focused on the maritime aspect, while colleagues from the Royal Danish Defence College and other Danish academic institutions contributed chapters on other topics. The book was released in Danish in the spring, and now it's available in English as well. The good news is that the English version is an ebook and completely free (unlike the Danish edit

Russia at war — free ebook

17.10.2025 19:24 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine? In this video, I discuss whether the United States will provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, what difference it would make in the war if they do, and whether Tomahawk is really the right capability for Ukraine if you want to achieve the most military effect. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. In this video, I want to talk about Tomahawk missiles. There is a lot of talk about Tomahawk missiles right now. There are many discussions about how the U

Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine?

15.10.2025 19:54 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Why Putin didn't take Trump's deal back in the spring In this video, I discuss why Putin did not accept Trump's offer of a peace deal back in the spring when the American president was presenting him with a variety of important concessions. Instead, he rejected the proposals. Several high-profile YouTubers have recently argued that Putin made a big mistake. However, I think they overestimate the extent to which such a deal was ever realistically an option on the table for Putin. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders. T

Why Putin didn't take Trump's deal back in the spring

10.10.2025 20:02 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
What is Ukraine saving its missiles for? In this video, I discuss President Zelensky's announcement that attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter will be met with similar attacks on the Russian power grid. This is interesting because it means that Ukraine is venturing into the area of military deterrence rather than just ongoing warfighting, and it indicates that the power balance may be shifting in Ukraine's favor. It may also explain why we haven't seen Ukraine's powerful Flamingo missiles in more extensive use since th

What is Ukraine saving its missiles for?

05.10.2025 21:53 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
International law is dying, and it's a massive American own goal By Alexander With International law has long been an important regulator of wars and conflicts, but recent developments have weakened it to the point where it is now fighting for its relevancy. To the detriment of Europe – and the United States. The laws regulating the conduct of war (jus in bello) and the circumstances under which wars can be fought (jus ad bellum) can be seen as an attempt to limit suffering and cruelty in wars, as well as to prevent wars from being fought in the first place

International law is dying, and it's a massive American own goal

04.10.2025 07:31 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Hybrid war and drones over Denmark Drone sightings in Denmark appear to be the next iteration of Russia's hybrid war against Western Europe. In this video, I discuss what happened, reflect on the public reaction, and ponder how Western European populations seem unprepared for what likely lies ahead. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. In this video, I want to talk a bit about the drone sightings that have happened in Denmark and the public reaction to it and what I think it says ab

Hybrid war and drones over Denmark

26.09.2025 15:52 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Europe needs more long-range missiles This week, Denmark decided to procure long-range precision missiles in what the Prime Minister has called a paradigm shift in Danish military thinking. This decision has sparked a debate in Denmark that inspired me to make this video. It seems that many people do not fully understand the crucial role that long-range missiles play in modern warfare and the disadvantage Western Europe currently faces in the event of a war with Russia. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Ande

Europe needs more long-range missiles

21.09.2025 20:45 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Can NATO make the tank and mechanised warfare work again? By Alexander With The highly anticipated Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023 ended with pictures of burning Western-made tanks and a clear Ukrainian defeat. The Ukrainians, equipped with modern Western armour and having undergone Western training, were expected to punch through the lines and cut the Russian defences in two. I covered the lack of successful usage of tanks in this war in a previous post. The question in this article is whether the tank is dead, or whether NATO could overcome the p

Can NATO make the tank and mechanised warfare work again?

16.09.2025 09:57 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
What should the response be to the drones over Poland? In this video, I discuss the Russian drones in Poland, and what an appropriate response would be from NATO. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, it's been a couple of days since Russia launched a number of drones over Poland, and I thought I'd share my thoughts about it. First, what happened? Well, a number of drones, I've heard anything between 19 and 25 drones were sent by Russia into Polish airspace. A number of them came over Ukraine and a numbe

What should the response be to the drones over Poland?

12.09.2025 20:00 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
European security depends on Ukraine In this video, I reflect on the discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine and explain why they are still immature. It's good that there is now a focus on security guarantees rather than Ukraine needing to make territorial concessions. However, it is a significant mistake to view Ukrainian security as independent of broader questions about European security as a whole. Western Europe needs Ukraine as much as Ukraine needs Western Europe. This point was illustrated quite vividly with the R

European security depends on Ukraine

11.09.2025 07:36 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Horizontal escalation is the key to security guarantees for Ukraine In this video, I discuss why security guarantees for Ukraine must go beyond just defeating Russian aggression on Ukrainian territory. The key to deterrence is to ensure that Russia faces the threat of uncontrollable escalation if it ever attacks again – and that requires Western countries to think about horizontal escalation. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, in this video I want to quickly talk about security guarantees. It's again all over the

Horizontal escalation is the key to security guarantees for Ukraine

04.09.2025 21:05 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Is tank warfare dead, or is Russia just saving them for later? By Alexander With The Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan was an omen of things to come. Azerbaijan used Turkish-produced drones to devastating effect against Armenian tanks, securing an impressive victory in just 44 days. However, it was the war in Ukraine that truly became the world’s first large-scale “drone war.” The use of drones in this conflict has grown exponentially. In December 2023, Ukraine produced more drones than in all of 2022 combined. In 2024, Ukraine p

Is tank warfare dead, or is Russia just saving them for later?

29.08.2025 09:42 — 👍 5    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Why are there suddenly so many breakthroughs on the front line? In this video, I discuss a new phenomenon on the front lines in Ukraine, where it appears to be easier for both sides to penetrate the front line and suddenly appear in the rear areas of the enemy. A large part of the reason is manpower shortages, but it is also a deliberate strategy to remove soldiers from the front line as much as possible. This means that we need to understand the front line much more as a large gray zone than a distinct line on a map. Watch the video here or read a transcri

Why are there suddenly so many breakthroughs on the front line?

28.08.2025 14:15 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Putin is trapped by Trump's misunderstandings In this video, I discuss the meetings in Alaska and Washington, D.C. about the peace process for Ukraine. I think many people have been too quick to declare the Alaska meeting a victory for Putin. It's interesting how Trump insists on claiming that Putin made concessions he clearly did not make. Either Trump doesn't understand the issues at all, or it's a sophisticated negotiation strategy that resembles entrapment. In either case, it might become a problem for Putin. Watch the video here or re

Putin is trapped by Trump's misunderstandings

20.08.2025 06:52 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Did Putin really win in Alaska? In this video I discuss the outcome of the summit in Alaska. Most people seem to agree that Putin came out as a winner, but I am not so sure. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Transcript: Hi, so we got through the summit in Alaska and I just wanted to add my comments. First, what came out of it? I think in the big picture, nothing came out of it. And that is a good result. I think the big concern was that we were going to see Trump and Putin starting to draw lines on a map

Did Putin really win in Alaska?

16.08.2025 16:49 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
What we can learn about avoiding a Russian surprise attack from the Yom Kippur War By Alexander With During the summer holidays, I read "The Watchman Fell Asleep: The Surprise of Yom Kippur and its sources” by Uri Bar-Joseph, which delves into the surprise attack on Israel that started the Yom Kippur War in 1973. There are several lessons from that war which could also be relevant today in a Russia-NATO scenario: * Israel had excellent intelligence indicating that Egypt and Syria were planning to attack. The problem wasn’t a lack of intelligence, but a lack of willingness

What we can learn about avoiding a Russian surprise attack from the Yom Kippur War

14.08.2025 16:07 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
The land mine treaty is a problem In this video I discuss why a number of countries are withdrawing from the Ottawa treaty that bans the use of anti-personnel mines, and why more countries probably should follow suit. It is a deeply problematic arms control arrangement that hurts the countries that are concerned about a Russian invasion. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. --Anders Transcript: In this video, I want to talk about land mines. A number of countries have announced that they are leaving

The land mine treaty is a problem

13.08.2025 20:53 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

My hosting provider has made Bluesky sharing a native feature, and it is a much better way to follow Logic of War than the workaround I had set up. I will therefore be retiring this account. I recommend everyone follow the one below instead.

