Tom Carnduff

Junior Firpo's 24/25 Sky Bet Championship season...

▪️ Starts: 30
▪️ Assists: 10
▪️ Goals: 4
▪️ Chances created: 48

Champion. 🏆🥇

Lukas Nmecha's recent injury record is a concern but he was available for Wolfsburg's final eight games of last season. Worth a go on a free transfer as Leeds look to replace Mateo Joseph/Patrick Bamford. His form in 2021/22 was good - big question is around staying fit.

It's been an injury-hit couple of seasons for Lukas Nmecha (made 22 Bundesliga appearances - 3 starts) but has demonstrated a clear preference in the areas he looks to score from. Shot map from the past two seasons showing a clear pattern 👇

Leeds-linked Jaka Bijol and how his aerial numbers compared to last season's centre-back options (aerial duels won per 90):

▪️ Pascal Struijk - 3.64
▪️ Jaka Bijol - 3.34
▪️ Joe Rodon - 2.65
▪️ Ethan Ampadu - 2.4

Finding pride among the pain for EFL play-off final losers Having spent the weekend at Wembley, it's taken me around 24 hours to digest exactly what I witnessed.

On this weekend’s three play-off finals. We can’t escape the obsession with the outcome of one game but we shouldn’t forget the nine months which preceded it.

I do think the 'best' thing that could have happened for Sheff Utd if they weren't to achieve automatics was to lose it with a couple of weeks to spare. Bit of time to regroup and go again.

And so, we move onto the play-offs.

Teams who finish 3rd in the Championship have reached the final in 80% of the previous 20 seasons (16/20), with 45% (9/20) securing promotion.

The final two home games of the season delivered:

✅ 6-0 and 4-0 wins
⚽️ 10 goals
🎯 23 shots on target
📝 40 shots

After the 1-1 draw with Luton, Leeds looked like they'd lost their spark. One win in six at that stage and struggling to create anything (they had eight shots that day).

Fair to say, I really didn't expect the six which followed:

✅ Six wins
⚽️ 16 goals
🏆 18 points

Joël Piroe wins the Sky Bet Championship's Golden Boot with 19 goals.

Really consistent with where he scores when hitting the target... 🎯

And look at that after half-time for Leeds.

The 25 shots attempted was the second-highest of their Championship title-winning season (most was 29 in the 7-0 win over Cardiff).

Also the 14th occasion they posted at least 20 shots.

Can you tell Bradford needed a goal to be promoted?

a group of people standing on top of a soccer field with the word no written on the ground . ALT: a group of people standing on top of a soccer field with the word no written on the ground .

Just walked into a bar where people are queuing to order a drink.

Oh and Ethan Ampadu attempted a ridiculous 164 passes in Leeds' 4-0 win over Bristol City, successfully completing 157 of 'em.

A season-high five chances created by Ilia Gruev as Leeds beat Bristol City 4-0 on Monday - that included an assist on Largie Ramazani's second goal of the night.

‘Scarf on seat game’ at the end of the season which didn’t have huge pressure on it. That was nice.

A total of 89 goals in 44 games for Leeds en route to promotion from an expected goals (xG) tally of 84.57.

And here's where they placed every one of 'em.

The final day of the Championship season will see Jack Wilshere's Norwich City facing Aaron Ramsey's Cardiff City. How very Football Manager.

⚽️ Joel Piroe is now two clear in the Championship's top goalscorer charts (19).

Implied probability in the odds on being the top scorer:
▪️ August 11 - 5.9%
▪️ September 27 - 3.8%
▪️ January 1 - 9.1%
▪️ February 24 - 42.1%
▪️ Pre-Stoke yesterday - 12.5%
▪️ Post-Stoke - 85.7%

And for Burnley...

The implied probability of promotion at opening was 30.8%.

Hit 50% after two big wins to start the season.

Dropped to 28.6% at the end of October.

Jumped to 69.2% in mid-January.

Back to 50% in mid-February.

Rocketed in such a short space of time in April.

When Leeds were beaten in the play-off final at Wembley, the implied probability of promotion in 24/25 was 34.8%.

It stood at 52.4% after two opening draws.

Up to 94.1% after three wins over Christmas.

At 97.1% after a 7-0 win over Cardiff.

Dropped to 81.8% just 17 days ago.

From 34.8% after defeat in the play-off final to 99% following Friday's win over Oxford.

Here's Leeds' season through the bookmakers' implied probability for promotion.

A goal for Junior Firpo in Leeds' 6-0 win over Stoke but he created four chances for teammates too.

I think it could be a 13-0er (Newcastle beating Newport) in 1946 so they've got some work to do to break that.

I didn't expect to be posting this today but...

The record score in the Championship is 8-0 (Wigan 8-0 Hull in July 2020; Birmingham 0-8 Bournemouth in October 2014).

Joel Piroe has a hat-trick just 20 minutes into Leeds vs Stoke.

Who thought this was a good idea then? The running of that club seems mad.

Now That’s What I Call Bundesliga!

Derby dire in that first half but should have grabbed an equaliser in the second. Massive win for Luton to keep it a thrilling relegation battle to watch unfold. Six/seven teams still very vulnerable.