Eoghan Kelly

We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!

Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.

irishelections.ie/presidential/

We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!

It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.

Just click it again for a different scenario.

devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...

We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.

DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38

devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...

Irish Election Projections Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie:

🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1

irishelections.ie/general/

The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:

🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

It's largely a hangover from the previous two party system.

Labour never fully replace the Liberals as the main challenger to the Tories in some of the more rural and remote areas.

Our first Nowcast:

🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 43
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
🌹 Labour — 11
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2

From @irishelection.bsky.social

Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.

Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.

Congrats!

💥 The Government has just published its proposals for electoral reforms

💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."

We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear.

It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.

British government must ensure 16 and 17 year olds can vote in 2027 elections - Baker - Sinn Féin Sinn Féin MLA Danny Baker has welcomed news that the British government is to extend the right to vote to 16 and 17-year-olds. The party’s spokesperson for children and young people said: “Empowering ...

We don't put much faith in avowed intentions over here.

Alliance and Sinn Féin are the only two parties to tweet about it and neither knows if it applies to the Assembly.

sinnfein.ie/news/british...

www.allianceparty.org/votes_at_16_...

Also, whoever wrote this obviously never tried to use one to get into a pub in Enniskillen.

That was my reading of it too, but they don't expressly say they're changing it and I haven't seen any NI parties or media mention the change.

“The point about PR isn't that it favours one party or another. In the unlikely event that most people choose a populist party we'd get a populist government. What PR will not do - and FPTP very much would - is to hand 100% government control to a party that most people voted against” Andy Beck MVM

Our projection of the latest Beaufort Research's Senedd poll for @nation.cymru :
Lab — 30 Seats
Ref — 29
PC — 22
Con — 10
LD — 2
GP — 3

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

If this happened in any other part of the UK or the island of Ireland, people would rightfully go to prison for it.

The formation of the NI Executive is one of NI's oddest quirks.

This obeys all the rules - and there a lot of them - to make it easy to understand and accurate.

Wales:

Down 17% and 23 seats.

They're now in third, behind both Plaid Cymru & Reform.

Plaid have almost doubled their vote share (14->27%), Reform are up 10%

2024 was bad for the Tories, but its only gotten worse (18->13%).

Scotland:
Down 15% and 32 seats, dropping from first to second

The Greens, SNP and Reform have eaten into their support, hile the Tories have stayed flat.

1 year ago today Labour swept to power. They won a huge majority of seats with an unremarkable share

I've put last year's results into our projection to see how Labour *could* have done if GE24 results had played out at the devolved tier in Scotland & Wales vs how they're doing now

It's not pretty

Local elections 2025: aggregate-level correlations | Created with Datawrapper Pearson correlation coefficients between aggregate-level census data and the 2025 local election vote share of each party, for the electoral ward or County Electoral District.

Who wants to see how 81 different census variables correlate with this May's local election results? Of course you do:

www.datawrapper.de/_/avuui/?v=4

Officially a Doctor of Politics for my work looking at how devolved elections have impacted party systems in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Map of Scottish constituencies uunder latest poll

New Ipsos Poll for ‪@stv.news‬

SNP — 57 Seats
Lab — 25
GP — 16
Ref — 16
Con — 8
LD — 7
Alba — 0

Conservatives in 5th with just 1 constituency seat.

🚨 Our Coalition Builder tool is now live for Scottish and Welsh projections! 🗳️

Ever wondered what party alliances could form after an election? Now you can experiment with different outcomes, test majorities, and see how the numbers stack up — all with a few clicks. ✨

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

My husband knows the politics 🗳️
I write the code 💻
Together we built a site to make devolved elections easier to understand. ✨
Here's what I learned building civic tech without being an expert:
🔗 devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/civic-t... 💡

#elections #devolution #politics #uk

Devolved Elections - Devolved Parliament Projection Tool Create and share your own Devolved Parliament election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!

Our new London Assembly projection tool is live!
Play with the numbers, explore the seats, and see who’s on track to run the show in 2028 (yes, we're a bit early).

Go on, have a poke around 👉 devolvedelections.co.uk/london/

New visual for Scotland! 📊 — you can now see the order of Regional seats in our Scottish projections. Our latest Nowcast has the Tories down to just 1 seat in Glasgow.

www.devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/

You can now see D'Hondt seat allocation for every Senedd constituency!

The last two seats in Caerdydd Penarth are on a Knife edge between Plaid Cymru, Tories and Greens according to our Nowcast.

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/

No problem, I'll try to make it cleaer without making it longer