Paweł Wójcik 🦋🇵🇱🇪🇺

*The war between the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and Pakistan continues in many areas, sparking a significant refugee crisis, so far contained and supported by the UN agencies. Those however, are at maximum capacity, overwhelmed preparing in the whole region.

Questions everywhere. We are soon to have the full week of war and it only expands further. Europeans have joined the defence of Arab states, especially the UK and France, bound by agreemens with the Gulf. Iran continues to refuse to give in.
It's only the beginning.

There is an open question now, what exactly will the dictator of Azerbaijan be planning. Azerbaijan has been at the Iranian border for a few days, prepared just as the Turks have been. Some calculations may change, now that he was provoked by Iranian drones in the morning.

According to UN, on Monday at least 30 000 Lebanese escaped north,trying to seek shelter, though obviously it's been two days and the influx has since grown.
There is an issue with Shias, with Christians and Sunnis refusing to accomodate them, blaming them for Israel's invasion.

*Israel is yet to expand its campaign in Lebanon, with the ground ops likely to be launched against Hezbollah soon, though President Macron of France seems to be invested in brokering agreements. Given the history of those... I doubt Israel will honor it for much longer.

*Israel and the US are jointly operating inside Iraqi provinces, with some forces confirmed operating on the ground and wiping out Iranian affiliates - Iraq itself seems to be trying to slowly distance themselves from Hashd, even though it continues to be part of government.

I obviously continue to urge the terrorism angle problem, that is bound to arise, once IRGC is forced to seriously consider shifting resources to halt any Kurdish incursion - as we have seen in the last two days, this is still a major event likely to happen, promoted by Trump.

Given the extent of the US bombings that is in part focused on shattering Iranian capacity to monopolise violence in many parts of the country, annihilating police stations, communication towers, anti-terror bases, there are increasing concers of what next.

It matters because of budget constraints and all humanitarian organisations preparing supplies in and nearby Iran, in case of a massive influx of escaping Iranians. Depending on how the US/Israeli campaign goes, we may see first signs soon.

UN estimates the returned in recent two years Afghans from Iran and Pakistan to be over 5 mln, which is even more than I wrote 3 days ago here, pointing out the arriving problem

*The war between the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and Pakistan continues in many areas, sparking a significant refugee crisis, so far contained and supported by the UN agencies. Those however, are at maximum capacity, overwhelmed preparing in the whole region.

Exclusive: Hezbollah elite fighters return to south Lebanon to fight Israeli troops, Lebanese sources say Hezbollah has deployed elite fighters to confront Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, sending them back into the border ​region from which they withdrew after a war in 2024, three Lebanese sources fam...

Exclusive: Hezbollah elite fighters return to south Lebanon to fight Israel, after the withdrawal in 2024 .

www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/hezbollah-elite-fighters-return-south-lebanon-fight-israeli-troops-lebanese-2026-03-05/

Kinda ok

A lot of people used to deny Iran is a threat to anyone, dismissing such fears, but the Arabs built up their arsenal in last decade purely for something this

This, missiles, drones, widespread and deliberate madness, external terrorism in Europe, US, LATAM, connected to what Saddam was accused of, but Iran is rightly being constantly watched for, is how it all looked like an enormous sword among the Arabs heads.

This is also what everyone in the Arab world feared every time Iranian Quds operatives were involved in genocides and no one could retaliate back, especially with US reluctant to do much in recent decades.
You had to fight them with one hand bound behind your back.

If anything, Aliyev is going to double down viciously.
This here, my fellow readers, is how you also involve Europe, now that the Gulf is as good as closed

Iranian Shaheed deliberately bombing an Azeri airport is one of those decisions that IRGC no longer has any capacity to think of consequences. Purely paranoid. Rationale behind it ofc exists but it's going to be stretched to maximum.

There indeed seems to be some thought to confuse IRGC and make them paranoid of a hammer, they wouldn't know where exactly would land.

And this wave of CIA talking to all journalists is them sending a message through media to interested parties.
I don't like it.

They really want to make a comeback of some kind of Enduring Freedom, with Northern Alliance of Kurdish version. I'd like to hear more of what the CIA is exactly counting on. Because it seems to me, that there are also "Eastern" and "Southern" Alliances covertly crafted...

My brain already hurts from imagining the despair, hunger, smuggling, dark market, sex trafficking, slavery, illicit trade, terrorism that are bound to emerge once this fiasco continues. Am I dooming? Maybe. But it's a legit concern.

I will politely skip the Taliban - even with the Talibs doing everything they can, they couldn't stop the creeping in crisis, with millions of new citizens, even before Pakistan attacked. Who will pay? Noone there will pay. It's us. The EU again.

Iran is about to lose state capacity to control and maintain stability of fleeing Iranians, while Kurdish and Balochi areas already are looking like they will soon be abandoned by IRGC.

Both Iran and Pakistan have been for the last year, expelling millions of refugees from Afghanistan back, some long-term, with their arrival dating back to Soviet invasion.

Most of refugees will be fleeing inwards or across the borders, but UN agencies quite literally have no resources, with their budgets cut once again last year.
I expect us, the European Union, to fund it all in big quantity, no way the United States will pay for destruction they cause.

Well, Hezbollah again commits suicide and invites Lebanon's doom in the process.
Dying for Ayatollahs thousands of kms away. We are about to face a refugee crisis of unbelievable proportions from Lebanon, Iran, Afghanistan, parts of Pakistan. And it's still just day 5.

And here it is at last - Turkey announces it has downed an Iranian missile heading towards its airspace, with its remnants falling down in Hatay province. #Turkey

Still, to watch. I imagine my constant urging for months on the terror angle in Iran is now very justified. Especially, where two wars in Balochistan are now ongoing and are slowly converging, in both Iranian and Pakistani.

Be careful of claims related to Jaish al Adl now that we have a really enormous chance a ground invasion will happen, so insurgents are in spotlight more.
They have been conducting a long insurgency, so unless signs are really visible, those attacks don't mean anything yet.