Franz-Stefan Gady

Destroy Iran's military capabilities in 2026, and you may not be able to execute your preferred warfighting concept in a great power conflict in Europe or Asia for a couple of years. From a pure military capabilities perspective, this is bad news for conventional deterrence.

This US-Israeli raiding approach to warfare, if it continues at the current operational tempo for weeks, could draw down INDOPACOM & EUCOM stocks that will take many years to replenish, further weakening US military readiness.

A short- to mid-term military risk isn't the US running out of interceptors or PGMs in this conflict per se. It is the opportunity costs.

Strike-as-strategy ≠ a comprehensive theory of success for favorable war termination.

Given the lack of a ground component in this campaign, this assessment would apply exclusively to long-range strike drones and air defenses for the time being.

…— because NATO/US would fight differently, i.e. first and foremost establish air superiority, which would operationally reduce the tactical impact of drones significantly — now have an opportunity to test that assumption in real time as the strike campaign against Iran unfolds.

Those who have argued that in Ukraine two degraded Soviet-era armies are fighting each other, and that their experience in unmanned warfare has limited relevance for our doctrine, force structure, and design…

Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Are Racing the Clock The attackers seek quick success as their air defenses dwindle. Iran will try to drag it out.

New piece in @foreignpolicy.com with @amosfox.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/02/i...

This is partly due to the widespread assumption of MDO planners that decapitation strikes at the outset of such a campaign can lead to the relatively rapid collapse of enemy resistance. There is no plan B if this does not happen, except to continue striking targets.

Theoretical constructs such as Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) widen, rather than narrow, the gap between the tactical, military level of warfare and the strategic, political one.

France offers to station nuclear weapons across Europe for the first time President Emmanuel Macron lays out nuclear doctrine of ‘forward deterrence’

‚Emmanuel Macron has said France has offered to temporarily move nuclear warheads to allied European countries for the first time, as he pledged to increase the size of the country’s arsenal.‘ giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

The US, Israel, and its allies counter with left-of-launch strikes aimed at destroying missiles, launchers, support elements, and C2 nodes as quickly as possible.

It’s a race for and against time in the Middle East: Iran is pursuing an attritional approach by attempting to saturate air defenses, hoping to deplete interceptor stocks.

Why Mechanized Warfare Will Still Be Decisive in the Next Land War Mechanized warfare is not dead. Observers have been debating this topic since the Ukrainian military and volunteers beat back the Russian assault on Kiev

“Old doctrine assumes maneuver is the default way to fight. Future doctrine should treat it as a rare, deliberate act that is planned, resourced, and protected.” warontherocks.com/2026/01/why-...

Any strike campaign in the Middle East employing precision-guided munitions will be shaped by the United States’ and Israel’s interceptor stockpiles and magazine depth. As Amos Fox and I like to say, you may not be interested in attrition, but attrition is interested in you.

And the idea that indecisive warfare is uniquely modern ignores e.g., large swathes of the 16th to 18th century like the Eighty Years’ War, the Thirty Years’ War, the Wars of Louis XIV, and the War of the Spanish Succession.

„ineffectiveness of war?“ —Ethiopia reconquered Tigray. Azerbaijan erased Nagorno-Karabakh in one swift offensive.

‘Crisis of his own making’: Donald Trump weighs another war with Iran The US military build-up was designed to coerce Tehran — but has failed

‚Israeli intelligence has concluded that… the US has military capacity to sustain just a four- to five-day intense aerial assault, or a week of lower-intensity strikes, an Israeli intelligence official told the FT.‘
giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

These Ukrainians Don’t Want to Be Traded to Russia for Peace

These Ukrainians Don’t Want to Be Traded to Russia for Peace www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/w...

Vier Jahre Ukraine-Krieg: Strategien der Erschöpfung Analyse von Franz-Stefan Gady. Im fünften Kriegsjahr hofft Kiew darauf, dass Russland die Verluste nicht mehr auffüllen kann. Der Kreml baut auf Trump.

Vier Jahre Ukraine-Krieg: Strategien der Erschöpfung
www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/auss...

Ukraine-Krieg: Militärexperte über die Lage an der Front | Leben in Kiew | Merz in China Karina Mößbauer präsentiert das Pioneer Briefing.

Heute Morgen zu Gast im ‘The Pioneer’ Podcast, um über die Lage an der Front in der Ukraine zu sprechen.

www.thepioneer.de/originals/th...

A Worrying Military Build-up in the Western Balkans? Europe’s most fragile region is not sleepwalking toward war, but it is quietly recalibrating for it. Across the Western Balkans, military procurement

A Worrying Military Build-up in the Western Balkans? warontherocks.com/2026/02/a-wo...

Iran agreed secret shoulder-fired missile deal with Russia Leaks reveal €500mn contract for man-portable ‘Verba’ system to rebuild Tehran’s air defences

‚Iran agreed a secret €500mn arms deal with Russia to acquire thousands of advanced shoulder-fired missiles in its most significant effort to rebuild air defences shattered during last year’s war with Israel.‘ giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Final Pieces Moving Into Place For Potential Attack On Iran The latest flurry of U.S. assets heading to the Middle East includes many of the missing capabilities needed for a sustained air campaign.

Final Pieces Moving Into Place For Potential Attack On Iran

www.twz.com/news-feature...

This looks like one of the largest buildups of U.S. air power and precision strike capabilities in the Middle East in over 2 decades.

Winter has grounded Ukraine's interceptor drones, gutting Kyiv's air defense From his base near the hotly contested town of Kostiantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, Vladyslav has, by his own estimates, downed upwards of 60 Russian drones using Ukrainian interceptor drones over the past...

Winter has grounded Ukraine's interceptor drones, gutting Kyiv's air defense

kyivindependent.com/winter-has-g...

Ukrainian infantry fight to survive on the Pokrovsk front as Russia closes in DONETSK OBLAST — Walking through the mine-infested field under intense Russian drone surveillance was the scariest part of the mission for 22-year-old infantryman Mykola. "If you stop, you die," said...

Ukrainian infantry fight to survive on the Pokrovsk front as Russia closes in kyivindependent.com/if-you-stop-...

Warum führen Menschen Kriege? | MO | 16 02 2026 | 9:05 Das tötende Tier

Warum führen Menschen Kriege?

oe1.orf.at/programm/202...

Ukraine’s War of Endurance The fight for advantage in the conflict’s fifth year.

„Although Ukraine faces challenges, time is less & less on 🇷🇺 ’s side, however much Moscow portrays the situation otherwise. Moscow cannot wish away the fundamental mismatch between the military means it has available & the political aims it seeks to achieve.“ www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukrai...

Militärexperte Gady: Meint es die Regierung ernst, uns militärisch schützen zu wollen? Die letzten Regierungen haben viel ins Heer investiert. Doch es gibt noch immer keinen Konsens, den Grundwehrdienst zu verlängern. Ein Versäumnis in Sachen Sicherheit.

Meint es die Regierung ernst, uns militärisch schützen zu wollen?

www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/auss...