Bark

theres no reason to have shame about being biased here

ok, but i dont know how else you could transcribe that

thank you was looking for this yday

george w bush didnt, do you sincerely believe kamala harris is more of warmonger than him?

Donald trump wanting to use the war to demonstrate his strength feels plausible in the abstract

It feels undermined by the fact that he couldnt go one press conference about the war, 3 days in, without deciding actually curtains were more important to talk about

of all the unplausible headlines to show someone in the past this has to be one of the least plausible

having subforums for every niche is great, but the upvote downvote system is terrible

and the time decay on active posts being on the front page of the subreddit is not great but maybe required at the several hundred k user per subreddit scale

i feel like this is natural with all of its success basically being replicating twitter dynamics too though

the number of people doing anything interesting with unique to atproto features is so close to 0, but maybe there will randomly be one hit app that changes that

they didnt end up doing that plan, and even in the plan they were just doing it to try to manufacture consent domestically not because of any real influence on the path they were taking

is there a good source on bahrain shooting protestors? This is the first ive seen that escalation

Trying to look both here on twitter but finding a lot of the same video i already saw last night that might also be from 2011 and i cant confirm

i think this is right

you can go oopsie over a few hundred dead troops and civilians and go to talks

you cant undo destroying a plant that takes multiple years to rebuild even in peacetime

ill lay down a prediction julie johnson wins

i think thats perfectly reasonable

I wouldnt make a claims based on numbers regarding age with vibesed out numbers though then!

we all agree here platner should not be senator, but why result to a bad or at worst, disingenuous, argument when plenty of good ones exist

So do i, i just also think misrepresenting the numbers about age is bad

i dont think youre conspiring against me spefically, because youre doing it again here lmao, i think its a pattern you demonstrate in a lot of conversations (which i see because i follow you because you often do have good takes!)

man i would believe you i certainly miss things and my posts are full of typos from barely paying attention, but this isnt even the first time youve done exactly this in a conversation with me!

Having some numbers, even if they're approximations with known flaws, is better than just vibesing the numbers!

You made a specific numerical claim based on vibes with made up numbers!

And certainly the SSA table is valid for the hypothetical you made up in the last reply

You understand how this platform has a character limit per post right! i know you can see both of these in your notifications, your choice to ignore the second one because i dont end every post with

FURTHERMORE PLATNER MUST BE DESTROYED

like cato the elder is extremely disingenuous!

yea if i had to put money on it, assuming both die of naturalish causes id bet platner dies a decade or more younger than her he obviously makes lots of terrible decisions

but idk anything about mills potential comorbidities so trying to adjust for only one is just thumbing the scale imo

janet mills is 78 as of december, and will be 79 when she takes office in January 2027

i also dont think maine should have re elected angus king for both age and ideological reasons

I unfortunately dont have access to extremely detailed tables for all sorts of life style factors so this is obviously just an approximation

also actuarial tables are purely statistical, either could get slammed with a car any day and die suddenly

the likelihood of mills dying in office vs platner based on ssa actuarial tables?? the one from the very post you replied to

bsky.app/profile/smor...

And obviously given that i said i dont think its reason to vote for platner over mills, obviously i think the factor of 28 is also negligible in comparison to sufficiently large ideological differences (such as at least appearing to be a nazi) too!

Like my reply where i said "None of this is a reason to vote for [platner] over her" was sitting there for 5 minutes before you replied!

But just to engage anyways, i think the factor of 2.5 between a 42 yr old and 50 yr old candidate is small enough to be negligible compared to ideological diffs

no i wouldnt prefer platner at all, not even over mills now as i explicitly??

You follow me and i follow you, you have good takes often but its crazy how for someone who regularly calls out people being illiterate you choose to take a maximally bad faith reading over any disagreement!

I think those are pretty significant multipliers even if the chance for mills is only 3.7% still

None of this is a reason to vote for the guy who is somewhere between an oblivious manipulatable moron and a committed nazi over her though

platner isnt 50 he'll be 42 and mills 79

based on the SSA table she's 28x more likely to die in office than he is, she'd also be 11x more likely than the hypothetical 50 yr old man

(of course being senator removes you from being normal and both are less likely than the SSA table would suggest)

mills increased likelihood of dying in office is honestly a plus for voting for her over platner in this case

idk i do wonder why candidates dont just declare earlier, like this is a problem that is solved by simply translating the timeline

i guess voters that arent very engaged wont be tapped in to a fall 2025 debate for a 2026 congressional race is a real issue