unfixed_income

Summersault my notes on Vivendi news

If you read this, my Saturday morning was not spent in vain. graoully.substack.com/p/summersault

evolution of the stakes of outside shareholders within the Bolloré group, over the last 3 years

Really nice overview

YouTube video by David Rubenstein Bloomberg Wealth: Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn

Great interview

www.youtube.com/watch?v=48In...

Är du kvar runt Picadilly så kan jag bjuda på en pint

Bull $KRI.AT

I think the jokes on you for reading about which ETFs a ”seasoned PM” is putting a few hundred thousand into.

It is awesome!

Follow the money: last week saw the beginning of a bunch of dividend payments in the Bolloré group. BOL received 12m from Vivendi and 18m from LHG. It must be painful to only get 30.4% of LHG's 60m total distribution (LHG received 63m from MMB). The big payday starts next month 1/n

I have Kri as a big position and have owned since 2021. My fear is UK growth will inevitably slow down at some point and US Froyo growth might be delayed by tariffs, which makes it hard to see an incredible IRR from here.

YouTube video by DeAandeelHouder TV Holdings: Exor, HAL Trust, GBL en Ackermans

Once more great content by Mr van Aken hosted by Mr Inberg. I don't share his views on private equity at all, but on AvH and HAL I came to the same conclusions after the recent disclosures. Must-watch if you're interested in european HoldCos.
youtu.be/ORYhvQp50Dc

Bolloré galaxy: AMF says that the take out offers on the ex rivaud entities are non compliant !!

Allmänna tankar kring rapporten/bolaget/aktien här?

Thank you chief!

Disclosure: I own both $BGEO and $CGEO (both listed in London). As always, not advice — but for me, this is one of those rare setups where patience could really pay off. 23/x

Obviously, this isn’t risk-free. First and foremost: country risk. Georgia is still a frontier market. Politics has been messy lately. They also share a border with Russia and who knows if Kremlin could attempt to M&A the country. That’s a big reason why the discount exists. 22/x

Could it stay cheap forever? Sure. But if they keep buying back 10–20% of shares annually, improving fundamentals, and the occasional monetisation lands — you don’t need rerating to make money here. Rerating is just the kicker. 21/x

Using the company's own valuation the discount to NAV is around 50%. I don't want to make this an exercise of putting multiples on non-listed companies in Georgia but the fact they they have been able to sell above book speaks loud here. 20/x

This would likely lead to CGEO conducting significant buybacks. At current share prices it means 1 or 2 good exists plus the regular dividends ~£45 mio could be enough to retire a third of shares outstanding in an instant. 19/x

This means CGEOs stake in BGEO is worth c £480 mio and you pay £100 mio for the stub. A stub with a clear goal to monetise these assets in the next few years. Moreover all cash received from dividends and asset sales will be measured against an incredibly high buyback-bar 18/x

Given their targets each of these handful investments could be worth anywhere from £50 to 150 mio in the foreseeable future. So let's put these numbers in context and do some basic arithmetic. Market cap BGEO £2,500mio and market cap CGEO £580mio... 17/x

Most of their investments have target growth rates of 15% (with correspondingly high ROIC targets) allowing them to grow while also paying back dividends to the CGEO mothership. 16/x.

The takeaway is this: CGEO isn’t playing empire builder. They’re running the numbers, comparing everything to buying back their own undervalued stock, and actually following through. Rare behavior, even rarer in emerging markets. 15/x

And when they do sell assets, they don’t mess around. Best examples, water utility and beer business exits. Water: Sold 80% at a 2.9x USD MOIC. Beer: Last year they sold 80% of this asset 40% above book value (for $63mio) while they have an ongoing put option for the rest. 14/x

Since the elections in Georgia last year they have been repurchasing 15-25 thousand shares daily, relative to the less than 38 million shares outstanding, this is punchy. If they wouldn't run out of sellers they could retire all outstanding shares in 5-8 years. 13/x

They even set a bar: they’ll only buy a private business if it trades at a larger discount to peers than CGEO trades to its own NAV. Because of the high hurdle this company is a real cannibal, retiring shares at an incredibly high pace. 12/x

unfixed_income
@unfixed_income
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6m
Basically, every time they look at a new investment, they compare it directly to:

a) the return from buying back their own stock, and
b) the return from selling existing assets and buying back stock. 11/x

Georgia Capital's approach is straightforward: buy, build, and monetize. They target sectors in Georgia with significant growth potential, aiming to transform investments into businesses valued at GEL 300 million (~£85m) within three to five years. 10/x

Because CGEO isn’t just BoG. It also owns a bunch of high-quality, cash-generating private businesses in Georgia — many of them market leaders. Retail pharmacy, insurance, hospitals, education, renewables. It’s a full-on platform. 9/x

In conclusion I think BoG could be a highly interesting investment in its own merit but there is more to it. BoGs largest shareholder is Georgia capital (CGEO). They owns ~19% of the bank and this is where it gets really fun... 8/x