Bob Elliott

For folks waking up on the other side of the world, swinging by CNBC international just after the top of the hour. Check it out!

Managed futures is once again proving compelling value during turbulent times and yet these strategies represent <0.05% of total ETF AUM.

G7 idea to release 300-400mln bbl would plug the gap of about 15-20 days of Persian Gulf supply constraint. After that Hormuz will need to be open to keep oil price rises in check.

www.ft.com/content/e114...

The Oil Shock’s Limited Ripples

Most market reactions have been pretty subdued despite one of the largest oil shocks in history in recent days. It seems the consensus remains confident the impact will be… dare I say it.. transitory.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-oil-sh...

In contrast, not seeing much price pressure in the gold market despite the escalating conflict in the gold-backed token market. Both XAUt and PAXG trading flat for most of the weekend.

Also seeing Saudi Aramco trading up about 4% to start the week.

Looks like we are likely getting some further lift in oil prices to start the week given the developments over the weekend. US crude trading up a couple bucks from Friday close in weekend trading markets, which are of course thin but indicative.

Short-term breakevens have risen about 50bps since the December lows in oil, reflecting the higher inflation environment as a result of the oil price rises we've seen this year. h/t @augurinfinity

Important to remember that while rising oil prices are a drag for consumer, the US economy is much less sensitive than in the past given consumers the reduced role in consumption and the fact the US is now a major producer (which supports incomes).

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/not-your-f...

Savings Rate Limbo

Household spending keeps powering ahead well above more subdued income growth, financed by simply saving less than in the past. The biggest macro question for the US these days is how low can it go?

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Oil is up about 40% since December. If it stays up here, that'll add ~100bps to headline and ~20bps to core. More importantly, it will eat into household's real spending power. It's a drag roughly enough to fully offset the positive OBBB benefits in '26.

Gold is the most crowded trade that no one actually holds...

Our healthcare benefits costs were just quoted up 19% vs last year.

Where is all this disinflation folks are talking about?

Improving Labor Market, But Not A Strong One

US labor data is gradually improving but still too soft to boost wage growth. With income growth subdued, the expansion remains dependent on fragility of household dissaving to keep spending going.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/improving-...

The Reversal Ain't So Bad

While the moves down across many global assets feel quite large up close, the reality is that those investors who diversified away from US stocks to kick off ‘26 are still well in the black.

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Deleveragings and war have a momentum of their own.

The deleveraging so far will feel like a walk in the park compared to things if the flood of vol sellers get spooked.

The Kindling of High Expectations

While it will be a while before we know how big a deal the current conflict turns out to be, such elevated expectations coming in create unusually heightened risks if things do turn south.

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

Reminder that the most diversifying assets to add to a traditional 60/40 portfolio are 1) gold, 2) commodities and 3) low cost hedge fund strategies. Most investors hold none.

Today is a good reminder that most of you don't hold enough gold in your long-term savings portfolio.

All In On A Swift Peace

60/40 savers face losses in stocks and bonds & higher oil prices today - the worst combo for their savings portfolios. Without any gold or oil holdings, a protracted conflict is a nightmare scenario.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/all-in-on-...

Gold fading back toward the Friday close from a peak early this AM around 5450. While the token market is a bit thin, its another indication of the initial consensus view that the conflict is likely to be transitory.

An Ostrich Approaches War Risk

The overwhelming consensus is that any conflict will be short-lived, with nearly all investors underweight assets that benefit from an extended war environment and modest market moves so far.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/an-ostrich...

Japan’s Easy Money Set To Stay

Japan’s inflation is slipping below target and growth is barely positive, undercutting the case for more BoJ hikes. Easy money looks set to persist on the data and Takaichi is going to make it happen.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/japans-eas...

Some signs of productivity improvement in several sensitive AI sectors. One of the questions is whether this dynamic is leading or will does it suggest a reallocation of labor toward lower productivity sectors keep overall gains more muted at the economy level.

One of the most important global macro charts, which few are talking about.

Earning Into It

After years of multiple expansion, stocks are holding steady while earnings keep powering ahead. With double-digit profit growth, valuations may reset the old-fashioned way, growing into them.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/earning-in...

Better growth than what we have seen in some time. Guess we shouldn't tell the bond market...

Economic Conditions | Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2026 Economic Conditions | Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2026

For all you macro nerds out there, the RBA economic conditions report has to be the best publicly available overview from a central bank in the world. There is no reason the Fed can't do the same. Instead we have to deal with a mess of governor opinions...

www.rba.gov.au/publications...

Australia’s Hotter Economy Largely Priced In

After a nonconsensus call last summer that Aussie markets were underpricing coming economic strength, STIR, bond, and currency markets have now significantly reflected the antipodean's divergence.

bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/australias...