John West

Doing this for the approval of a few broadsheet columnists and a bunch of imaginary voters who'll never vote for you anyway is terrible politics. There are no winners here.

Trump's off-ramp re. Iran is very unclear - which differentiates this episode from other shocks he's been responsible for. I covered this in my Mergermarket column this week (see below) and heartily recommend reading @explaintrade.com's thread and following him.

A tweet from the Daily Mail with a headline saying "Four biblical signs the world has entered the end of days as US bombs Iran

This perfectly illustrates my point that the British tabloids are aiming at a US audience. There like 5 people in the UK who think about this. But it is huge among US evangelicals.

British politicians need to ignore UK tabloids, as UK tabloids are talking to an audience in the US for clicks.

"Today’s OBR projections reveal two competing realities in government right now. The OBR and Treasury forecast an upturn in net migration, which makes their fiscal numbers add up – while the Home Office says it is determined to drive net migration down still further. They can’t have it both ways".

'Separatism' is when British Muslims vote for the most socially liberal candidate in the race to stop Matt Goodwin, who Kemi Badenoch herself explicitly said was a threat to minority life in this country, becoming an MP.

As the laid off Middle East News Editor, I concur. Management eliminated the positions of every single staff correspondent and bureau chief in the Middle East.

Screenshot of a post from Arin Dube outlining that the market prices in TACO, meaning Trump’s extremes have to be more extreme for markets to get worried enough for Trump to have to TACO.

Great, as ever. Reminded of @arindube.bsky.social’s excellent TACO cycle post.

Its genuinely mad that we are, arguably, the most successful multicultural state on earth and instead of celebrating that we...

...keep trying to copy nations who have very evidently done worse at it than us

Iran conflict: Oil soars 13% as Trump vows to continue striking Iran Traffic through Strait of Hormuz comes to standstill as Middle East conflict escalates

Oil up, dollar up, stock futures down as the Monday session gets underway in Asia-Pacific
www.ft.com/content/91ca...

I increasingly think Starmer will have to fire Mahmood for trying to implement his and McSweeney's strategy.

The right thing to do*, but also politically perilous (again) for his leadership. Oh what a tangled web.

* No I'm not expecting him to do the right thing.

That is certainly true.

Refugee status to be temporary as Shabana Mahmood rips up rules on UK asylum Home secretary announces 30-month protection limit, with refugees required to leave if their home countries are later judged safe

This stinks at every level. What refugees desperately need after their claims are accepted is the stability to rebuild their lives. This change will cause immeasurable stress and anxiety to some of the most vulnerable people in the country

The 30 months asylum stuff tonight is both abhorrent and politically insane.

I mean this was a bit…yet…

Mahmood’s long game where she disgusts so many Labour members that the only ones still standing will elect her leader seems to be going to plan.

Putting things like basic ethics aside...

... does anyone really believe that the Home Office, which cant deal with its present asylum responsibilities, is going to be able to review every application, every 30 months?

I have a bridge to sell you

Is it what you think? It’s not what I think. I doubt very much it’s what human rights lawyer Keir Starmer really thinks. It polls well? Jeez man - so did most of the Corbyn manifesto. That doesn’t mean they wanted *him* to do it!

If abandoning any realistic prospect of our neighbours, co-workers and family members truly integrating is “too woke” then god help us all what is the point of a centre left party?

(Were I a betting mad, going with the latter.)

The only question here is whether Starmer can be persuaded to realise this in the very near term, or opts - as usual - to u-turn at the point he’s maximally pissed everyone off.

Treasury plans depend on net migration being much higher than current policy will deliver or current Home Secretary willing to accept.

Something will have to give. Will Labour deliver tax rises and spending cuts just before an election to keep net imm close to zero? Or let imm rise to avert this?

Trump seems intent on stoking the inflation that so damaged Biden and returned him to the White House. No sooner had the Supreme Court handed Trump an - admittedly unwanted - deflationary lifeline by striking down much of his tariffs agenda than he rushes headlong to stoke crude prices.

Reform's London Mayoral candidate now running on "disenfranchise + deport" policy re Commowealth

Yusuf would strip Commonwealth ILR (but treat European settled status differently)

Farage to strip voting rights from Commonwealth non-citizens (Treat Irish foreign nationals differently to Asians)

Sorry, I really don’t mean to be rude but that’s a phalanx of straw men.

This awful immigration bill vs OPEN BORDERS is a ridiculous binary.

Keir Starmer is going to end up with his trademark u-turn here – where it becomes obvious to those paying attention it was entirely forced by backbenchers. So he gets no credit for the u-turn by people who wanted it, and attacked for dropping the policy by others.

I think the logical and likely response is that bourgeois supporters (who make up most Labour MPs, members and voters) will sacrifice Mahmood over migration.

Lucy Powell says the government's proposals om settlement proposals - doubling + tripling how long it takes those on a visa to be permanent or get citizenship - were unpopular, saying that ethnic minority voters who think border control does matter don't think the government's changes are fair

Also, a lot of this kind of crit assumes the reset would somehow require wholesale adoption of Green/far left positions, as opposed to - you know - just not seeming allergic to mainstream liberalism.

Also, bluntly, the Tories appealing to their base may have raised the salience of Reform’s attacks and hurt them but it’s not clear how deliberately seeking to kick your base in the nads while *also* raising salience of Reform’s line of attack can possibly work.