13.08.2025 08:01 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Putin sees Alaska meeting as a step toward victory Hello, Here are some more reflections about the upcoming meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska. In my last video about it, I focused mostly on why Trump is interested in the meeting, and how the Russians are using it to win time. In this video I reflect a bit more about why the meeting is also important for Putin. However, it is very unlikely that it will lead to anything, other than perhaps a political crisis in the West. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. If you

Putin sees Alaska meeting as a step toward victory

09.08.2025 16:06 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Meeting between Putin and Trump — first thoughts Hello, In this video I discuss the meeting between Putin and Trump that has been announced. Since I recorded it, the confusion about the meeting has only grown bigger, and it now looks less sure that it will take place. It will be interesting to see what comes of it, but in either case, it is hard to see that it will bring anything good for the peace process in Ukraine. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: It has been confirmed that there wi

Meeting between Putin and Trump — first thoughts

07.08.2025 21:01 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Can Russia win a war against NATO? Hello, This is my first post on Logic of War. I am looking forward to contributing. In this first post, I discuss whether Russia can win a war against NATO. It is not a detailed look at the capabilities, but rather a discussion about what one needs to consider, and especially why it would be a mistake to be overconfident that NATO could easily handle such a challenge. Sincerely, Alexander By Alexander With The question of whether Russia can win a war against NATO is being hotly debated at th

Can Russia win a war against NATO?

04.08.2025 15:50 — 👍 3    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Trump threatens Russia with nuclear weapons Hello, In this video I discuss Trump's announcement that he has ordered two nuclear submarines into positions to attack Russia as a response to a crazy tweet by Medvedev. I also announce that a new author will soon begin to appear on this site. My colleague Alexander With has agreed to write occasional posts, and I am very much looking forward to it. Alexander is a great military analyst, and I believe his perspective will add a valuable dimension. As always you can see the video on the websi

Trump threatens Russia with nuclear weapons

02.08.2025 10:56 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
Fighter jets and the drone revolution Hello, In this video I discuss whether the West's air power advantage will save Western Europe from the perils of the drone revolution. This is the primary counterargument I have heard since releasing my video on how NATO has missed the drone revolution. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: In this video, I want to address an argument that I have often received as feedback when I have said that drones are creating a revolution in military te

Fighter jets and the drone revolution

30.07.2025 19:43 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Anti-corruption protests in Ukraine Hello, In this video, I discuss the turmoil about the independence of anti-corruption agencies in Ukraine. It has been a dramatic week where Ukrainian domestic politics suddenly dominated the agenda. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. If you feel it's been a little quiet from my side over the last couple of weeks, that's because I am on vacation and I'm trying to take a bit of time off. But I wanted to just make a quick video about thi

Anti-corruption protests in Ukraine

24.07.2025 18:12 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Weapons sales and a 50 days ultimatum to Putin Hello, In this video, I comment on Trump's big announcement about Russia, which essentially can be boiled down to him now allowing Ukraine to purchase weapons in the US. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Trancript: A couple of days ago, Donald Trump and Mark Rutte together made an announcement that was framed as a big announcement on Russia and a big change in American policy towards the war in Ukraine and Russia in general. And as you can see, I'm traveling,

Weapons sales and a 50 days ultimatum to Putin

19.07.2025 13:28 — 👍 5    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
Why is everyone warning about China right now? Hello, Over the last week, there have been quite a few stories in the news about the threat from China, which have frankly been puzzling. So in this video, I speculate on what's going on. As usual, watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: One of the nice things about this channel is that I can share things that are not necessarily totally finished thoughts from my side, but more just something I've been wondering about or find puzzling and where

Why is everyone warning about China right now?

08.07.2025 19:05 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
War update – Is Trump helping Russia now? Hello, In this video, which is recorded in a tiny hotel room in rainy Amsterdam, I look at the Russian summer offensive. So far, the results have been disappointing for Russia. I also discuss the air war, which is intensifying. Both sides are able to send an increasing number of missiles and drones against each other, and Ukraine (and Russia as well) struggle with air defenses. Finally, I touch on the American pause in the deliveries of weapons to Ukraine. The official message is that it was a

War update – Is Trump helping Russia now?

08.07.2025 06:39 — 👍 6    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
Trump pauses weapons deliveries for Ukraine Hello, In this video, I discuss the news that the Trump administration is apparently going to withhold a range of weapons that were assigned for Ukraine, including, most importantly, different air defense systems. This will leave Ukraine more vulnerable to Russian airstrikes and once again shows that Europe needs a new approach to dealing with Trump to actually get what they want. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. I just wanted to com

Trump pauses weapons deliveries for Ukraine

02.07.2025 21:34 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

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