CBI Economics

Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week

Weak growth, stubborn inflation

The Bank of England faces a tough trade-off, with cautious rate cuts amid a loosening jobs market. Wage pressures are easing slowly, but risks remain.

This month's Economy in Brief from @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social breaks it down: t.co/0RouuL0j4W 🔒

Today marks a milestone! 🎉 The CBI is proud to celebrate 60 years of championing business growth, driving change, and influencing policy.

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Here’s to the next 60 years! 💼

#CBI60 #VoiceOfBusiness #BusinessGrowth

The downturn is expected to be broad-based, with firms across every major sector anticipating weaker activity:
• Consumer services -28%
• Distribution -28%
• Business & professional services -16%
• Manufacturing -6%
Confidence remains fragile heading into the autumn 📊

📉 Private sector firms expect activity to fall again through October.
The latest CBI Growth Indicator shows continued weakness across the economy, extending a run of negative sentiment that began in late 2024

Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell at the same firm rate as last month in the year to July, and are expected to contract at only a slightly slower pace in August.

Elsewhere, #wholesale sales volumes fell in the year to July at a similarly firm rate to last month and are expected to decline at a comparable pace in August.

In contrast to headline sales, online retail sales volumes grew marginally in the year to July, marking the third month in a row of expansion. Internet sales are expected to rise at the same pace in August.

For the time of year, retailers judged sales volumes to be “poor” in July, but to a considerably lesser extent than last month. However, next month’s sales are expected to fall short of seasonal norms to a greater degree.

#Retail sales volumes fell strongly in the year to July, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Retailers expect the ongoing downturn to extend into August.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

The second-warmest June on record helped boost retail sales volumes across the four main sectors, with automotive fuel sales recording their strongest monthly rise since May 2024. Retailers in non-food stores also attributed growth to promotions.

#Retail sales volumes rose by 0.9% in June (m/m), following a sharp fall of 2.8% in May. Over the second quarter as a whole, sales rose by a modest 0.2%, down from a stronger 1.3% rise in Q1.

Numbers employed fell in the quarter to July. Manufacturers expect numbers to fall again, albeit marginally, in the quarter to October. #ITS

The main constraint on investment was uncertainty about demand, followed by inadequate net return, and labour shortages. #ITS

Investment intentions for the year ahead are weak. Manufacturers expect to reduce investment in buildings, plant & machinery, in training & retraining, and in product & process innovation. #ITS

Average costs rose in the quarter to July, at the fastest pace since January 2023. Costs growth is expected to slow in the quarter to October. Domestic price inflation is expected to rise in the next quarter, whereas export prices are anticipated to be unchanged. #ITS

Business sentiment continued to deteriorate in July. Export optimism for the year ahead also weakened. #ITS

Competitiveness in non-EU markets worsened at the fastest pace since January 2005 in the three months to July. Competitiveness in non-EU markets is expected to worsen again in the three months to October. #ITS

Total new orders fell through the quarter, driven by a decline in domestic orders while export orders were flat. Manufacturers expect the total volume of new orders to decline in the three months to October. #ITS

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes were broadly unchanged in the quarter to July. Firms expect volumes to fall slightly in the three months to October. #ITS

Great chart from Deutsche Bank, showing just how divided the Bank of England's MPC are at the moment. And split views seem to be picking up, as the labour market loosens.

Though divisions within the Committee aren't necessarily a bad thing, of course.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

CBI responds to latest inflation data for June 2025 | CBI CBI responds to latest inflation data for June 2025

To read our response to today’s data release, click here: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

The rise in inflation between May and June was driven by transport prices, primarily due to a smaller decline in fuel pump costs compared to last year

UK CPI inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 3.6% in June (from 3.4% in May), marking the highest rate since January 2024. Core CPI inflation also increased to 3.7%, from 3.5% in the previous month

Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week

CBI responds to latest GDP data for May 2025 | CBI CBI responds to latest GDP data for May 2025

To read our full response to today’s data release click here: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

The production sector was the main drag on activity in May, while construction output also fell, offsetting a modest positive contribution from services.

UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive monthly decline after a 0.3% fall in April, though this follows a surprisingly strong first quarter. GDP grew by 0.5% in the three months to May.