Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei could be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would...

Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed

www.reuters.com/world/middle...

A line graph showing NSF grant awards made through 2/27/26 for fiscal year 2026 compared with grant awards for fiscal years 2021-2025.

NSF Update (Awards through 2/27/26)

Directorates to follow

1/10

Broke: dead internet theory
Woke: undead internet theory

It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate Summary: The unemployment rate has risen 1% from its post-pandemic trough three years ago, but this rise likely overstates the degree of labor market and business cycle deterioration relative to what ...

Latest @employamerica.bsky.social

It Wasn't A Recession - How Age Divergence & A Participation Boom Drove A 1% Rise In The Unemployment Rate

www.employamerica.org/labor-market...

YouTube video by Federal Reserve Statement by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=KckG...
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

When Mark Carney sets specific goals for Canada to "diversify away" from its reliance on the US—making headlines in Canada but not the US—hear that for what it is: Close partners and allies looking elsewhere for better friends.

This is the silent way that the US loses its pointless trade war.

I wonder who's going to get it.

> @conorsen.bsky.social

Unless you support turning away the undocumented from emergency rooms, you support the same position as the CA Dems. I notice the abundance question is very unpopular too, did you see that one?

🎓 Thinking about grad school?
Join us Sat, Oct 25 for AU’s College of Arts & Sciences Graduate Programs Fall Open House!

🕚 11 a.m.–3 p.m. | 📍 Check in: Mary Graydon Center, 10:30–10:50
Meet faculty, explore campus, and learn how a CAS grad degree can advance your goals.
👉 Register: bit.ly/3Jbqyhw

"Trump Hopes Argentina Can Help Bring Down Meat Prices
President Trump’s plan to import red meat runs counter to his philosophy of increasing domestic production, and has angered cattle ranchers in the United States." www.nytimes.com/2025/10/20/u...

More Than 170 U.S. Citizens Have Been Held by Immigration Agents. They’ve Been Kicked, Dragged and Detained for Days. The government does not track how often immigration agents grab citizens. So ProPublica did. Our tally — almost certainly incomplete — includes people who were held for days without a lawyer. And near...

BREAKING from PP

We found immigration agents have held more than 170 *citizens*

The govt doesn't track citizens held. So we did. We tallied:

Nearly 20 kids, two w/ cancer

More than 20 citizens held for day or more, incommunicado

www.propublica.org/article/immi...

by @nicolefoy.bsky.social

If you want a research fellow, you got it

"We're going to create superintelligence" How about making outlook search work first. How about that

Or written by AI.

Big picture, we do not know the exact answer to 'how good/bad is the ADP data if BLS data disappears?' but the private data providers themselves are pretty clear in every conference/panel that the quality of their own data will erode if they cannot benchmark to BLS estimates.

The Research Associate is a position on IWPR’s Research Team conducting research, including quantitative and qualitative empirical analysis, on issues related to IWPR’s core topics of Equitable Work and Wages, Caregiving and Families, Education and Career Advancement, and Reproductive Justice and Health Equity. The goal of our research is better inform partners and policymakers on ways to advance the economic security and well-being of women, their families, and communities. For this position, candidates must have demonstrated working experience with statistical programs such as STATA, R or SPSS, major national public health and/or economic databases, and be able to interpret data, analyze results, acquire data from primary or secondary sources, and filter and clean data. This role is expected to be able to produce high quality research products for public audiences with independent initiative and minimal oversight. Duties and Responsibilities Research: Conduct and draft literature reviews and collaborate on research proposals that identify novel and impactful research activities on issues related to IWPR core research areas: Equitable Work and Wages, Caregiving and Families, Education and Career Advancement, and Reproductive Justice and Health Equity. Perform advanced, complex quantitative data analysis of large datasets and trends, utilizing network science and/or other statistical methods, including creating data visuals. Perform advanced qualitative data analysis, including developing and fielding online surveys; and conducting interviews and focus groups. Write high quality blog posts, briefs, fact sheets, reports and presentations based on the data work and analysis and accessible to broad audiences including policymakers, advocates, and the media. Use and integrate racial equity and intersectional frameworks and analysis in research study designs, written reports, and briefs. Assist with proposal and grant report drafting.

Who wants to work with Kate Bahn at the Institute for Women's Policy Research?
#econ_ra
iwpr.applytojob.com/apply/ACdbXf...

Prodigal son is a good lesson

Trump’s administration escalated its assault against the BLS on Tuesday after it revised down its estimates of payroll employment in the year to March 2025 by more than 900,000 jobs. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the revision underlined the need for “truthful and honest data” and added that “the BLS is broken”. On Wednesday the labour department’s Office of Inspector General announced it was launching a probe into “challenges that [BLS] encounters collecting and reporting closely watched economic data”. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at consultancy RSM, said the controversy surrounding the BLS would “increase demand for private label data, which will over time create a widening gap between the haves and the have-nots”.

Seems bad: “The rise of unofficial US economic reports.” on.ft.com/4n38BAs

The extroverts ruin everything

Fellow economists: Stand up for Fed Governor Lisa Cook and the principle of Federal Reserve independence. Sign this letter by Monday.

Signature page for Open Letter of Support of Governor Lisa Cook and Federal Reserve Independence By filling out the form below, you are asking your signature to be added to this open letter.

I signed an open letter from economists supporting Fed independence & Gov. Lisa Cook. Add your name by Monday: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... |

Letter: docs.google.com/document/d/1...

This letter is not particularly controversial in its assertions and the topic of central bank independence is extremely important. Takes about 4.5 minutes to read and sign (if you agree.) Looks like the number of signatories is up since Tatyana's post, but Economics needs YOU!

Counterfactual French realm without the revolution

I see it now, thanks!

AI Hype vs. Productivity Reality Despite bold claims, there’s little evidence AI has boosted productivity so far. Even stretched scenarios indicate gains will fall short of past booms, suggesting current optimism is likely overdone.

AI Hype vs. Productivity Reality

Despite bold claims, there’s little evidence AI has boosted productivity so far. Even stretched scenarios indicate gains will fall short of past booms, suggesting current optimism is likely overdone.

open.substack.com/pub/bobeunli...

The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word.

docs.google.com/document/d/1...

I can't edit but would like to sign:
Gabriel Mathy, Associate Professor of Economics, American University

Trump Administration Live Updates: President Says He Is Removing Lisa Cook From Federal Reserve Board

It’s hard to overstate how big a deal this is - for the economy (ours and globally), for the rule of law, and for the proper and efficient function of government.

www.nytimes.com/live/2025/08...