Eoghan Kelly

Most Reform members believe non-white UK citizens born abroad should be forced or encouraged to leave, poll finds Nigel Farage’s recent efforts to woo centre-ground voters may cause tension in party’s right flank, says Hope Not Hate

Personally, I'd have gone with the fact that "one in five (22%) also supported it for non-white citizens whose parents were born in the UK" for the headline. 😱

We have a new system almost ready to go which accounts for the fact that a lot of Green voters won't have a Green candidate on the ballot.

We'll launch it once the Greens confirm which seats they're contesting. If anyone has the list please send it over!

People are welcome to make projections based on whatever method they like.

But, the entirely unsurprising claim that 25% of Labour voters prefer the SNP to Reform does not mean they will go out and vote for the SNP in places Reform have never stood a candidate!

The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...

For those interested in devolution and public policy disasters, this is an interesting paper on the 'cash for ash' scandal, the RHI inquiry and what the crisis and the response to the inquiry tells us about Northern Ireland's governance #devolution #stormont

Scotland is about to demonstrate how badly FPTP performs when you through a load of parties at it, fortunately the regional list will mask it a bit.

At Westminster there is no List to hide the absurdity of these results.

Table showing results in tweet

Parliament showing results in tweet, SNP-Green needed for a majority

Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk.bsky.social poll for May's Scottish Parliament election:

🎗️ SNP — 57
🌹 Lab — 18
🌳 Con — 12
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 12
➡️ Ref — 20
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪Other — 0

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives This article examines the progress made in reforming the Northern Ireland Civil Service in the wake of the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal and resulting inquiry. It uses Northern Ireland Audit Off...

Delighted to see my new article, co-authored with @eoghanly.bsky.social and @muirismac.bsky.social, published today!

Title: 'The legacy of ‘cash for ash’ in Northern Ireland: instrumental, cultural, and myth perspectives'

Read it open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Table showing same results as in tweet. Gallagher Index of 6.54 (Medium) and Effective Number of Parties of 3.73 (High).

Parliament chart showing distribution of seats. Lib Dems decide if left or right gain majority.

Our projection for May's Senedd election based on the latest More in Common poll:

➡️ Ref — 37
🌼 PC — 25
🌹 Lab — 19
🌳 Con — 10
🐤 LD — 3
🌱 GP — 2

From devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Try it for yourself!

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

www.thenational.scot/news/2583446...

Parliament chart showing seats as stated in tweet.

Table showing seats as stated in tweet.

An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll

☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1

From irishelections.ie/general

Parliament of results

Our Projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk poll for May's Holyrood election
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 17
🌱 GP — 12
🌳 Con — 9
🐤 LD — 9

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

Oh wow. Trump got a hand-me-down Nobel Peace Prize! Did you know:

It would not be the first time a Nobel laureate has given his or her medal away: in 1943 Nobel Literature laureate Knut Hamsun gave his medal to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.

I'll follow up.

A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social

🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

To be fair, Reform's record of picking Welsh and Scottish leaders is questionable.

One resigned after being the admin of a racist facebook page, the other was a bought-and-paid-for Russian asset.

But this just makes all the more important that voters know who they're voting for as First Minisiter.

If any other party decided not to appoint a leader for an election they could win it would be a scandal. And Reform are tied for first in our Welsh projection.

Reform may even boycott Leader's Debates rather make a decision.

devolvedelections.co.uk

Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for London Mayor, new survey reveals EXCLUSIVE: Sir Sadiq Khan’s party is on 32%, the Conservatives 20%, Reform 19%, the Greens 13% and Liberal Democrats 11%

It is very on-brand for Reform to announce their 2028 London Mayoral candidate before either their 2026 Senedd leader or 2026 Holyrood leader.

Priorities.

www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

I believe they will be up tomorrow.

A case of continuity and change: Lab/Green/LD majority but Reform taking seats directly from the Conservatives.

Bexley & Bromley being Reform's most likely seat.

The Greens best bet is North East (Hackney, Islington & Waltham Forest) but that's a long shot

We polled for both the Mayor and the Assembly

According to my DevolvedElections Model the Assembly could be:

Lab — 11 Seats
Con — 4
Ref — 4
Greens — 4
LD — 2
Ind/Other — 0

devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

@devolvedelections.bsky.social

Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for London Mayor, new survey reveals EXCLUSIVE: Sir Sadiq Khan’s party is on 32%, the Conservatives 20%, Reform 19%, the Greens 13% and Liberal Democrats 11%

Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for Mayor of London, new survey reveals

@mileendinstitute.bsky.social
@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy

www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

👀

Labour hits record low in London with Tories 4th behind Greens and Reform, new poll EXCLUSIVE: Just 31% of Londoners now say they would vote for Sir Keir Starmer’s party, according to a Savanta survey, down from 43% at the 2024 General Election

Our latest Mile End Institute/Savanta London Poll is out!

Labour - 31%
Reform - 19%
Greens - 18%
Cons - 17%
LD - 13%

@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social

www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...

Exactly this.

Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.

Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1

Westminster had over 40.

When simulated 1000x the closest constituencies are:

Dumfriesshire,
Edinburgh Central,
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs,
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire,
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, and,
Argyll and Bute

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...

A projection based on the latest @irishinstitute.bsky.social for the next NI Assembly election:
☘️ SF — 25
🦁 DUP — 20
🤝 AP — 16
🔷 UUP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌹 SDLP — 6
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1

devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

A projection on that shock @cardiffuni.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll

🌼 PC — 39
➡️ Ref — 37
🌹 Lab — 6
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?

The UCL Constitution Unit has an excellent briefing series on UK politics that is perfect for students of all ages and levels. The latest release includes a briefing on #NorthernIreland, which I co-authored.

Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo...

@conunitucl.bsky.social

We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.

We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.

It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.

We'll update it regularly to show changes.

👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects