ECFR Geoeconomics and Tech

Russia is main beneficiary of Iran war-fuelled spike in oil prices
• Rise in crude prices gives Kremlin breathing room after recent slump in oil revenues
• Yet Moscow could struggle to boost exports amid drone attacks in Black Sea ports & sea ice in Baltic terminals
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The electric endgame: Europe’s clean path out of vassalage – European Council on Foreign Relations The geoeconomic power of the future will be shaped by climate policy. Countries that play the right moves in regulation, clean-tech production and climate finan

The geoeconomic power of the future will be shaped by climate policy. Countries that play the right moves in regulation, clean-tech production & climate finance today will win in the electrified world of tomorrow. @alberto-rizzi.bsky.social @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social
ecfr.eu/publication/...

👥 Participan @jitorreblanca.bsky.social, Senior Adviser & Distinguised Policy Fellow en @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social, y José M. de Areilza Carvajal, Secretario General de ASPEN Spain @aspendigital.bsky.social

👉🏽 Estará moderada por Ignacio Gomá Garcés, socio de Asuntos Públicos en Kreab España

Capability club: How the EU can lead the fight for AI middle powers – European Council on Foreign Relations India’s AI Impact Summit is an opportunity for the EU to seek new partnerships with other middle powers on AI development and infrastructure

📱 «CLUB DE CAPACIDADES: CÓMO LA UE PUEDE LIDERAR LA LUCHA POR LAS POTENCIAS MEDIAS EN IA»

📝 @giorgosverdi.bsky.social [ @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social ]

🫱🏻‍🫲🏾 Debe aliarse con potencias medias ante 🇺🇸-🇨🇳, con oportunidad en la Cumbre de Impacto de la IA de la 🇮🇳

🔗 Léelo aquí ⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/capa...

Calling Paris and Washington: Three areas for G7-G20 collaboration in 2026 – European Council on Foreign Relations France’s G7 presidency coincides with an American-led G20. Paris will not find it easy to collaborate with the Trump administration, but it can still find meani

As France starts its G7 presidency, collaboration with the US G20 presidency won't be smooth sailing - yet not hope is lost and as I argue for @ecfr.eu the French may yet find a willing partner in the US in three areas: economic security, development aid and critical minerals
ecfr.eu/article/call...

Odds of a mining bonanza in Greenland are abysmally low
• Getting mine running in Arctic can cost 2-3 times as much as equivalent project at lower latitudes
• Island’s two big rare-earth projects have been plagued by difficulties and have yet to start operations
www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Agriculture is only a tiny part of EU-Mercosur free-trade agreement
• EU tariff cuts on Mercosur-made meat will apply only to small share of European imports
• Real economic rationale of deal could lie in industrial and services trade, as well as mineral products
www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

Keep ice cool: How Europeans should respond to Trump’s Greenland tariff threats  – European Council on Foreign Relations Rather than panicking or posturing, European leaders should prioritise EU unity, pinpoint their leverage and consider buying time

Europe has no good options to respond to Trump's tariff threats over Greenland - in my latest for @ecfr.eu I outline five principles that Brussels and EU capitals may want to keep in mind when sketching out next steps (spoiler: ditch moot threats and focus on services trade)
ecfr.eu/article/keep...

Keep ice cool: How Europeans should respond to Trump’s Greenland tariff threats  – European Council on Foreign Relations Rather than panicking or posturing, European leaders should prioritise EU unity, pinpoint their leverage and consider buying time

"Trump could conceivably change his mind over the urgency of the Greenland issue at any moment", writes @agathedemarais.com. Here are five principles European policymakers should keep in mind as they respond to Trump’s threats.
@ecfrpower.bsky.social @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4a2xnwh

Trump’s Three Options to Turn the Screws on Europe As the trade imbalance widens, European leaders need to prepare for likely retaliation.

The US now records its largest goods trade deficit with the EU, not China - paving the way for (more) transatlantic rows
In my latest column for @foreignpolicy.com I outline three wild cards for US-EU ties in 2026: the fate of the US dollar, defence expenses and US-Russia business deals

Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves.

What can we make of the EU decision to issue a €90bn loan to Ukraine - without tapping into Russia's immobilised reserves? In my latest piece for @ecfr.eu I outline seven takeaways from the decision and why there is (much) more to it than meets the eye [Thread - 1/9]
ecfr.eu/article/seve...

Seven things to know about the EU’s €90bn loan to Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations Ukraine receives a vital lifeline, but it is not coming from immobilised Russian reserves.

Sieben Dinge, die man über den 90 Milliarden-Kredit für die Ukraine wissen sollte - @agathedemarais.bsky.social (@ecfrgeotech.bsky.social) dröselt die Entscheidung des Europäischen Rates auf
ecfr.eu/article/seve...

