John West

UK should not back a war that boosts Vladimir Putin Rising energy prices inadvertently strengthen Russia and weaken incumbent European governments

Today's newsletter on the British political implications and policy consequences of Donald Trump's war with Iran.

This will surprise you but they are not good!

My deeply unpopular opinion is that Harris/Dems overperformed all the other “incumbents” & her campaign was just fine & mattered ~not one bit. It was “inflation” & racism/misogyny & misinformation that had absolutely nothing to do with her policies on Gaza or anything else.

bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Get ready to be annoyed when petrol prizes go up and a) a bunch of politicos declare the government's poll ratings have gone down because Starmer didn't go in with the US on Iran and b) a bunch of politicos who support the war blame the government for increased energy costs.

How will OpenAI compete? — Benedict Evans OpenAI has some big questions. It doesn’t have unique tech. It has a big user base, but with limited engagement and stickiness and no network effect. The incumbents have matched the tech and are lever...

'it’s interesting to compare how hard it was to differentiate a web browser with how hard it is today to differentiate a chatbot'
Fab piece from @thebenedictevans.bsky.social asking hard Qs of OpenAI when its tech is similar to other labs and has no network effects www.ben-evans.com/benedictevan...

GB News has never made a profit because it doesn’t exist to make a profit. It exists to exert pressure to push broadcast news channels further rightwards. It is about further poisoning the information environment. That’s why it exists.

This is pretty disgraceful.

The evidence base for comprehensive education is stronger than possibly any other area of public policy in the UK, yet right-wingers consistently refuse to believe it because of vibes

Honestly the contempt I feel for Dubai 'ex-pats' isn't based on class so much as their willingness to embrace a life of luxury and excess in a society propped up by slavery, exploitation and human rights abuse as though they were living in a JG Ballard novel they refuse to understand

I agree that’s what the sanguine market watchers think, I just don’t buy it. Venezuela was clearly a managed move (Delcy was in the back pocket). This is more Pandora’s box. bsky.app/profile/jwes...

Right. The problem is what does TACO even mean in this context? bsky.app/profile/jwes...

New grammar schools set to return if Farage becomes PM The creation of new selective schools was outlawed by New Labour in 1998

One reason why British politics seems to be stuck is that we keep reopening debates that were settled years ago. This is just the latest example inews.co.uk/news/politic...

Those first few responses got a chuckle out of me.

💯 bsky.app/profile/jwes...

Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch writes to the Prime Minister to say that tripling and quadrupling settlement times to 15 and 20 years "are a good start but should go further"

Settlement taking that long are very niche positions among the public - British Social Attitudes - but popular among elites

Take two 7 year olds in a primary school in PM's constituency.

His Dad is a banker
Her Mum is cleaner at that bank

Does he say Pascal Banque's son gets perm status at age 10 while in primary school & working class classmate Marie Cleaner not until 22 (consequence: international student fees)

Dressing up for world book day is bullshit, even leaving the parental finance stuff aside. It's one of very few 'event' days in school calenders set aside for a solo, quiet, activity – and then it's turned into dress-up. Spectacularly misses the point. Schools should drop it from a great height.

Your regular reminder than a large majority of voters - and overwhelming majority of Labour voters - favour giving settled migrants access to the welfare state after five years or less. The Home Secretary is not reforming rules in line with public opinion. She is doing the opposite.

After losing in court one can now safely mention that the Müller brand of milk products is owned by an AfD (Germany's officially declared "extreme right wing" party) supporting billionaire. Whose giant family relocated to Switzerland in 2003 btw, to avoid 30% inheritance tax when he passes.

Trump's off-ramp re. Iran is very unclear - which differentiates this episode from other shocks he's been responsible for. I covered this in my Mergermarket column this week (see below) and heartily recommend reading @explaintrade.com's thread and following him.

Doing this for the approval of a few broadsheet columnists and a bunch of imaginary voters who'll never vote for you anyway is terrible politics. There are no winners here.

Trump's off-ramp re. Iran is very unclear - which differentiates this episode from other shocks he's been responsible for. I covered this in my Mergermarket column this week (see below) and heartily recommend reading @explaintrade.com's thread and following him.

A tweet from the Daily Mail with a headline saying "Four biblical signs the world has entered the end of days as US bombs Iran

This perfectly illustrates my point that the British tabloids are aiming at a US audience. There like 5 people in the UK who think about this. But it is huge among US evangelicals.

British politicians need to ignore UK tabloids, as UK tabloids are talking to an audience in the US for clicks.

"Today’s OBR projections reveal two competing realities in government right now. The OBR and Treasury forecast an upturn in net migration, which makes their fiscal numbers add up – while the Home Office says it is determined to drive net migration down still further. They can’t have it both ways".

'Separatism' is when British Muslims vote for the most socially liberal candidate in the race to stop Matt Goodwin, who Kemi Badenoch herself explicitly said was a threat to minority life in this country, becoming an MP.

As the laid off Middle East News Editor, I concur. Management eliminated the positions of every single staff correspondent and bureau chief in the Middle East.

Screenshot of a post from Arin Dube outlining that the market prices in TACO, meaning Trump’s extremes have to be more extreme for markets to get worried enough for Trump to have to TACO.

Great, as ever. Reminded of @arindube.bsky.social’s excellent TACO cycle post.

Its genuinely mad that we are, arguably, the most successful multicultural state on earth and instead of celebrating that we...

...keep trying to copy nations who have very evidently done worse at it than us

Iran conflict: Oil soars 13% as Trump vows to continue striking Iran Traffic through Strait of Hormuz comes to standstill as Middle East conflict escalates

Oil up, dollar up, stock futures down as the Monday session gets underway in Asia-Pacific
www.ft.com/content/91ca...

I increasingly think Starmer will have to fire Mahmood for trying to implement his and McSweeney's strategy.

The right thing to do*, but also politically perilous (again) for his leadership. Oh what a tangled web.

* No I'm not expecting him to do the right thing.

That is certainly true.