ericturkheimer.substack.com/p/news-flash... More underwhelming results for polygenic scores

Has anybody checked in on the people who said that means tested programs are just as durable as universal programs? Not going so hot.

If this Senate language on solar passes, I think we’re in a full-blown national energy crisis within 2 years.

Forecasting after the cliff is even worse, but project pipelines will dry up, supply chains will convulse...and cost of new additions will soar. Assuming we can even meet demand growth. 🔌💡

The US has denied the visas of all 12 members of the Senegalese women’s basketball team who were scheduled to travel to the country as part of their preparation for the Afrobasket tournament that begins in August. Afrobasket is also the African qualifiers for the Olympics.

#wnba

This is an annoyingly common myth and Jamelle walks through why it's not actually what the law says. It's not even the theory past presidents have invoked to excuse their violations, because it's facially not what the law says on its own terms.

Many Exporters No Longer Want Dollars, US Bank Executive Says When Paula Comings, the head of currency sales for US Bancorp, talks to US importers, she increasingly hears the same message: Their foreign counterparties no longer want to be paid in dollars.

Another sign that the dollar’s dominance is in trouble: US importers are increasingly being asked by their foreign counterparties to settle transactions in currencies other than the US dollar, such as euros, RMB, Mexican pesos, and Canadian dollars.

Henry VIII?

The standard errors of persistence Many studies of historical persistence find that modern outcomes strongly reflect characteristics of the same places in the distant past. However they…

This one seems pretty important . . . goes after a slew of them
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The Pentagon Disinformation That Fueled America’s UFO Mythology U.S. military fabricated evidence of alien technology and allowed rumors to fester to cover up real secret-weapons programs

www.wsj.com/politics/nat... This makes a lot of sense.

Are we in a recession in 2025?

Yesterday's US Court of International Trade decision invalidates the recent tariffs imposed under IEEPA, including the "reciprocal" tariffs & most tariffs on China, Canada, & Mexico, leaving only the Section 232 commodity tariffs in place. What are the economic implications?
1/8

What's the historical accuracy rate of CEOs speculating about the massive economy-wide effects of their own technology?

Indeed, it's contrary to the way the Constitution reads, what the Framers wrote, and the way it's been implemented.

There is no constitutional basis for the idea Congress can't restrict the terms and removal conditions for executive officers because POTUS has to be able to fire whoever he wants at will. It's not there. It doesn't reflect a historical tradition or any original meaning. SCOTUS made it up in Myers.

Let's be real: if Republicans pass the House budget bill as is, it will murder the US nuclear industry, ruin our chances of winning the AI race (by constraining power supply), concede the global auto sector to China, and vaporize about half a trillion dollars of US manufacturing investment...

Happy to send some stuff if you DM me your e-mail.

Toporowski and Sawyer are prominent scholars who have discussed and summarized Kalecki's work.

More frenemies with those three

Chris Krebs, Ex-Leader of Cybersecurity Agency, Is Under Investigation, Trump Officials Say The disclosure came three weeks after President Trump directed the Justice Department to investigate the former agency leader, Chris Krebs, in an act of score settling.

This saga is one of the scariest and most destructive things the Trump administration has pursued so far, from the standpoint of US democracy. It’s far beyond one individual. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/u...

(Bloomberg) -- China said it is assessing the possibility of trade talks with the US, the first sign since Donald Trump hiked tariffs last month that negotiations could begin between the two sides. China's Commerce Ministry said in a Friday statement that it had noted senior US officials repeatedly expressing their willingness to talk to Beijing about tariffs, and urged officials in Washington to show "sincerity" toward China. "The US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China," the ministry added. "China is currently evaluating this."

The statement signaled the stalemate between the world's two largest economies could shift, after Trump hiked US tariffs to the highest level in a century and Beijing retaliated in kind. Trump has repeatedly said President Xi Jinping needs to contact him in order to begin tariff talks. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it's up to Beijing to take the first step to de-escalate the dispute. John Gong, a former consultant to China's Commerce Ministry, likened the latest gesture to "the first rain after a long drought." It suggests "there's a go-ahead from the very top of the leadership in China," according to Gong, who's now a professor at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. "They are preparing for the negotiation, who's going to lead the negotiation, what would be the strategy, what is the model like to deal with Washington," he told Bloomberg Television. "All these things are currently probably being intensively debated and discussed right now."

The dual role created for Rubio will amplify his voice on issues of key concern to Beijing including Taiwan, a self-ruled island democracy that China claims as its territory. The top US diplomat has previously pledged to address Beijing's "destabilizing actions" in the South China Sea. Speaking in an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity broadcast on Thursday night, Rubio said China is looking for a "short-term accommodation" with the US and claimed the duties are taking a huge toll on its economy. "The Chinese are reaching out," Rubio said. "They want to meet, they want to talk." Representatives for the White House, Office of the US Trade Representative and the departments of Treasury and Commerce didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

My read on this is very different from how the reporting has framed it. These two countries have mutually exclusive versions of what’s happening right now, not some sort of grounds for agreement.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The U.S. economy shrank -0.3% in Q1 and tariffs didn’t even start until March. To every Trump fan who tells you they didn’t sign up for this, never forget…

The Port of LA (the main route of entry for goods coming from China) is expecting a large drop in scheduled arrivals ... by May 4, estimates show a decline of about a third from a year earlier.

(h/t Kevin Gordon) @financialtimes.com

Chinese policymakers continue to take a tough stance on extreme US tariffs.

Refusing to negotiate, official accounts openly mocking the US, and today publishing a revisit of Mao's "On Protracted War" all point to little desire to give in anytime soon.

Thread.

I was at a fundraiser tonight for the local hospital. Spoke with dozens of business owners, many had different stories about how tariffs are impacting their business: 1 - Logistics exec: "One of our big box customers has stopped taking new imports from China altogether." 2 - Community banker: "We are requiring all home builders to bring more equity due to higher anticipated costs. This will have a big impact on new home builds later in the year." 3 - Wholesale distributor: "Overseas suppliers have changed payment terms, requiring payment up front. They've had so many US orders refuse to take delivery due to tariffs, now they view US customers as a credit risk." 4 - Toy retailer: "A large number of our domestic suppliers have cancelled all incoming containers and are not placing new orders until they get some direction, which will impact this coming holiday season. Toys will be in short supply all over the country." 5 - Staffing in manufacturing: "We had a lot of momentum coming in this year. Our manufacturing clients have mostly paused all new placements. We are talking hundreds of would-be jobs that have disappeared." 6 - Investment banker: "We had several deals in process that have stalled, including one large ($300M+) transaction that fell apart literally on the day of closing. The private equity fund got cold feet." 7 - Hospital exec: "We have a few months of inventory of PPE available. We can't pass on price increases, because most of our prices are fixed with the carriers. We aren't placing orders for anything that comes from China."

chat is this good

YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts Anna Wong: Empty Shelves Are Coming Soon | Odd Lots

“The inventory for Christmas, for Halloween, is already being disrupted right now.” #trade #tariffs #China #Trump @bloomberg.com

Big Ten university faculties push for defense compact against Trump The proposed NATO-like alliance for the 18 schools would allow them to share resources in case the president targets one of their members. Today at 7:00 a.m. ET

where we are in 2025: major universities seeking a mutual-protection treaty against the U.S. president

30 years after arriving in the US, I just resigned from Northwestern and we sold our house.

We are an American family, I became a citizen in 2014, and until recently did not expect to ever leave. But now, this no longer feels like the right place to raise a family and pursue a research career.