CBI Economics

Activity in the FS sector dropped at its quickest rate in five years in Q3, but firms expect a strong rebound next quarter.

Check out the findings from the survey 👇🧵

Financial services activity falls at fastest pace since 2020 – CBI Financial Services Survey | CBI Financial services activity falls at fastest pace since 2020 – CBI Financial Services Survey

To learn more about this quarter's survey data, see our press release:
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

FS firms plan to raise investment in IT over the next 12 months (vs previous 12), while slightly cutting back on land & buildings and vehicles, plant & machinery. Demand uncertainty is the main constraint on capex, with concerns at their most widespread in 13 years.

Headcount fell at a firm pace over the quarter to September, but the rate of decline is expected to ease in the next three months.

Despite the sharp deterioration in activity, sentiment in FS was broadly flat in the three months to September, marking an improvement compared with the previous quarter’s steep drop.

Business volumes in the financial services sector fell at the fastest rate since June 2020 in Q3 2025. However, firms expect volumes growth to make a strong recovery next quarter, according to the latest CBI Financial Services Survey.

Economic deep dive Q3 2025 | CBI Your quarterly guide to the UK economy; making sense of the key trends and what's driving them.

Private sector activity is weak, hiring plans remain soft, and the investment appetite is muted. 📊

Our Q3 Economic Deep Dive helps business leaders cut through the noise on demand, costs & labour markets. 🔍

Exclusive to CBI members🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Economy in brief: September 2025 | CBI Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.

With weak underlying economic momentum and sticky #inflation, the #MPC is set to tread cautiously. In our September’s Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores the Bank Rate decision, UK outlook and jittery bond markets.

Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Private sector expects activity to fall through fourth quarter of 2025 – CBI Growth Indicator  | CBI Private sector expects activity to fall through fourth quarter of 2025 – CBI Growth Indicator

CBI Deputy Chief Economist @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social said “The weakness in private sector activity doesn’t show any signs of letting up and is now expected to persist to the end of this year.”

For the full analysis, click here: 🔓
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

📊 Expectations point to weakness across the board:
• Business & professional services: -14%
• Consumer services: -31%
• Distribution: -33%
• Manufacturing: -14%

[Figures shown are net balances – the percentage of firms expecting an increase minus those expecting a decrease]

📉 Private sector activity is expected to fall in the next quarter, with expectations weakening on August

All major sectors remain in negative territory, underlying persistent weakness in demand.

🧵 More on the outlook for services, manufacturing, and distributive trades below.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

Retail sales fall for twelfth month in a row - CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September 2025 | CBI Retail sales fall for twelfth month in a row - CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September 2025

For a fuller picture of September’s Distributive Trades Survey data, check out our press release 👇
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

September marked the twelfth straight month of falling annual retail sales, according to our latest DTS. Weak demand conditions are weighing on sales, while US tariffs are adding pressure for some retailers.

Check out the results of the survey 👇

Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell at a faster rate compared to August. The rate of decline is expected to ease somewhat in October.

#Wholesales annual sales volumes declined at a modestly quicker pace in September but are expected to fall at a slower pace in October.

Internet sales volumes declined at a strong pace in the year to September but are expected to fall at a slightly slower rate next month.

Sales for the time of year were judged to be “poor” in September, though to a lesser extent than in August. Next month, retailers expect sales to fall further below seasonal norms.

#Retail sales volumes fell year-on-year for the 12th month in a row in September, highlighting persistently weak demand conditions in the sector, according to the latest CBI DTS. Sales are expected to decline at a slightly faster rate next month.

Manufacturing output volumes fall in three months to September | CBI Manufacturing output volumes fall in three months to September

To learn more, click here🔓: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than “adequate” in September, in line with the long-run average.

Total order books and export order books were reported as below “normal” in September. Both stand below their respective long-run averages.

Expectations for average selling price inflation eased in September to their weakest since October 2024 and now stand below the long-run average.

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to September, at a slower pace to the three months to August. Manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the next three months.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

The business impact of the NICs increase | CBI We analyse business responses collected from our regular surveys about the impact of the hikes in National Insurance Contributions.

Since last year’s Autumn Budget hiked labour costs, UK businesses have faced a tough balancing act. How are they responding?

Read our latest blog 👉
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/the...

Increases in sales volumes across online, non-food, and food stores more than offset a sharp fall in fuel sales. Retailers noted that the dry, sunny weather helped to support sales in August.

#Retail sales volumes rose by 0.5% m/m in August (from 0.5% in July), marking a third consecutive month of growth. Underlying momentum was more muted, however, with sales falling by 0.1% over the three months to August.

The @bankofengland.bsky.social has held interest rates at 4%. Our Deputy Chief Economist, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social says 👇

Read his full response: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

UK inflation remained elevated in August at 3.8%. Higher food and energy prices, alongside passthrough from increased labour costs, will continue putting upward pressure on prices in the near term