Pau S. Pujolas

Why not the Kehoe-Prescott?

Have you written a great macro paper?
Submit to the CJE.
New macro crowd in the editorial board with Joe Steinberg at the helm.
#macro #econbluesky

Thanks for the nice words, John!

Thank you @chrisneill.bsky.social!!! We are very happy with the recognition!

If, as the say, "Wars are God's way of teaching Americans geography," it must be the case that "Tariffs are God's way of teaching Americans Economics."

"I thought I was voting for pro-business policies and small, targeted, and incremental tariffs, that would encourage..." How could anyone watch Trump, listen to what he says, and think anything constructive would ensue on the economic policy front?

We're in the midst of an election, so lots of not-entirely-fleshed-out promises being made. I think we have to wait to see the first budget from the incoming government.

"It felt like vertigo": The White House used this economist's research to justify tariffs. They couldn't have got it more wrong - Toronto Life McMaster professor Pau Pujolas shares the story behind a Trump administration reading-comprehension fail

The Toronto Life folks (Ali Amad, in this case) did a great job summarizing how things have been.
torontolife.com/city/it-felt...

Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...

Our paper with Jack "Trade Wars with Trade Deficits" has made quite the rounds as of late.
We put together these notes to help understand the results:
drive.google.com/file/d/1cTRr...

Yes, the stock market behaves efficiently. Erratic, volatile are not antonyms of efficient.
Williamson is spot on, as usual.

1/So, I take "efficient market hypothesis" to be the proposition that there is some model of rational behavior consistent with asset market behavior. What's puzzling? You load the world up with a highly unusual amount of uncertainty, and then force it to respond to a quickly-evolving series...

I am happy the Globe and Mail published this piece.

Don't blame @paupujolas.bsky.social

Trump Administration has cited this paper by Pujolas & Rossbach as justifying recent Trump tariffs. It does not. Nor does it justify 2018 Trump tariffs on China:

"We find that both the United States and China experienced welfare losses from their recent trade war."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

THE COST OF TRADE DISRUPTIONS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT We study trade disruptions at different stages of development in a two-country, three-sector model of Spain and United Kingdom from 1850 to 2000. The impact of trade disruptions depends on trade open....

Worried about Smoot-Hawley repeating?
You should be *even more* worried now.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Advertencia importante de @paupujolas.bsky.social : los países pequeños siempre pierden en guerras comerciales. Razón de más para mantener filas prietas en la UE.

De hecho, nuestros resultados indican que, de mantenerse los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales existentes, la política comercial óptima para Estados Unidos consiste en empezar un montón de guerras comerciales con varios países. 3/3

Los Estados Unidos podría iniciar una guerra comercial con China y, si se establecieran los aranceles correctos, ganarla. 2/3

Guerras y Déficits en Comercio Internacional Por Pau S. Pujolas y Jack Rossbach El 2 de marzo de 2018, el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald J. Trump, tuiteó: "Cuando un país (EE. UU.) está perdiendo muchos miles de millones de dólares en c...

Ya lo dijimos en este artículo
nadaesgratis.es/admin/guerra...

De cara al futuro, los responsables de la formulación de políticas comerciales, deben comprender que los desequilibrios comerciales bilaterales cambian la manera de pensar en guerras comerciales... 1/3

Elbows up, Canada.

Why McMaster Donors Give: Darrell Tomkins and David Feeny When David Feeny and Darrell Tomkins met at McMaster in 1976, they never imagined that their shared love for academia would lead to not only . . .

A great idea from my friend David Feeny and his wife Darrell Tomkins.
Help a first-generation student by donating!
dailynews.mcmaster.ca/articles/why...

Some countries aren't retaliating against Trump's tariffs. Should Canada 'turn the other cheek'? | CBC News Faced with tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, some countries have decided, so far, to respond by turning the other cheek, and not retaliate with their own duties.

www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...
Because "retaliating" is a misleasing word.

One of my companies informed me they cancelled a $2m conference in Florida. Why ?

They didn’t feel they could pass on the incremental cost of tariffs. So they are cutting expenses.

That’s a city that lost a ton of tourism revenue.

The cost of tariffs isn’t just the cost of the tariff

Felicidades Juan!!

Let's have a second to think of all those Old Folks in Trumpland that voted for the Very Stable Genius and are now panicking when they look at their 401k.
Vote for the Qualified, Dark-Skinned Female next time, ey?
(If there is a next time)

"I've seen photographs..." What a clown.

YouTube video by pmw8000 "Anyone, anyone" teacher from Ferris Bueller's Day Off

Anyone indeed
youtube.com/watch?v=uhiC...

Trudeau: "He talked about banking again today in a tweet, which doesn't make any sense because 16 banks are currently active in Canada holding about $113b worth of assets in this country... what he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy, because that'll make it easier to annex us."