Eva J. Koulouriotis | إيفا كولوريوتي

Diplomacy as a Prelude to War: The Strategic Chess Game Between Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran While Egyptian officials are intensifying their communications with the Lebanese state, the latest of which was an emergency visit by the head of Egyptian intelligence, Hassan Rashad, to Beirut to mee...

A geopolitical and military analysis of the diplomatic and war options on the Lebanese-Israeli border.

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more seriously, even if it leads to days of fighting. Between war and diplomacy, the Lebanese arena appears poised to dominate news headlines in the coming period.

to Beirut to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to seek diplomatic solutions for the Lebanese-Israeli conflict, Israeli media and officials, most notably Netanyahu, are increasingly asserting that Hezbollah remains a threat to Israeli security and that this danger must be addressed

Diplomacy as a Prelude to War: The Strategic Chess Game Between Hezbollah, Israel, and Iran

While Egyptian officials are intensifying their communications with the Lebanese state, the latest of which was an emergency visit by the head of Egyptian intelligence, Hassan Rashad,

Syria After Assad: Governance, Security, and Diplomacy in Post-War Syria Analyzing Al-Sharaa’s Emerging Strategy

Al-Sharaa, whom many agree that bases his international policy on openness and rapprochement with America, is visiting Russia at this time. A reading of the domestic, regional and international Syrian scene.

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This visit comes at a timing that many observers consider confusing: Washington is seriously considering supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, while Trump declares that Putin does not want to stop the war.

Syria After Assad: Governance, Security, and Diplomacy in Post-War Syria Analyzing Al-Sharaa’s Emerging Strategy

Syria After Assad: Governance, Security, and Diplomacy in Post-War Syria

Analyzing Al-Sharaa’s Emerging Strategy

On his first visit to Moscow, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa appeared composed and ready to open a new page in Syrian-Russian relations.

case scenario in Lebanon. This fall will be as decisive for Hezbollah and Lebanon as the previous one. It will either mark the end of the Iranian project in Lebanon and then Iraq, or the beginning of a new civil war, or a new war along the Lebanese-Israeli border.
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of returning to war is still on Netanyahu's table. As for the Arab world, Saudi Arabia is pushing to end Hezbollah, which is the most important supporter of the Houthi militia in Yemen, while working to support the new Syrian administration in Damascus in preparation for the worst-

Meanwhile, in Washington, the Lebanese file may become less important if the Lebanese government retreats, and the option of an economic sanctions and state isolation may be their pressure card. In Israel, officials are cautiously monitoring the Lebanese front, and the option

step will have a high price. In contrast, Hezbollah, for internal, religious, and Iranian reasons, has no room to give up its weapons, no matter the price. This reality means that one of the two parties will have to back down, with a high cost, or a clash is inevitable.

The bottom line: Lebanon stands today at a crossroads walking on the brink of a civil war that will be more violent than any before. The Lebanese government has no choice but to move forward with the decision to rebuild the state by withdrawing illegal weapons. Backing down from this

Scenario Six: The Lebanese army rushes to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons, and Hezbollah responds with military force, sparking a new civil war in Lebanon.

By doing so, Hezbollah avoids confrontation with the Lebanese government and instead engages in a limited war with Israel that ends with an agreement.

Scenario Five: Hezbollah chooses to confront Israel by launching a surprise attack similar to the events of the July 2006 war, attempting to capture Israeli soldiers.

This would mean a confrontation between the Lebanese army and Lebanon's Shia, posing a threat to Lebanon's unity and forcing the Lebanese state to back down from its decision to confront Hezbollah.

Scenario Four: The Lebanese army would launch a military attack on Hezbollah, leading to a Shia uprising in which the Amal Movement, led by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, would participate, in a manner similar to the events of February 6, 1984.

Scenario Three: The Lebanese army will begin implementing the decision, leading to a military confrontation with Hezbollah that will result in casualties on both sides, prompting the Lebanese government to back down from its decision in order to avoid civil war.

Thus, in order to avoid such an outcome, the Lebanese army leaders might reject the Lebanese government’s decision.

split in 1975 under the leadership of First Lieutenant Ahmed Al-Khatib after the Shia in the Lebanese army refused orders to confront members of their own sect. This incident has recently been reminded to the Lebanese government by individuals close to Hezbollah.

Scenario Two: The Lebanese army rejects the decision to engage in a military confrontation with Hezbollah, considering that this step might lead to a civil war and cause divisions within the Lebanese army itself. Looking back at Lebanon’s civil war, a part of the Lebanese army

This means that the Lebanese army will be forced to enter a military confrontation with the Palestinian militias in the camps, given their refusal to surrender their weapons. The army’s failure to take this step will mean that it will be unable to withdraw Hezbollah’s weapons.

Scenario One: Hezbollah will continue to refuse to implement the decision and surrender its weapons, conditioning this on the prior disarmament of the Palestinian camps in order to buy time.

north of the Awali River, then the Bekaa, and finally Beirut. This plan is theoretical. What are the scenarios we might witness in the next phase?

It is likely that the plan will be based on a geographical division of the operation, starting with the area south of the Litani River, which Hezbollah has agreed to evacuate, then the area between the Litani and Awali Rivers, then

Now what's the next step? The Lebanese government has asked the army to develop a practical plan to confiscate illegal weapons in Lebanon, especially Hezbollah's arsenal.

a plan to strike northern Israel as a means of evading the decision to disarm. On the other hand, the Israeli government knows that ensuring Hezbollah does not remain a militia in Lebanon is directly linked to any military plan that is put in place to confront Iran in the next round of conflict.

Therefore, the Israeli officials who made the mistake of accepting the ceasefire agreement will have to carefully monitor the internal scene in Lebanon. When Hezbollah faced internal pressure after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, it attacked Israel in the 2006 July war. Hezbollah may have

able to reorganize its ranks and restore its military capabilities, the truth is that Hezbollah is no longer what it was, but on the other hand, it has not ended and is capable of harming Israel and threatening its security.

If the Assad regime had remained in Syria to this day, Hezbollah would have been able to significantly restore its military capabilities, and Israel would have had to fight a new, more difficult war. Today, however, it can be said that Hezbollah, despite its officials' assertions that it has been