Giantgooner

What will angel have to say???

It’s a shame he’s not talking about Iran’s WMDs. You know, for the “to use the original German” vibes

This tells you everything you need to know about Trump’s willingness to take this fight to the mattress

I’ve done a fair bit of reading (augmented by a really snazzy in house AI tool, but I read primary reports myself as well) and I’m confident this is weeks-not-months, it’s 100% consistent across the different research houses and they understand the mechanics of how the system works

Deeply unpleasant stuff and unsurprising, but those people don’t decide what happens

Counterpoint - the two weeks a year where I have a 4 hour gap to London rather than 5 are the two best weeks of the year for me as someone who needs to care about what happens starting 8 AM London time during the work week

This has been a helpful exchange for me. I am going to dive deeper on this - if obviously affects my day job - and I’ll get back to you with a more thoughtful answer

I think it’s more likely to be “stagflation talk” than “actual stagflation” cause you’ll eventually get the economic accelerant of oil prices coming down once Hormuz reopens/once the downstream oil refinery ecosystem returns to normal

A very tricky question. As you say, oil refineries and LNG liquefaction facilities are not designed to be easily turned off and back on. But they are regularly maintained through multi-week shutdowns where maintenance is done and then they’re ramped back up. Takes a few weeks is my sense

Too late, Allardici is already gonna run Italy. We’re in for the Utter Woke Nonsense guy

Oh yeah, I’m talking exclusively about markets. Not that I’m some great expert on foreign policy, but for me Trump 2 has blown up any possibility of going back to status quo ante. And that’s bad imo. But it’s outside my expertise and I’m trying to stay in my lane

I put 0 weight on that branch of the decision tree. Even in these fucked up times I don’t see any chance of that happening. And here’s hoping I’m right, cause if I’m not then whoooooo boy things are gonna get ugly

Yep, and add in “asset prices fall (fear of higher rates due to inflation) and high income consumers pull back” alongside “oil price shock causes low income consumers to pull back” and you get stagflation talk.

Except the economic problem goes away when Hormuz reopens

For the avoidance of doubt none of the above constitutes me “supporting him” or “agreeing with him.” I’d be much happier if he died of a heart attack today. But I have to predict his next move, it’s my job.

That’s what the folks who were selling at the bottom of the tariff freakout were saying. He escalates until he reverses course.

That’s risk that markets have grown comfortable with cause we’ve seen the pattern enough times. When he’s actually staring down the barrel of blowing up markets he backs off. Perhaps we’ll be wrong this time, but I’m prepared to make the bet that Trump is still Trump, for better and for worse

So your concern is that Trump might nuke Iran?

“Stick to your plan” is time tested advice for good reasons. Whatever you’ve been doing, don’t switch it up now

Expand on this. Right now the US and Israel are, for some incredibly stupid reason, bombing the shit out of Iran. Iran has responded by attacking its neighbors. Who’s gonna escalate this to nuclear war?

Which, to be fair, is somewhat the OP’s fault. Cause I can’t see a way this turns into Lehman unless Iran has a nuke or 5 that we don’t know about

In classic Bluesky tradition, the replies to this are almost all people who know nothing about markets in disbelief that “markets” aren’t just “a number reflecting how angry they are at Trump today”

I really strongly disagree with this. Why add a subjective component? That opens the door to all kinds of ref fuckery. Just leave it black or white

Wouldn’t be the end of the world

I honestly don’t think the rule is stupid. Marginal decisions are inevitable but fun when they go your way, eg Gabriel vs United

I never get people moaning about VAR for offside (other than when it’s slow.) Offside is one of the few rules of football that’s truly black and white, and enforcing it as such is the right thing to do

I trust a well read man like you has finished A Gentleman in Moscow?