Karen Cutter

And we have had an awful year for influenza this year

I would also note that in Australia, the vast majority of people who are sick enough to die from Covid would be tested

Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Nov 2025 Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality

I’m no longer on the committee that produces this material, so no, I don’t. You can find all the data on the ABS website. Here is a link to latest: www.abs.gov.au/statistics/h...

Link to analysis here: www.actuaries.asn.au/research-ana...

That graph is quite old (only to May24). Here is updated graph, and it shows that the experience in early 2024 was a one-off. Lulls are not increasing

The Actuaries Institute of Australia recently published our review of mortality in 2024, which you can find here. content.actuaries.asn.au/resources/re.... A quick summary of our major conclusions #thread.

And here is a link to and article covering excess mortality for first 8 months of 2025

www.actuaries.asn.au/research-ana...

The above thread summarizes a very detailed report covering to the end of 2024.

bsky.app/profile/actu...

I left the actuaries institute group that was monitoring excess deaths about a year ago, but the group is still going. I’ll find a link for you.

No biggie, but I thought the other Karen might appreciate it

You tagged the wrong Karen…

Happy international actuaries day to all my actuarial friends!

The Mortality Working Group of the Actuaries Institute (Australia) has just released our analysis of mortality for the first 11 months of 2024. Total mortality was 1% higher than predicted, almost all because Covid-19 was higher than we predicted. #thread

Here is the same graph for flu (using the same scale as the Covid graph).
There were almost 800 deaths from influenza in 2024, compared with almost 500 in 2023. Note that the "bad" flu year of 2017 had 1,200 deaths, so 2024 is up there.
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The following graph compares deaths from COVID-19 in each month of 2024 to 2023, noting I have included allowance for late-registered deaths.
It looks like there will be just shy of 4,000 deaths from COVID-19 in 2024, compared with 4,600 in 2023.

Deaths due to COVID-19, influenza and RSV in Australia - 2022 - January 2025 Acute respiratory disease mortality in Australia

While the release doesnt include the full year of 2024 for the majority of the statistics, it does include provisional COVID/flu/RSV deaths for Dec24/Jan25, noting more deaths will be registered in future for these months.
www.abs.gov.au/articles/dea...

Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Nov 2024 Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality

ABS released their provisional mortality statistics yesterday, with data to 30 November 2024.

www.abs.gov.au/statistics/h...

This was not limited to the CSIRO by any means. It was standard practice in Australia that if a woman got married her career was over.

So #covidinquiry commissioned serious research by academics at Oxford Uni into vaccine safety. Concludes “best evidence” suggests jabs saved millions of lives. And any suggestion they caused excess mortality is “low quality and has been in many cases misinterpreted.” A short 🧵

Chart showing annual count of deaths in England & Wales, 2010 to 2024. It trends upwards (mostly due to population ageing).

Final ONS weekly deaths data for 2024 was released this morning. 563,762 deaths registered in the year.

For the first time since the onset of the pandemic, the number of deaths is consistent with the 2010-19 trend.

Look out for analysis and press commentary from the CMI this afternoon.

I think ED presentations are the most useful stat we have in NSW for being able to compare current to previous waves. Latest NSW health report shows the current wave lower than last year, but unclear if we’ve peaked.

The Centre for Population released their 2024 population statement just before Christmas. Includes projections of births, deaths and net migration that feed into Govt decision making.

population.gov.au/publications...

YouTube video by Tim Minchin White Wine In The Sun by Tim Minchin

This is a favourite with many Aussies - very few Christmas songs reflect our summer Christmas!

m.youtube.com/watch?v=fCNv...

Covid prevalence in NSW has increased this week, but indicators suggest it is still substantially less than the same time last year.
With Christmas now less than a week away, I’m hopeful this means the peak of this wave will also be much lower than last year.

www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/c...

Yep, I did

Oh goody. The anti-vaxxers have found me here

Not in Australia

For most of 2020 and 2021 yes, we had zero Covid.

Total deaths from non-COVID-19 respiratory causes were significantly (8%) higher than predicted.
Deaths from all other causes were in line with the prediction, which contrasts with 2021-2023 where deaths for many of these causes were significantly higher than anticipated.
Ends/