Logan Giles

W

DCA failed to hit 35˚F yesterday, and is not forecasted to do so through at least Thanksgiving, although there will be close calls. This means there should be the third longest streak above 35, and third latest 35 degree day on record

Yea think 850s were decently cold too

It definitely looks like it. Will see what CLI has

If DCA manages a trace of snow tomorrow, it would be the earliest trace since November 15, 2018. Since 1990, only three years have seen first snow in November (1995, 1996, 2018)

This phase traditionally results in warmer weather for the eastern US, and history shows us this relationship is significant. CPC also agrees on this assessment for Thanksgiving. This has been the second warmest fall on record, and will likely end warm.

A second piece we look at is the MJO. While it is not the single most important long term forecast tool, it is pretty important. It will be located over Oceania/West Pacific. If you look at when the first active pattern is, maybe in a few weeks.

Storm tracks usually like to hug the gradient from warm and cold, so maybe central US *could* have a storm track, but ten days out so not worth discussing. What we do know is even though the forecast period is many days away, the seeds that will be planted are closer in time.

Look what happens a few days after we see the high over Asia, the jet retracts. As we see in the western US, a trough forms which will bring in cooler air. While in the east, a fairly potent ridge forms. This will bring in warmer air from the south.

What does a retraction do? Jet stream is not allowed to spread far into the Pacific. This essentially causes the axis to be west of Hawaii. For areas west of say St. Louis, this brings colder temperatures with possible storms. For the east, warmth is likely.

Let's talk a bit about Thanksgiving and why it will be warm for the eastern US, there is a few reasons. First is we look at Eurasian weather. History tells us when there is high pressure near Kazakhstan, a jet stream retraction will occur. Good graph from @webberweather.bsky.social below

Yep! After it being rather mild and dry the last month it’ll be a surprise absolutely

Wouldn't be surprised to see flakes flying NW of 95 Friday morning. String vortmax and subfreezing temperatures a mile up/surface will help produce flakes. Likely no accumulation, but should see snow falling in areas like Hagerstown and Cumberland

NWS is forecasting a low of 34 on Thursday. If that happens, it would break what will be the 4th longest streak above 35˚F. It would also be the 6th latest day at 35˚F on record

Fortunately I reloaded on camera gear in spring but maybe a drone

All young people too

Giving me vibes on three very significant storms for that region

Looks like the rain drought will end Sunday for DC

Did you get to the end yet

Not missing much I see while in FL

NEW RECORD

No rain was measured today which means 2024 will set the record for consecutive days without measurable rain.

Finding cool work trips. Got Alaska one down

DC will set the record for consecutive days without rain today at 35. That may end tomorrow as a little bit of rain is in the forecast

Has it felt dry lately? Today is the fourth longest streak without measurable rain in Washington DC. Rain did fall this morning, but was not measurable. Looking at the forecast there might be rain Thursday. But it is looking Wednesday the record will be broken.

Today hit 82˚F which makes it the third warmest Halloween on record. Warmest in 74 years. 82 degrees today makes it the 5th warmest temperature this late in the year.

What’s snow?

The rainless streak is in serious jeopardy as a front will arrive and bring rain Friday morning.

Good point. Average snow

Has it felt like there hasn't been a lot of snow recently in Washington DC of late? You wouldn't be wrong. The last five years have been the least snowiest on record and it isn't close. For 2020-2025 to be snowier than 1997-2002 we'd need 10.8" of snow this season.