CBI Economics

Economy in brief: November 2025 | CBI Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.

Following Budget jitters that left businesses in a state of suspension, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks in our extended Economy in Brief:

· Key takeaways from the OBR forecast
· The Budget’s implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy

Read more🔒:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Pre-Budget uncertainty holds back private sector activity further - CBI Growth Indicator | CBI Pre-Budget uncertainty holds back private sector activity further - CBI Growth Indicator

🔗 To learn more, and read @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social 's full response, click here: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

💸 Price pressures steady

Selling price expectations have eased back, to or below their long-run average across the private sector.

📊Firms expect to see further declines:

• Business & professional services: -23%
• Consumer services: -40%
• Distribution: -26%
• Manufacturing: -30%

[Figures shown are net balances – the percentage of firms expecting an increase in output/activity, minus those expecting a decrease]

📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO ACCELERATE TO FEBRUARY 2026

Firms expect activity to fall again over the next three months, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024. Growth expectations worsened a little further, in large part driven by pre-Budget uncertainty.

Service sector conditions deteriorate in the quarter to November - CBI Service Sector Survey | CBI Service sector conditions deteriorate in the quarter to November - CBI Service Sector Survey

Business sentiment and activity dropped further across the services sector in the quarter to November.

For more detail on the latest survey, check out our press release 👇
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/service-sector-conditions-deteriorate-in-the-quarter-to-november-cbi-service-sector-survey/

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

Joint statement: Employment Rights Amendment Welcomed | CBI Joint statement: Employment Rights Amendment Welcomed

🚨Breaking news: The government has agreed to a six-month qualifying period for unfair dismissal in the Employment Rights Bill. Read the joint statement from the CBI and the other business groups involved in tripartite discussions:
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Autumn Budget 2025 | CBI Full CBI analysis and impact: what the Chancellor announced, where the CBI had impact, and what it means for your business

The Chancellor has set sufficient headroom, now it's time to accelerate growth.

✅ Wins: skills, innovation, planning

⚠️ Risks: energy costs, employment costs, limited tax reform

See the detail in the CBI #Budget2025 analysis ➡️ orlo.uk/EzWjD

Conditions in the UK retail and broader distribution sector remain gloomy, with sentiment and annual sales dropping in November. Households continue to be cautious, and Budget-related uncertainty is weighing on capex and hiring.

Check out the key figures from the latest CBI DTS 👇

Steepest fall in retail sentiment in 17 years - CBI Distributive Trades Survey | CBI Steepest fall in retail sentiment in 17 years - CBI Distributive Trades Survey

To learn more about this month's Distributive Trades Survey data, see our press release:
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell in the year to November at a slightly quicker rate to October. Sales are set to decline at the same pace next month.

Selling price inflation fell closer to the long-run average in the year to November, following a sharp rise in August. Retailers anticipate selling price growth to ease slightly again next month.

Headcount in retail declined again in the year to November and is expected to fall at a slightly faster pace next month.

Retailers plan to pull back investment in the year ahead. Investment intentions remain historically weak and have now been negative for three-and-a-half years.

Retailers judged November’s sales volumes to be “poor” for the time of year, to a somewhat greater extent than in October. December’s sales are set to continue disappointing, to a comparable degree.

Retail sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the year to November, extending a period of weakness that goes back to mid-2023. Retailers expect sales set to fall again heading into December, albeit at a somewhat slower pace.

Retailers were hit by Budget worries in November, with sentiment about the business situation recording its steepest fall in 17 years – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.

Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week

October’s fall in retail sales was broad-based across all four main sectors. Following strong activity seen over the summer, some retailers attributed this recent drop in sales to consumers delaying their purchases in anticipation of Black Friday discounts.

Retail sales volumes fell sharply in October, by 1.1%, marking the first fall since May 2025. Despite the monthly decline, underlying momentum was boosted by sales growth over the summer, with volumes rising by 1.1% over the three months to October.

Manufacturing output volumes fall sharply in three months to November – CBI Industrial Trends Survey | CBI Manufacturing output volumes fall sharply in three months to November – CBI Industrial Trends Survey

🔗To learn more, check out our full results here: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than “adequate” in November, and stand slightly above the long-run average.

Total order books and export order books were reported as below “normal” in November. Both stand below their respective long-run averages.

Expectations for average selling price inflation eased in November, and stand in ling with the long-run average.

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to November, the sharpest pace of decline since the three months to August 2020. Manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the next three months.

CBI responds to latest inflation data for October 2025 | CBI CBI responds to latest inflation data for October 2025

"Today's [inflation] figures add to the evidence that price pressures are gradually subsiding.

If this trend continues, the case for an interest rate cut in December looks increasingly compelling.”

Check out our full response to today's inflation data:
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Utility bills made the largest downward contribution to slowing inflation, reflecting a smaller rise in Ofgem’s energy price cap change in October (2%) relative to this time last year (10%). This more than offset upward contributions from food & drink and other key categories.

UK CPI inflation slowed to 3.6% in October, down from its 3.8% peak and in line with consensus expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) eased further to 3.4% (from 3.5% in September)

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week