COUPSURE

La Syrie est le seul endroit où les avions-cargos de l'armée de l'air russe font escale avec du fret pour les opérations militaires en Afrique. Il n'y a pas d'alternative pour le moment.

Without Syria, Russian operations in Africa would face a critical sustainment gap, with no viable alternatives for logistical continuity. The Navy would also struggle to offset the loss of the Syria-Africa air corridor, further weakening force projection.

The loss of Khmeimim Air Base would have profound operational consequences. This strategic hub is essential for sustaining Russia’s power projection across the M-E, Africa, and South and Central America. Its loss would disrupt the logistics supporting military aircraft transiting to these regions.

Great thread.

It's worth noting Russia has a tendency to lie about chemical attacks in Syria just to set mood music, rather than pre-empt specific incidents www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/20...

Tobruk

Wonder what impact this will have on Russian ops in Africa. Syria is the main stop for all military forces and equipment sent to Africa.

ICBM TELs are expensive 🤷🏻‍♂️

There is a saying that people with big cars are try to compensate for something…

You mention accessing the Russian passport database. Is that something you are able to do using contacts within the Russian data market or are you using a telegram bot or other similar service ?

In other news. Swedish minesweeper M77 has spent a good part of the day doing something close to what I believe is Aurora, a brand new comms cable. Their words: "Super mega fiber cable"

Yi Peng 3 passed that exact spot. Probably worth more investigation. Not sure the cable is even operating yet.

I think CN ship Yi Peng 3 is being detained. Suspect in cable incidents.

She slowed down to a crawl in Kattegatt, manouvered to 400 meters inside DK territory. DK navy patrol P525 to her port.

Guess: she is detained, awaiting either DE, FI or SE staff since they are the countries affected.

Looks recent!

Gallup, the famous analytics firm known for its public opinion polls, recently released a study titled "Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War." The data might sound controversial, with many citing the headline without delving deeper into the survey. 🧵Thread:

Permission to strike with ATACMS came as timely as it did in October 2023, when the counteroffensive was essentially over.

Don’t expect a major shift on the battlefield, as the nature of the setbacks for a Ukrainian army comes from different issues, especially if it’s limited to a Kursk only

Ракет вистачить ще на 5-8 ударів. РФ може атакувати Україну ледь не щотижня, - експерт Подробиці читайте на сайті

Russian missile attacks on Ukraine could continue weekly, with enough missile in stock for 5-8 more strikes of such size, warns expert Oleksandr Musiyenko. According to him, the threat may persist until the inauguration of US President Donald Trump.

www.rbc.ua/rus/news/rak...

Агентство. Новости Семья подозреваемого в отравлении Скрипалей сменила фамилию Жена и дочь Анатолия Чепиги, подозреваемого в отравлении Сергея Скрипаля и его дочери Юлии, сменили фамилию. Теперь у всех из них паспорта ...

Remember Anatoly Chepiga, one of the two church spire enthusiasts involved in the Skripal poisoning?
Agentstvo is reporting that his wife, son, and daughter legally changed their names.

Say hello to the Korulin/Korulinas.

t.me/agentstvonew...

This was predictable. Seoul must respond immediately, not six months from now. Failing to act will only strengthen Russia-DPRK relations.

I have begun to assemble a list of high quality OSINT accounts from Twitter that have migrated or added a presence here. The list will grow as I find the rest.

Give them a follow here:
go.bsky.app/NX7M9nT

GeoConfirmed announcement.

We will ramp up our efforts on Blue Sky.

Our lead admin 👇 explains how to tag us in geolocations.

Our biggest problem is still the amount of text you can use on BlueSky, but we will see what we can do to work around that problem.

Family of Russian spy reportedly changed surname after Bellingcat exposed husband’s true identity — Meduza The family of one of the Russian secret agents suspected of poisoning Sergei Skripal and his daughter with Novichok in March 2018 (and accidentally killing Dawn Sturgess three months later) has change...

Family of Russian spy reportedly changed surname after Bellingcat exposed husband’s true identity
meduza.io/en/news/2024...

The number of 'Shahed' drones Russia have launched towards Ukraine in recent weeks is staggering. Throughout November so far, the Ukrainian AF has reported more than 1,100 Shahed launches. This is more than any single month this year with the exception of September and October.

It’s nice to see talented people moving from Twitter to BlueSky :) I’m might post from time to time again.

You don’t see this everyday

I can’t believe Utkin and Prigozhin were stupid enough to get in the same plane…

De-nazification is working!

Re AD in Toula Oblast as well. Moscow Vnukovo airspace is closed.

I propose that Russia invades Finland to go get him back

Explosions reported in Sevastopol. Local telegram channels say an exercise is ongoing. https://t.me/chp_sevastopol/19835

З національним святом, друзі-українці. Перемога буде за вами!