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Tom DF5JL

@tomdf5jl.bsky.social

Citizen scientist, space weather observer, radio amateur, DARC / RSGB / VERON / AOC / AFCEA / OSINT / FWBSt RHB

151 Followers  |  18 Following  |  465 Posts  |  Joined: 07.10.2023
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Posts by Tom DF5JL (@tomdf5jl.bsky.social)

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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be predominantly quiet. Solar activity is low, as is the probability of moderate levels (M 20% X 01% Proton 01%). HF conditions will remain moderate to good. Some disturbances are expected on Friday. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

05.03.2026 06:01 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Regardless of a small coronal hole, geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled, with the probability of some active periods. Solar activity is low, increasing due to new sunspots (M 25% X 05% Proton 01%). HF conditions remain moderate to good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

04.03.2026 06:05 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is predominantly quiet, becoming unsettled later in the evening. Solar activity is low, but isolated M-flares are possible (M 30% X 05% Proton 01%). HF conditions are partly good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

03.03.2026 05:33 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is predominantly quiet, but isolated active intervals are still possible. Low to moderate solar activity is expected, with the possibility of isolated M-flares (M 25% X 05% Proton 01%). Moderate to good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

02.03.2026 05:54 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is predominantly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active intervals on Sunday (=> coronal hole). Solar activity is low, with the possibility of isolated M-flares (M 25% X 05% Proton 01%). Moderate to good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

28.02.2026 06:34 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled, isolated active intervals are possible. Solar activity is low to moderate, and is expected so to continue. Isolated M-flares are possible (M 25% X 05% Proton 01%). Moderate to good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

27.02.2026 07:17 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Ex AR 4366 is back ...

... now as AR 4378. It has weakened significantly in recent days, but will nevertheless boost solar activity again. Behind it comes the old 4368, which will appear on Saturday and currently looks even more potent. (Credit: SDO/NASA) #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

26.02.2026 06:36 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Solar activity is moderate (M2.3 25/1559 UTC) and expected to continue (M 50% X 05% Proton 01%). Geomagnetic activity is mostly quiet to unsettled, with the possibility of further active intervals. Mostly moderate, partly good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

26.02.2026 06:33 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - No significant flares have been observed in the last 24 hours, and there is only a very low probability of M-class flares (M 10% X 01% Proton 01%). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to active (Kp 2-4). Moderate HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

24.02.2026 05:47 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - No spots on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is low (M 05% X 01% Proton 01%). Geomagnetic activity is expected to be unstable to slightly stormy (Kp 3-5), with isolated stronger periods (Kp 6) possible. Moderate, partly good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

23.02.2026 05:04 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled, with the possibility of further active periods. Three sunspots, low solar activity, i.e., low probability of M-flares (M 10% X 01% Proton 01%). Mostly moderate HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

21.02.2026 06:33 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity will be mainly quiet to unsettled in the coming days. Low solar activity is likely to persist, with a very low probability of an M flare (M 10% X 01% Proton 01%). We expect moderate to occasionally good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

20.02.2026 08:47 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Currently we have predominantly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity, with active to stormy periods when CME effects occur. Solar activity remains low (M 10% X 01% Proton 01%). Mixed HF conditions, no significant change. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

19.02.2026 05:25 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
FT2: New Ultra-Fast Digital Mode Tested on HF Italian testers launch FT2: a WSJT-X fork targeting 3.8-second cycles.

FT2 - 2 times faster than FT4, four times faster than FT8 - the next hot shit? www.dxzone.com/ft2-new-ultr... #hamradio #hamr

18.02.2026 21:02 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is unsettled to active, with the possibility of further isolated minor G1 storms. Solar activity is low, with little change in sight (M 10% X 01% Proton 01%). Mixed HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

17.02.2026 05:49 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is unsettled to active (Kp 3-4), with isolated stormy periods possible due to coronal winds and CME effects. Solar activity is moderate (M2.47 16/0437 UTC) with little chance of further eruptions (M 05% X 01% Proton 01%). #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

16.02.2026 07:21 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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On Valentine’s Day a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) hit Earth, causing a G1 geomagnetic storm and bright high-latitude auroras; CIRs form when faster solar wind overtakes slower streams, creating shock-like structures similar to CMEs.
(Image credit: NASA) #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

15.02.2026 07:51 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with further active intervals. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly low, with a chance of further isolated M-flares (M 10% X 01% Proton 01%). Mostly moderate HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

14.02.2026 06:05 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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US stations on 5 MHz

As of FEB 13, 2026, US amateur radio operators have access to a new 15 kHz wide segment in the 60-m band - 5,351.5 to 5,366.5 kHz. The segment is intended for use with a max. permissible power of 9.15 watts ERP (or 15 watts EIRP) and a bandwidth of 2.8 kHz. #hamradio #hamr

13.02.2026 23:33 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is quiet to unsettled, but the day (UTC) will start with isolated active phases. Solar activity is low (M 10% X 05 proton 01%), as AR 4366 moves toward the far side of the sun. Moderate, later partly good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

13.02.2026 06:03 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a low probability of further active intervals. The probability of further M-flares decreases during the day as AR4366 slowly disappears (M 15% X 10% Proton 05%). Mainly good condx. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

12.02.2026 06:26 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Apart from active intervals caused by a coronal hole, geomagnetic activity is mostly quiet. Solar activity is moderate, with further M-flares likely, perhaps even a single X-flare (M 65%, X 25%, proton 25%). Moderate to good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

11.02.2026 19:08 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled over the next 72 hrs. Solar activity is moderate, with more M-flares expected, and a possibility of an X-flare from AR4366 (M 65% X 25% Proton 25%). Moderate to good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

10.02.2026 05:41 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually increase to a Kp of 2-4. Solar activity is moderate, with four M-class flares within the last 24 hours. Further flare eruptions are expected (M 65% X 25% Proton 25%). HF conditions are mostly good. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

09.02.2026 07:26 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity is quiet, with the possibility of isolated active periods during the night from Saturday to Sunday. Solar activity is low, however with an increased risk of flares (M 80% X 35% Proton 25%). Mostly good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

07.02.2026 08:17 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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HF #Propagation Report - With geomagnetic activity largely quiet, fast solar winds are causing isolated active intervals. Solar activity is elevated, with numerous M-flares from AR4366. Further M-flares are expected (M 80%, X 35%, Proton 25%). Moderate HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

06.02.2026 20:08 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Tonight, geomagnetic conditions could once again become critical due to CME effects. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

05.02.2026 20:02 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Not every sunspot group produces flares (solar eruptions). Only a few produce a single X-flare during their lifetime. This week, the active spot region AR4366 was responsible for six X-flares. What else might be in store? (Credit: solen.info; edited by DF5JL) #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

05.02.2026 18:38 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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HF #Propagation Report - Geomagnetic activity will initially be quiet, later becoming unstable to stormy by CME arrival. Solar activity is high (X1.5 03/1408 UTC). Moderate to high activity is expected to continue (M 80% X 40% Proton 30%). Good HF conditions. #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

04.02.2026 05:14 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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X1.5 1408 UTC (GOES/SWPC/NOAA) #spaceweather #hamradio #hamr

03.02.2026 15:33 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0