Rafael Loss

With America’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to US extended nuclear deterrence.

In this context, French president Emmanuel Macron’s address on nuclear deterrence, which is due to take place on Monday, is sure to draw particular scrutiny.

My latest for @ecfr.eu 👇

Franco-German Cooperation on Nuclear Deterrence Needs to Start Now The nuclear question is the key one for European defense integration. The good news is that the Europeans seem ready to tackle it.

And for a bilateral Franco-German angle, see @shahinvallee.bsky.social, @josephdeweck.bsky.social, Elias Ricken, and Jacob Ross for @ipq.bsky.social:

Franco-German Cooperation on Nuclear Deterrence Needs to Start Now ip-quarterly.com/en/franco-ge...

With America’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to US extended nuclear deterrence.

In this context, French president Emmanuel Macron’s address on nuclear deterrence, which is due to take place on Monday, is sure to draw particular scrutiny.

My latest for @ecfr.eu 👇

New Reuters: Russia "fired the 9M729 at Ukraine twice in 2022 and 23 times between August and October last year,

… fired at least four more of the missiles at Ukraine on February 17 [2026], …

There have been other uses since October too".

www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Suspicious minds: Why Europeans are considering their post-America nuclear options – European Council on Foreign Relations With America’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to US extended nuclear deterrence. Leaders should find confidence in electorate suppo

Suspicious minds: Why Europeans are considering their post-America nuclear options ecfr.eu/article/susp...

Suspicious minds: Why Europeans are considering their post-America nuclear options – European Council on Foreign Relations With America’s credibility eroding, Europeans are looking for alternatives to US extended nuclear deterrence. Leaders should find confidence in electorate suppo

Suspicious minds: Why Europeans are considering their post-America nuclear options ecfr.eu/article/susp...

The ticking clock: Why NATO’s deterrence against Russia is under pressure – European Council on Foreign Relations Putin has long wanted to extract concessions from NATO. The three factors deterring Russia from an attack—a war in Ukraine, military capacity, and NATO strength

Putin has long wanted to extract concessions from NATO. The three factors deterring Russia from an attack—a war in Ukraine, military capacity, and NATO strength—are under unprecedented strain, write @menkiszakm.bsky.social and @mprochwicz.bsky.social

👉Full text: https://bit.ly/4aRstCO

Them’s the rules, yes.

A German General Prepares His Country for War—and the Clock Is Ticking Could Russia launch a war across Europe? The Germans aren’t waiting to find out.

Nice tribute to Germany's military chief in the @wsj.com. We're lucky to have allies like Germany.

This episode of @markhleonard.bsky.social's World in 30 Minutes podcast features a live recording of a conversation with US undersecretary of war for policy, Elbridge Colby, which took place during the Munich Security Conference 2026.

ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi... @ecfr.eu

Running to Stand Still: Russian Nuclear Modernization after New START John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones,” an apt depiction of the current discourse

"There is a school of thought that assumes an arms race will ensue any time the US does something with its arsenal [...] but changes to US forces are unlikely to engender a major departure from the current path of Russian force modernization."

warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...

After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order – European Council on Foreign Relations As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although

The liberal, rules-based international order has served Europe well, but clinging to it risks marginalisation.

What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇

After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social

Sachstand zur geplanten Stationierung US-amerikanischer weitreichender Waffensysteme in Deutschland

Regierungspressekonferenz vom 11. Februar 2026 www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktu...

"Man [suche] für Litauen Freiwillige für 1.971 Dienstposten, bisher aber hätten sich [...] nur 'rund 10%' der nötigen Freiwilligen gemeldet."

Die Fantasie, unattraktive Teile des Soldaten-Dienstes nicht als Teil des Jobs, sondern als gut vergütetes Zusatz-Engagement zu verkaufen, ist gescheitert.

NATO’s Military Committee confirms www.nato.int/en/news-and-...

“It's also staff mass, specialist depth, C2, secure comms, deployable capability, etc” — for sure!

But that’s less of a UK/Italy-specific problem than a challenge for the whole “European-led NATO” effort — hugely challenging but urgently necessary.

Italian generals have previously led JFC Brunssum and British admirals have been in charge at MARCOM for some time—there are capable officers in both nations’ and other European armed forces.

POLITICO reports that the US is looking to back out of several NATO commands: UK to lead NATO’s Joint Force Command in Norfolk, Va. and Italy to staff JFC Naples. Both are currently led by US officers. (US takes MARCOM instead.) subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2026...

Called for this last Oct 👇

YouTube video by Reuters LIVE: US arms control official delivers disarmament statement in Geneva

At the Conference on Disarmament today, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security (T) Thomas Di Nanno hinted at the expansion of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and accused China of conducting a low-yield nuclear test in 2020.

“Russia … may have exceeded the deployed warhead limit … during portions of 2024. Therefore, this constitutes a serious compliance concern.” 2021-2025.state.gov/2024-report-...

You can’t in good faith agree to continue to observe limits which you didn’t observe in the first place.

Good.

The U.S. and Russian Federation agreed to reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue www.eucom.mil/pressrelease...

Germany's Armoured Brigade 45 assumed command of NATO's Multinational Battlegroup Lithuania. The brigade's two other battalions were formally assigned last week; they will arrive in Lithuania by the end of 2027.

For context and outlook, see: ecfr.eu/article/blue... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social

Freue mich sehr auf diesen Abend. Die Böll-Stiftung hat mich eingeladen, mein Buch vorzustellen. @annakatrein.bsky.social hat eingewilligt, mit mir dort darüber zu sprechen. Großes Danke an beide! Alle sind sehr herzlich eingeladen. 👇👇👇

❤️

The European Investment Bank Group Activity Report 2025 www.eib.org/files/public...

Screenshot of a paragraph from the European Investment Bank's 2025 Activity Report. It reads: "Securing Europe’s Eastern Flank: Military infrastructure in Lithuania. The EIB is providing financing equivalent to more than 1% of Lithuania’s GDP to reinforce the country’s military capacity, including investments of €540 million and advisory support for a military base close to the Lithuania-Belarus border. It will host a German brigade, strengthening the rapid-response capabilities of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the region.

In 2022, I proposed a PESCO project on "military permanence" with associated funding to support front-line states in creating the necessary infrastructure for growing forward formations: ecfr.eu/article/stay...

... but I take EIB money, too :)

h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social

Only this week:
🇸🇪Swedish PM confirms talks on nuclear deterrence with France, UK
🇩🇪German chancellor confirms early discussions about a European nuclear deterrent
🇳🇱Dutch coalition agreement pledges to “take a constructive stance on strengthening a European nuclear deterrent”
What a time to be alive!

Map of the northern hemisphere depicting possible flight paths of Russian ballistic and cruise missiles across the Arctic to targets in the continental United States.

Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic ecfr.eu/article/nuuk...

The standoff over Greenland strained alliance relations: but using NATO to improve cooperation and counter Russian nuclear coercion could be a silver lining to this episode, I argue.