The Tennis Guy

This is the first year since 2008 that Roland Garros and Wimbledon will feature the same 2 men in each final.

2008: Federer and Nadal
2025: Alcaraz and Sinner

Men’s players that have won 80% or more of their Grand Slam matches in the 21st century:

Djokovic: 88%
Nadal: 88%
Federer: 86%
ALCARAZ: 86%
Agassi: 81%
Sampras: 81%
SINNER: 80%

Alcaraz (22) and Sinner (23) have already joined quite the exclusive club.

What heart from Carlos.

What heart and heartbreak for Jannik.

Their first ever major championship meeting will go down as one of the greatest tennis matches ever.

To think this rivalry is just getting started, can’t possibly ask for more as tennis fans.

One of my favorite stats just got an update:

Sinner’s combined record vs Djokovic, Medvedev, and Zverev through ‘23 US Open: 1-13

Sinner’s combined record vs those same 3 players since ‘23 US Open: 14-2

lol it was a little harsh. Novak’s level at 38 is remarkable.

I’m very much looking forward to his SF match with Sinner. I’m expecting a fun one.

The current tiers of men’s tennis:

Tier 1: Alcaraz and Sinner

Tier 2: A geriatric, semi-retired Novak Djokovic

Tier 3: A literal ocean of emptiness

Tier 4: Everyone else

Felt like a statement win from Alcaraz today. His level in the 2nd set was truly extraordinary.

He’s now won 4 straight matches versus Sinner.

He’ll head to Paris 15-1 (94%) on the European clay this year.

He remains the man to beat in Paris later this month.

Sinner’s 26 match winning streak will meet Alcaraz’s tour best 14-1 record on European clay for the Rome title on Sunday.

Alcaraz leads their H2H 6-4, including 3 straight victories. They are split 1-1 on clay.

Our first ever Sinner v Alcaraz Masters final. Should be a blast.

Jannik Sinner extends his winning streak to 25 matches

Within those 25 matches he is 11-0 against top 10 opponents.

Our first ever Sinner v Alcaraz Masters final looms larger than ever.

Sinner ends up winning 25/32 points in set 1 to hand Ruud his first bagel since July 2023 (Hamburg - Arthur Fils)

What an absolute insane level from Jannik Sinner to start this QF match vs Ruud

Ruud has scored just a singular point in 3 games while serving in 2/3 of the games played!

Great and wild stat

Very true. Also worth noting he was a complete menace on the clay in 2023 as well. He won both Madrid and Barcelona that year (as a 19 year old lol)

If not for the cramps in the SF against Djokovic who knows what ultimately happens that year!

Alcaraz is now 13-1 (93%) on European clay this season.

13 wins is the most wins he’s ever had in a single season on European clay heading into Paris.

Within those 13 wins he’s posted a 7-1 record against top 25 ranked foes.

Still the man to beat on clay.

Dating back to the 2024 US Open, Jannik Sinner is now 34-1 in his last 35 tour level matches.

His sets won vs sets lost ratio in his last 35 matches: 83 sets won, 9 sets lost.

He’s currently on a 23 match winning streak. He’s lost just 3 total sets in that run.

Updated ATP Ranking and Race:

Will be a 46th week at World #1 for Sinner, as Zverev returns to World #2 after just 1 week. Rune is back in the Top 10 while Ruud falls out.

Rune and Shelton back in the Race Top 8.

Reminder: Carlos is a tour best 21-2 (91%) in his last 23 matches on clay.

Assuming Carlos Alcaraz’s injury isn’t serious, I see little room for concern moving forward.

Holger Rune gets his first tour level title since Munich in 2023

He has won 4 straight matches versus top 10 opponents without dropping a set (8-0)

The tour only gets better with Holger in contention

2025 Monte Carlo draw thoughts:

Zverev’s quarter is BRUTAL. It includes:

Berrettini
Musetti
Rune
Tsitsipas

And to top it off, Djokovic is in the competing quarter.

Alcaraz has to be licking his chops. Highest seeds on his half:

Ruud
Draper
Rublev

I think he’s capable of defending these points, but it’s worth noting he’s defending career best results at Madrid, Rome, RG, Queens, and Wimbledon.

This Miami run provides some cushion.

*Fritz is actually defending a SF from Madrid last year.

Big win for Fritz. This run in Miami has been HUGE for him. Lost in the R64 here last year, so he’s picking up serious points.

He can use the points as he’s defending a lot this summer. His ‘24 summer results:👇

MC: R64
Munich: F
Madrid: QF
Rome: QF
RG: R4
Queens: QF
Eastbourne: Champ
Wimbledon: QF

Jack Draper’s loss means no man has won the Sunshine Double in 7 seasons and counting.

This is the longest drought on the men’s side since the inception of Master’s events in 1990.

Roger Federer was last to do it in 2017.

To expand on this, Rublev has lost his opening round match at 5 of the 8 tournaments he’s played this year.

He’s lost opening round of the 3 biggest tournaments of the year so far - AO, IW, and Miami.

I appreciate that!

I always feel a touch awkward replugging my own work, but if anyone is interested in this subject I did a deep dive on the average age of first time champs at the link below.

I compare men’s ages versus women’s, how the average age has changed over time, etc

open.substack.com/pub/thetenni...

I will add to this - Flavia Penneta won her first at 33 in 2015

The men have only ever had 4 first time champs aged 29 or older - Goran was the last to do it at 29 in 2001

Jack Draper Is Here To Stay Jack Draper's Indian Wells domination wasn't a fluke, he's here to stay

New blog post!

“Jack Draper Is Here To Stay”

Draper dropped a single set while defeating 4 top 15 opponents in route to his first Masters title

He’s 30-8 (79%) since the ‘24 Cincinnati Open

He’s the 4th youngest Masters champ of the 2020’s

He’s here to stay

open.substack.com/pub/thetenni...

Agreed! I think we are seeing a changing of the guard amongst the top 10, and Jack will be a new main stay.

I like Holger to get back as well, btw.

Jack Draper drops just a single set this week en route to his first Masters title (beat 3 top 15 opponents)

He’s now 20-3 (87%) in his last 23 tour level matches.

He will be #7 when the rankings drop tomorrow. Get used to seeing his name in the top 10, something tells me he’s gonna be there awhile