Samuel Doveri Vesterbye's Avatar

Samuel Doveri Vesterbye

@samueljsdv.bsky.social

Director of European Neighbourhood Council | Author of Security Threats along EUโ€™s ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Eastern Flanks (Palgrave: London) | #CentralAsia #Caucasus #Tรผrkiye #MENA | Independence | Danish ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ & Italian ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ|

1,619 Followers  |  3,694 Following  |  44 Posts  |  Joined: 02.12.2024  |  2.117

Latest posts by samueljsdv.bsky.social on Bluesky

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๐Ÿ”ธIs Erdogan testing to see how Europe ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บwill act? EU needs Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท defence and Trump appears to have given green light. Most important is to watch worldโ€™s 3rd largest economy: what will Germany ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ say?

[END].

20.03.2025 13:36 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐Ÿ”ธ But, often, politicians make choices for their own short-term political survival and personal-power. Open question: how will Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท respond: seculars, youths, opposition parties, Istanbulites and business?

. . . Continued

20.03.2025 13:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ”ธUS & Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท also appear to have deep structural differences: Israel ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ& Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, Horn of Africa, Green Energy versus Gas/Oil, Egypt, Caucasus and Central Asia, China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ policy and list goes on.

Continued . . .

20.03.2025 13:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ”ธNumerically, Tรผrkiye's ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท economy, security and energy is European. This is easily demonstrated in trade, foreign investment, logistic connectivity & energy export market figures. US ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท trade is less than 6% and EU ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท trade is more than 45%.

. . . Continued

20.03.2025 13:33 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿ”ธWhy? No geo-political analyst would say otherwise. All trade figures, infrastructure, CU, electricity grid, supply chains support this.

๐Ÿ”ธโ€If ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท choose a security/economic relationship with ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US . . . it would be short-lived gain; it ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท would be shooting itself in foot.โ€

. . . Continued

20.03.2025 13:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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New ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท article by @news.dw.com is kind enough to quote my analysis.

ร‡ok teลŸekkรผrler / Danke๐Ÿ™

Topic: ฤฐmamoฤŸlu imprisonment and Erdogan reach for power & international bargaining ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‘‡

๐Ÿ”ธโ€Tรผrkiye's ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท natural choice should be Europe, where it shares a common geography.โ€

. . . Continued

20.03.2025 13:21 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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I wish I could have joined you in Rome ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Bucharest ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Belgrade ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Brussels ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Berlin ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Tbilisi ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บand many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch.

I wore my ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ jumper for a morning jog.

Viva Lโ€™Europa! ๐Ÿ™

#UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity

16.03.2025 10:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Thousands of people gathered in Bucharest, Romania to declare their solidarity with Europe and Ukraine, and to reject Russia and Trump's attempts to corrupt their democracy. #3E #RomaniaProtests

16.03.2025 04:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6795    ๐Ÿ” 1450    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 79    ๐Ÿ“Œ 58
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I wish I could have joined you in Rome ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Bucharest ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Belgrade ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Brussels ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Berlin ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ, Tbilisi ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บand many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch.

I wore my ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ jumper for a morning jog.

Viva Lโ€™Europa! ๐Ÿ™

#UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity

16.03.2025 10:35 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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#French ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท in European security architecture ๐Ÿ‘‡

Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for โ€˜Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignementโ€™๐Ÿ‘‡

cf2r.org/actualite/quelโ€ฆ

10.03.2025 17:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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. . .

Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play.

Paradoxically, EU-Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time.

Read my article (2024) about #Tรผrkiye in Europeโ€™s New Security Architecture ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...

23.02.2025 05:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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. . .

Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europeโ€™s leading powers.

Only time will tell.

What remains certain: ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท popular misconceptions about ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท and ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท should be relegated to the past.

. . . (Continued)

23.02.2025 05:21 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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. . .

Complex points of contention ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‘‡

๐Ÿ”ธAfrica influence
๐Ÿ”ธCaucasus & Central Asia
๐Ÿ”ธCustoms Union & EIB
๐Ÿ”ธSecurity, Space & Defence
๐Ÿ”ธStrategic Autonomy
๐Ÿ”ธEastern Mediterranean
๐Ÿ”ธCyprus territorial integrity
๐Ÿ”ธGreek maritime
๐Ÿ”ธNuclear Plants
๐Ÿ”ธTheology & Laicite
๐Ÿ”ธSyria
๐Ÿ”ธMigration

. . . (Continued)

23.02.2025 05:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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. . .

@EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept ErdoฤŸanโ€™s invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling.

@rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete.

. . . (Continued)

23.02.2025 05:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Franco-Turkish rapprochement.

The question is whether ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Ankara and ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทParis are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington.

. . . (Continued)

23.02.2025 05:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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No Elon Musk.

Europe does not need American ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ and Russian ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ foreign interference to make โ€œEurope Great Againโ€.

