Kitsch Liao

Taipei holds air raid drill to prepare for Chinese attack Taipei came to a brief standstill on Thursday when air raid sirens forced people off the streets and into underground shelters in a rehearsal for a Chinese attack.

I talked to AFP abut the need to acclimate Taiwan’s population through efforts like this year’s Han Kuan Exercise

www.france24.com/en/live-news...

Video teases new Chinese blackout bomb that can knock out enemy power stations Animation shared by state broadcaster shows what appears to be graphite bomb designed to disrupt command and control systems.

PLA doctrinal writing has long talked about graphite bombs but there has rarely been public disclosure on any sort of development - would be interesting to keep an eye on

www.scmp.com/news/china/m...

China’s Long-Arm Jurisdiction and Its Implications for Taiwan - IRIS Webconference organised by IRIS. China’s use of long-arm jurisdiction, which is defined as an attempt to apply domestic laws beyond its borders, has important implications for Taiwan, especially amid ...

Please join me today at 12:30 Paris/18:30 ET to discuss China's long-arm jurisdiction and how it affects Taiwan's prospects for survival.

www.iris-france.org/en/event/chi...

Trump administration claims Chinese students ‘exploit’ U.S. universities Beijing has prioritized the return of talented Chinese studying overseas to help development in high-tech fields. But are Chinese students in the United States really a national security threat?

I talked to Wapo about the recent China student VISA ban and what lessons the case of Qian Xuesen, "the father of Chinese ICBM," can impart.

www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Trump administration claims Chinese students ‘exploit’ U.S. universities Beijing has prioritized the return of talented Chinese studying overseas to help development in high-tech fields. But are Chinese students in the United States really a national security threat?

I talked to Wapo about the recent China student VISA ban and what lessons the case of Qian Xuesen, "the father of Chinese ICBM," can impart.

www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

How America is losing its military supremacy to China Beijing’s army boasts almost a million more troops than the US and has the largest navy in the world

Chatted a bit with the Telegraph on what readiness means in manifesting military power.

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

3/ “The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting” Kundera reminded us how power can suppress memory to erase identity and control narratives - and today we are faced yet another authoritarian power wearing the red stars doing the same.

2/ The SVG fighting against Imperial Japanese forces was painted in ROCAF livery, an inconvenient fact that Xi is trying to erase by repainting the SVG I-15 exhibit within the Beijing Aviation museum from ROC markings to communist stars.

1/ Xi made it clear in his op-ed to the Russians his No.1 priority is Taiwan, that Russia and China fought 80 years ago against Fascists - but the Soviet Volunteer Group (SVG) was fighting alongside the Republic of China (now Taiwan) armed forces, and Beijing is trying to erase that.

How does your misrepresentation match up perfectly with PRC propaganda?

nd the funny part is on paper you SHOULD have enough pilots withe currency to rotate; but calcified organization and rules prevented that. WX/MX guys are waking up at 4am and going to bed past midnight - imagine having trouble convincing ppl to take the job.

They’re on “autopilot” - pun intended; Jack of all trades and master of none.

The fundamental problems is still a startling lack of operational and strategic planning capacity - and most importantly - no higher level strategic guidance on what the air force’s role is supposed to be for decades.

Situation is much much worse for support personnel whether you’re maintenance or weather; low morale long hours is a given - and since China start crossing the mid-line, an instructor told me his USAF colleague jokingly called him “7-11” - since they’re on standby alert 24/7 and 365 days a year.

They were also the most visible branch and with a pretty good tally when pinned against PLAAF. But under the hood they suffer similar issues - even for pilots on golden path politics and patronage still dominates your career, and you simultaneously have to fly and do an ungodly amount of paper work.

It’s a bit complicated - traditionally this was CKS’ Trump card and his relationship building tool especially with the US, a lot of the politics were run through Madame Chiang. That’s why it’s also the last branch to have any visible presence of Taiwanese vs mainlanders(外省, those who came post-49)

But that’s why it’s important to empower them through transparency and support from civilian government and the public - I’m thinking of the “iron majors” in the USAF post- Vietnam; top-down management clearly didn’t work and transparency was impossible under dictator era - time for something new?

For sure - the issue of squeezing the irreplaceable mid-career officers too hard, who are doing the bulk of the work has always been a concern - that’s why they’re either getting cancer or retire in droves, or work 12 hour shifts for staff jobs and haven’t seen their family in a week.

9/ Taiwan desperately need it’s “Pentagon papers” moment so that promising junior and mid-career officers can leverage public sentiments and civilian influence and expertise to effect changes to Taiwan’s military.

8/ a civilian establishment with access can then force a change in the military’s culture; that mid-career officers who is well-educated, flexible, hard-working and innovative can survive through the ranks and overturn the existing adverse selection issues in the flag ranks.

7/ The top-line issue for Taiwan’s military reform should be a detailed requirement on disclosure and classification, so that the structure of supervision, from civilian authorities, academics, experts, and even military fans, can be armed with the necessary information.

6/This suits the military just fine, as long as military leadership superficially “kowtow” to the legislative and executive branches on symptoms of deeper issues, the military bureaucracy can continue on without much hindrance.

5/ Additionally, most administrations believe it’s not only possible but desirable to firewall defense and “military” issues behind the door of the Ministry of Defense.

4/But one does not simply reform by placing blame on the defense establishment – of which Taiwan as a society has been doing for decades at this point. Taiwan’s civilian authorities largely don't understand, and do not care about defense issues, despite paying lip service.

3/we can trace the issue as early as 1937 in German advisors’ report to CKS; which still applies to Taiwan’s military today. Thus despite occasional operational and tactical brilliance, the ROC military is largely incapable of achieving any strategic directives given by the gov.

2/ They’ve accurately diagnosed the well-known but rarely uttered issue that Taiwan military’s officer corps and Whampoo culture is at the core of all malaise from personnel shortage, public distrust of the military, to operational failures.

Taiwan’s Biggest Problem in Steeling Itself for War with China is Cultural - War on the Rocks General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly wants to prepare China for a war over Taiwan. The measures he is taking to ready its people, economy, legal system,

1/ Ahead of tomorrow’s GMU chat on Taiwan’s defense issues, I wanted to highlight this article by @MichaelHunzeker
and Yuster Yu on the root cause of Taiwan’s rather ineffective military, and share a few of my thoughts.

warontherocks.com/2025/04/taiw...

I'll be talking about Taiwan's military balance with @MichaelHunzeker and all this Friday afternoon 1630-1800 at George Mason. Everyone's welcome to stop by if free!
RSVP: tsm@gmu.edu

Taiwan Focuses on Societal Resilience and U.S. Cooperation in New Defense Review Executive Summary: Taiwan’s 2025 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) prioritizes enhancing all-of-society resilience and emphasizes U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation. The document represents a significant...

I analyzed Taiwan QDR's shift in CONOP, including 7 phases of defense and decentralized command. Using Taiwan's force planning model, I examined QDR's response to challenges and highlight Taiwan's lack of strategic integration and transparency on defense.
jamestown.org/program/taiw...

It was an absolute pleasure to be part of Sigur Center for Asian Studies' Taiwan roundtable this year alongside Professor Dean Chen and @ for the afternoon panel. Many thanks to Director @ericschluessel.bsky.social and Assistant Director for putting up this superb event.