Carolina Garriga

Paper w/ @carogarriga.bsky.social: Academia’s Class Problem. PoliSci is dominated by the upper middle class / people with parents who went to university – unlike society as a whole.
dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn...

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Trump 2.0: overhaul of counter-terrorism policy massively expands US list of bad guys The US now counts drug runners as terrorists, expanding the number of groups is it targeting.

"Trump 2.0: overhaul of counter-terrorism policy massively expands US list of bad guys"

I wrote about how the US Foreign Terrorist Organization list radically changed in the past year- growing faster than ever, and now including drug-trafficking orgs.

theconversation.com/trump-2-0-ov...

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Trump's Fed fight looks like something from another country Donald Trump's stand-off with the US central bank has recalled episodes in other countries - which ended badly for the economy.

I spoke with the BBC about the institutional implications of using the justice system to pressure the Fed. The piece also includes comments from @Carola Binder and Martin Redrado, who finds this attack surprisingly familiar.

Also, bonus citation to my paper on CBI 😊.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

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Is there a gender gap in satisfaction with monetary policy? @carogarriga.bsky.social examines attitudes towards the Bank of England, finding a small, but statistically significant, gender gap. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/xQEILsN

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

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Is there a gender gap in satisfaction with monetary policy? @carogarriga.bsky.social examines attitudes towards the Bank of England, finding a small, but statistically significant, gender gap. Read OPEN ACCESS: buff.ly/xQEILsN

@polstudiesassoc.bsky.social @uoypolitics.bsky.social @sagepub.com

3/ The results do not suggest that women systematically misunderstand inflation. The gap cannot be reduced to “misperceptions.”

4/ Measuring public opinion on institutions requires care. Ignoring who opts out of answering can lead to misleading conclusions.

📌Why this matters

1/ Central banks depend on public trust for legitimacy and efficacy, yet we know little about who is satisfied with their performance and why.

2/ Public confidence reflects not only economic outcomes, but also communication, salience, & who expresses an opinion

⚠️Selection matters, a lot.

Women are less likely to
• provide an opinion rather than answering “don’t know,” &
• express extreme evaluations.

This biases estimates, making the gender gap appear larger than it truly is, and seeming statistically significant when it's not.

🎯 Nor do women “punish” the Bank more harshly for missing the target.

As inflation (or deflation) grows, the gender gap in performance evaluation shrinks and ultimately vanishes.

📈 What about inflation perceptions?

Women do not systematically overestimate inflation relative to men (after controlling for selection).

And differences in perceived inflation do not explain the gender gap in evaluations of the Bank.

⏳ Importantly, the gender gap in evaluation varies over time (it is not persistent across all years).

In some periods, including the recent inflation surge, there is no statistically significant difference between men’s and women’s evaluations of the Bank's performance.

❓ Is there a gender gap?

Yes, but modest and not persistent.

After accounting for ≠ propensities to express an opinion, the gender gap in satisfaction with the Bank’s performance is statistically significant but substantively smaller than what descriptive data would suggest

🎓 New paper in Political Studies (@polstudies.bsky.social)

I examine whether there are gendered differences in how people
• evaluate the Bank of England’s performance in controlling, &
• perceive and react to inflation more broadly.

🔗 Open access: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

tltr? 🧵👇

“As we have seen here in America, one person can do a whole lot to change the overall trajectory of politics,” said Hamm. “I think Milei is one of those. You just get the feel when you meet someone, as I did when I met President Trump...”