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MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter

@mlb-simulator.bsky.social

Using expected outcomes to simulate previous MLB games. Code can be found in GitHub (https://github.com/dgrifka/baseball_game_simulator). Created by @derekgrifka.bsky.social

202 Followers  |  1 Following  |  2,836 Posts  |  Joined: 19.11.2024  |  1.5826

Latest posts by mlb-simulator.bsky.social on Bluesky

More updates to come for the app. If you have feedback or feature requests, I'd love to hear them. Just a reminder that this is a solo project I work on in my free time, so I'll do my best to get to everything but it might take a bit. Thanks for checking it out! See you soon.

18.01.2026 01:10 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Hi! Launched a Streamlit app for the Deserve-to-Win-O-Meter. You can now easily search any game from the 2025 season (soon 2026). Note I added spray angle to the model, which accounts for where balls are hit on the field, not just how hard.

dtw-str.streamlit.app

18.01.2026 01:10 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨 Dodgers are luck merchants! 🚨

⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays
🏟️ 11/01/2025

Final Score:
Dodgers 5 - 4 Blue Jays

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Dodgers 36% - 54% Blue Jays (Tie 10%)

#MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays
#LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo

02.11.2025 04:27 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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🚨 Dodgers are luck merchants! 🚨

⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays
🏟️ 10/31/2025

Final Score:
Dodgers 3 - 1 Blue Jays

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Dodgers 24% - 58% Blue Jays (Tie 18%)

#MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays
#LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo

01.11.2025 14:51 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾️ Playoff Update (10/30)

1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

30.10.2025 13:05 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Blue Jays @ Dodgers
🏟️ 10/29/2025

Final Score:
Blue Jays 6 - 1 Dodgers

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Blue Jays 70% - 15% Dodgers (Tie 15%)

#MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Dodgers
#LightsUpLetsGo #LetsGoDodgers

30.10.2025 03:23 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾️ Playoff Update (10/29)

1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

29.10.2025 13:07 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Blue Jays @ Dodgers
🏟️ 10/28/2025

Final Score:
Blue Jays 6 - 2 Dodgers

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Blue Jays 40% - 46% Dodgers (Tie 14%)

#MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Dodgers
#LightsUpLetsGo #LetsGoDodgers

29.10.2025 03:12 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾️ Playoff Update (10/28)

1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

28.10.2025 12:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The model takes into account strength of schedule and the Yankees had an objectively tough schedule with a positive record against teams >.500

28.10.2025 12:53 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Blue Jays @ Dodgers
🏟️ 10/27/2025

Final Score:
Blue Jays 5 - 6 Dodgers

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Blue Jays 10% - 85% Dodgers (Tie 5%)

#MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Dodgers
#LightsUpLetsGo #LetsGoDodgers

28.10.2025 09:57 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

They had the 2nd highest run differential this year with arguably the most powerful offense. Seems like they were flat at times, but for the most part they were a great team

28.10.2025 00:58 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾️ Playoff Update (10/27)

1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

27.10.2025 13:37 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays
🏟️ 10/25/2025

Final Score:
Dodgers 5 - 1 Blue Jays

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Dodgers 57% - 28% Blue Jays (Tie 16%)

#MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays
#LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo

26.10.2025 02:55 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 10/24/2025

1️⃣ Most Expected Bases
2️⃣ Least Expected Bases
3️⃣ Luckiest Hits
4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs

#MLB #Baseball #Statcast

25.10.2025 13:57 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Dodgers @ Blue Jays
🏟️ 10/24/2025

Final Score:
Dodgers 4 - 11 Blue Jays

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Dodgers 3% - 94% Blue Jays (Tie 3%)

#MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #BlueJays
#LetsGoDodgers #LightsUpLetsGo

25.10.2025 03:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾️ Playoff Update (10/24)

1) World Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

24.10.2025 14:09 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Mariners @ Blue Jays
🏟️ 10/20/2025

Final Score:
Mariners 3 - 4 Blue Jays

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Mariners 28% - 59% Blue Jays (Tie 13%)

#MLB #Statcast #Mariners #BlueJays
#TridentsUp #LightsUpLetsGo

21.10.2025 03:07 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Mariners @ Blue Jays
🏟️ 10/19/2025

Final Score:
Mariners 2 - 6 Blue Jays

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Mariners 10% - 82% Blue Jays (Tie 8%)

#MLB #Statcast #Mariners #BlueJays
#TridentsUp #LightsUpLetsGo

20.10.2025 03:05 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Brewers @ Dodgers
🏟️ 10/17/2025

Final Score:
Brewers 1 - 5 Dodgers

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Brewers 1% - 98% Dodgers (Tie 1%)

#MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Dodgers
#ThisIsMyCrew #LetsGoDodgers

18.10.2025 03:22 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Blue Jays @ Mariners
🏟️ 10/17/2025

Final Score:
Blue Jays 2 - 6 Mariners

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Blue Jays 18% - 72% Mariners (Tie 10%)

#MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Mariners
#LightsUpLetsGo #TridentsUp

18.10.2025 01:20 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾️ Daily Playoff Update (10/17)

1) Championship Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

17.10.2025 13:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Batted Ball Analysis from 10/16/2025

1️⃣ Most Expected Bases
2️⃣ Least Expected Bases
3️⃣ Luckiest Hits
4️⃣ Unluckiest Outs

#MLB #Baseball #Statcast

17.10.2025 13:25 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Blue Jays @ Mariners
🏟️ 10/16/2025

Final Score:
Blue Jays 8 - 2 Mariners

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Blue Jays 73% - 16% Mariners (Tie 11%)

#MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Mariners
#LightsUpLetsGo #TridentsUp

17.10.2025 03:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Brewers @ Dodgers
🏟️ 10/16/2025

Final Score:
Brewers 1 - 3 Dodgers

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Brewers 27% - 42% Dodgers (Tie 31%)

#MLB #Statcast #Brewers #Dodgers
#ThisIsMyCrew #LetsGoDodgers

17.10.2025 01:18 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾️ Daily Playoff Update (10/16)

1) Championship Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

16.10.2025 13:19 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Blue Jays @ Mariners
🏟️ 10/15/2025

Final Score:
Blue Jays 13 - 4 Mariners

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Blue Jays 97% - 1% Mariners (Tie 2%)

#MLB #Statcast #BlueJays #Mariners
#LightsUpLetsGo #TridentsUp

16.10.2025 03:10 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾️ Daily Playoff Update (10/15)

1) Championship Series probabilities based on series record, team strength, and remaining home/away games

2) Team Strength Rankings

#Postseason

15.10.2025 14:02 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Dodgers @ Brewers
🏟️ 10/14/2025

Final Score:
Dodgers 5 - 1 Brewers

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Dodgers 94% - 3% Brewers (Tie 4%)

#MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #Brewers
#LetsGoDodgers #ThisIsMyCrew

15.10.2025 03:06 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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⚾ Dodgers @ Brewers
🏟️ 10/13/2025

Final Score:
Dodgers 2 - 1 Brewers

πŸ“Š Deserve-to-Win:
Dodgers 97% - 1% Brewers (Tie 2%)

#MLB #Statcast #Dodgers #Brewers
#LetsGoDodgers #ThisIsMyCrew

14.10.2025 03:06 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

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