6 Trump Lessons for Global Leaders in 2026 FP columnists on how the world could handle the new Washington.

"One word best captures the grim strategic calculus the U.S. allies now confront: porcupine. ", writes @jamescrabtree.bsky.social, a visiting fellow of ECFR in the @foreignpolicy.com @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social

Read the full text here:
https://bit.ly/49hSV6D

The EU’s Playbook for Trump One of six FP columnists on how the world could handle the new Washington in 2026.

"In 2026 European leaders will have ample opportunity to refine their playbook for managing Trump.", writes @agathedemarais.bsky.social, a senior policy fellow on geoeconomics and Tech, in the @foreignpolicy.com. Read the full text @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social

https://bit.ly/3YQEaml

Europe must urgently build an independent “EuroStack”of critical technologies — or risk foreign powers weaponising its digital dependencies, argues @giorgosverdi.bsky.social in a new report out today. A 🧵

Time to get over your X, Europe! Our new policy brief from @giorgosverdi.bsky.social warns that the European Union must urgently develop an independent “EuroStack” of critical technologies to solve the reliance from American tech. @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/48ZLCBA

Understanding the EU’s new economic security playbook The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk…

What to make of the EU's latest economic security proposals

A few thoughts for @ecfr.eu

ecfr.eu/article/unde...

Understanding the EU’s new economic security playbook The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk…

The EU’s new economic security communication is a step in the right direction. If Europe wants to be a geoeconomic actor instead of a mere geoeconomic battleground, it must evolve from being a risk manager and become a power broker, writes @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social

https://bit.ly/446JjKc

Thrown under the omnibus: How the EU’s digital deregulation fuels US coercion The EU has proposed simplifying and softening its digital regulation. This will only make the bloc more vulnerable to the coercion of America’s big tech firms.

1/ The new “digital omnibus package” presented on 24 November aims to simplify EU digital rules — but what looks like deregulation may actually hand power to US Big Tech and expose Europe to coercion.  ecfr.eu/article/thro...

Così Putin vuole bloccare i fondi per l'Ucraina. Le esche e le trappole del Cremlino: «Altrimenti Kiev potrebbe resistere altri 2 anni» I beni russi bloccati dai Paesi del G7 sono circa 300 miliardi di dollari, e tre quarti sono in Europa. Con i 140 miliardi di euro promessi dall'Ue Kiev potrebbe resistere per altri due anni. Per…

🇺🇦 "Trump potrebbe ricorrere a minacce sui dazi contro l’UE per sbloccare gli asset russi congelati" Il commento di @agathedemarais.bsky.social, Direttrice di @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social e Senior Policy Fellow, al Corriere della Sera
👇

📣Join us in Berlin next Tuesday to discuss Europe's response to Trumponomics with @agathedemarais.bsky.social!

Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...

Feels like the strategic autonomy debate all over again these days: endless scoping, definitions, etymology debates.

Let's just focus on solving a threat: Call an emergency on REEs, put all possible trade and security (3Ps) on the table, see how each could help solve the emergency, and go implement

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it Europe’s solar boom has quietly handed Beijing remote access to hundreds of gigawatts of its power capacity. Without a 5G-type toolbox banning untrustworthy suppliers of inverters and other grid…

How China could crash Europe’s energy grid and what the EU can do about it | @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social @ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/article/how-...

US claims over Russian frozen assets amount to just US$5bn, or 1.5% of global total
• Data show how US plans to grab US$300bn in Russian assets for US firms and government's benefit make no sense
• Belgium holds the bulk of Russian assets (through Euroclear), giving EU leverage in US-Russia talks

A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics | ECFR Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to

What are Trump's plans in the trade, investment and financial spheres, and what do US policies mean for Europe? Join us on Tuesday in Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social around tea to discuss these topics - more info and registration 🫖 🍵 👇 @ecfrgeotech.bsky.social

A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics | ECFR Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to

What are Trump's plans in the trade (tariffs), investment (decoupling) and financial (US dollar depreciation) spheres, and what do US policies mean for Europe? Join us next Tuesday in Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social to discuss these topics - more info and registration 👇

It would be lovely to see you!

The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.

On Russia’s frozen assets, Europeans have a clear choice: use their biggest leverage to back Ukraine and shape the U.S.–Russia plan, or let Washington seize the money for the benefit of both the U.S. and Russia, argues @agathedemarais.bsky.social
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...

The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.

The fate of the U.S.-Russia plan hinges on the EU’s ability to swiftly seize Russia’s frozen assets, writes columnist @agathedemarais.bsky.social.

A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable…

🫖Join us for tea in Berlin on 2 December to discuss how Europeans can sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics together with @agathedemarais.bsky.social and @jpuglierin.bsky.social.

📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...