Bob Elliott

Deleveragings and war have a momentum of their own.

The deleveraging so far will feel like a walk in the park compared to things if the flood of vol sellers get spooked.

The Kindling of High Expectations

While it will be a while before we know how big a deal the current conflict turns out to be, such elevated expectations coming in create unusually heightened risks if things do turn south.

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Reminder that the most diversifying assets to add to a traditional 60/40 portfolio are 1) gold, 2) commodities and 3) low cost hedge fund strategies. Most investors hold none.

Today is a good reminder that most of you don't hold enough gold in your long-term savings portfolio.

All In On A Swift Peace

60/40 savers face losses in stocks and bonds & higher oil prices today - the worst combo for their savings portfolios. Without any gold or oil holdings, a protracted conflict is a nightmare scenario.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/all-in-on-...

Gold fading back toward the Friday close from a peak early this AM around 5450. While the token market is a bit thin, its another indication of the initial consensus view that the conflict is likely to be transitory.

An Ostrich Approaches War Risk

The overwhelming consensus is that any conflict will be short-lived, with nearly all investors underweight assets that benefit from an extended war environment and modest market moves so far.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/an-ostrich...

Japan’s Easy Money Set To Stay

Japan’s inflation is slipping below target and growth is barely positive, undercutting the case for more BoJ hikes. Easy money looks set to persist on the data and Takaichi is going to make it happen.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/japans-eas...

Some signs of productivity improvement in several sensitive AI sectors. One of the questions is whether this dynamic is leading or will does it suggest a reallocation of labor toward lower productivity sectors keep overall gains more muted at the economy level.

One of the most important global macro charts, which few are talking about.

Earning Into It

After years of multiple expansion, stocks are holding steady while earnings keep powering ahead. With double-digit profit growth, valuations may reset the old-fashioned way, growing into them.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/earning-in...

Better growth than what we have seen in some time. Guess we shouldn't tell the bond market...

Economic Conditions | Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2026 Economic Conditions | Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2026

For all you macro nerds out there, the RBA economic conditions report has to be the best publicly available overview from a central bank in the world. There is no reason the Fed can't do the same. Instead we have to deal with a mess of governor opinions...

www.rba.gov.au/publications...

Australia’s Hotter Economy Largely Priced In

After a nonconsensus call last summer that Aussie markets were underpricing coming economic strength, STIR, bond, and currency markets have now significantly reflected the antipodean's divergence.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...

Excited to join Cameron Dawson, Jeffrey Sherman and Tom Keene at the CFA Society Phoenix 20th Annual Market Forecast Dinner next Tuesday. If you are coming let me know and we can meet up!

The Broad Based Dissaving Economy

HH, biz and the US government are all set to reduce their savings and borrow more in ‘26. While doomers fear of debt problems coming some day, in the near-term it's set to lift growth and profits.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-broad-...

Sticking illiquid equity into an ETF creates significant unexpected risk to ETF holders if the event of redemptions and needed liquidation. A closed-end fund is a far better way to hold private shares balancing liquidity while limiting risk of forced liquidation.

www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

Maybe most published academic research in finance is just data mining.

The Section 122 tariffs at 15% replaced most of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by SCOTUS. Seems like there is little consensus on where it'll end up by year end.

x.com/BobEUnlimite...

Can The Dissaving Driven Expansion Hold Up?

‘25 saw the weakest HH demand in some time as wages and spending slowed and price hikes ate into real spending power, raising questions about whether the dissaving driven expansion can keep going.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/can-the-di...

No, you don't need more concentrated equity risk in your portfolio. You need more diversification without giving up expected return. Higher vol alternative strategies can do just that.

www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

The simple reason why household spending and therefore GDP have remained strong despite the weakness in the labor market is that households have increasingly dissaved. Continued growth at these rates require either better labor markets or and even faster pace of dissaving.

10% blanket tariff is a 'closet tariff cut', says Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli Bob Elliott, Unlimited CIO, and Adam Crisafulli, Vital Knowledge founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime'  with reaction to today's tariff ruling and the White House's reaction.

Too much focus on the internal profit split between software, hardware, and real economy companies and not enough focus on the continued overall economic strength and building supports ahead (inc. globally). On CNBC Overtime with Michael Santoli.

www.cnbc.com/video/2026/0...

The core of the economy has also remained pretty steady on a real basis over the last few years too.

When you look through all the volatility in the GDP calc related to tariffs and the government shutdown, nominal growth has been pretty steady for the last several years.

Steady Eddie Foreign Investment A look at the actual foreign investment into the US challenges both partisans' narratives. Most categories have remained pretty steady over the last year, with a slight uptick in buying US stocks.

There are a lot of false claims about what is happening with foreign investment from partisans and doomers. This week's blog app piece free on just that topic:

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/steady-edd...

Swinging by CNBC Overtime just after 4pm ET. New location here at NASDAQ. Check it out!

A lot of the premise for a strong first half of 1H26 is that tax refunds will be much stronger. So far not seeing that, though earlier filers tend to be lower income cohorts / less complicated which likely benefit less from OBBB than others.

Nadeem’s Macro Hedge Fund Deem Closing to New Cash at $3 Billion Asfandyar Nadeem is closing his macro hedge fund firm to new cash, joining a raft of peers who have been shutting the doors on clients to help manage their size.

If only there was a way to access global macro hedge fund returns in a way that had no issues with capacity, no lockups, and lower fees...

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...