Europe needs๐Ÿ‘‡
๐Ÿ”ธ EU Unity ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ
๐Ÿ”ธ EU Defence ๐Ÿš€
๐Ÿ”ธ EU Bonds ๐Ÿ’ถ
๐Ÿ”ธ EU Nuclear โ˜ข๏ธ
๐Ÿ”ธ EU Technology & Social Media๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ”ฌ

19.01.2025 07:18 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 45    ๐Ÿ” 16    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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#Tรผrkiyeโ€™s ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท audience โคต๏ธ

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท ร‡ok teลŸekkรผrler ๐Ÿ™

Main points of Op-Ed ๐Ÿ‘‡

๐Ÿ”ธTrump ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

๐Ÿ”ธ#Nuclear France ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ & German ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ#Eurobonds to replace Washington?

. . . Continued

05.03.2025 06:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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. . . Continued

๐Ÿ”ธ#US ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ gets closer to #Russia ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ in order to fight #China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ at expense of ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europe, including Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท

๐Ÿ”ธ#Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท is an ally of Kiev ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ & must be included in ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ core European security architecture

Link ๐Ÿ”— Turkish language Hรผrriyet ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-โ€ฆ

[END].

05.03.2025 06:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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#French ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท in European security architecture ๐Ÿ‘‡

Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for โ€˜Centre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignementโ€™๐Ÿ‘‡

cf2r.org/actualite/quelโ€ฆ

10.03.2025 17:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

โ€œThe general sentiment in the EU is that Turkey is more important than ever on security cooperation. That ranges from military procurement to Ukraine, energy, critical infrastructure, you name it," said @samueljsdv.bsky.social.

My latest for @turkeyrecap.bsky.social:

25.02.2025 06:40 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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US policy shift on Ukraine boosts Turkeyโ€™s value as EU defense partner ANKARA โ€” On the third anniversary of the Russiaโ€™s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov is in Turkey and the prospects for peace talks are in limbo amid the Trump administrationโ€™s o...

As doubts grow over US defense commitments to Ukraine and the EU, Ankaraโ€™s role in regional security is likely to expand due to its existing force and weapons production capacities.

@diegocupolo.bsky.social reports with comments by @samueljsdv.bsky.social, Daria Isachenko and @yoruk.bsky.social.

24.02.2025 12:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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. . . Continued

๐Ÿ”ธ#US ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ gets closer to #Russia ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ in order to fight #China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ at expense of ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Europe, including Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท

๐Ÿ”ธ#Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท is an ally of Kiev ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ & must be included in ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ core European security architecture

Link ๐Ÿ”— Turkish language Hรผrriyet ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-โ€ฆ

[END].

05.03.2025 06:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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#Tรผrkiyeโ€™s ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท audience โคต๏ธ

๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท ร‡ok teลŸekkรผrler ๐Ÿ™

Main points of Op-Ed ๐Ÿ‘‡

๐Ÿ”ธTrump ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

๐Ÿ”ธ#Nuclear France ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ & German ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ#Eurobonds to replace Washington?

. . . Continued

05.03.2025 06:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

๐ŸŽ‡ @Turkeyrecap.bsky.social Editor @DiegoCupolo.bsky.social kindly asked me to predict EU-Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท in 2025 ๐ŸŽ‡

5-points๐Ÿ‘‡โคต๏ธ

1๏ธโƒฃ #EU-#Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท relations in 2025 are fragile and very dependent on ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Donald Trump.

. . . ๐Ÿ‘‡

12.01.2025 11:55 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 12    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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. . .

Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play.

Paradoxically, EU-Tรผrkiye ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time.

Read my article (2024) about #Tรผrkiye in Europeโ€™s New Security Architecture ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...

23.02.2025 05:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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. . .

Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europeโ€™s leading powers.

Only time will tell.

What remains certain: ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท popular misconceptions about ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท and ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท should be relegated to the past.

. . . (Continued)

23.02.2025 05:21 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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. . .

Complex points of contention ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‘‡

๐Ÿ”ธAfrica influence
๐Ÿ”ธCaucasus & Central Asia
๐Ÿ”ธCustoms Union & EIB
๐Ÿ”ธSecurity, Space & Defence
๐Ÿ”ธStrategic Autonomy
๐Ÿ”ธEastern Mediterranean
๐Ÿ”ธCyprus territorial integrity
๐Ÿ”ธGreek maritime
๐Ÿ”ธNuclear Plants
๐Ÿ”ธTheology & Laicite
๐Ÿ”ธSyria
๐Ÿ”ธMigration

. . . (Continued)

23.02.2025 05:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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. . .

@EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept ErdoฤŸanโ€™s invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling.

@rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete.

. . . (Continued)

23.02.2025 05:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Franco-Turkish rapprochement.

The question is whether ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Ankara and ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทParis are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington.

. . . (Continued)

23.02.2025 05:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

@samueljsdv is following 20 prominent accounts