๐ธIs Erdogan testing to see how Europe ๐ช๐บwill act? EU needs Tรผrkiye ๐น๐ท defence and Trump appears to have given green light. Most important is to watch worldโs 3rd largest economy: what will Germany ๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐บ say?
[END].
@samueljsdv.bsky.social
Director of European Neighbourhood Council | Author of Security Threats along EUโs ๐ช๐บ Eastern Flanks (Palgrave: London) | #CentralAsia #Caucasus #Tรผrkiye #MENA | Independence | Danish ๐ฉ๐ฐ๐ช๐บ & Italian ๐ฎ๐น๐ช๐บ|
๐ธIs Erdogan testing to see how Europe ๐ช๐บwill act? EU needs Tรผrkiye ๐น๐ท defence and Trump appears to have given green light. Most important is to watch worldโs 3rd largest economy: what will Germany ๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐บ say?
[END].
๐ธ But, often, politicians make choices for their own short-term political survival and personal-power. Open question: how will Tรผrkiye ๐น๐ท respond: seculars, youths, opposition parties, Istanbulites and business?
. . . Continued
๐ธUS & Tรผrkiye ๐บ๐ธ๐น๐ท also appear to have deep structural differences: Israel ๐ฎ๐ฑ& Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia ๐ธ๐ฆ, Horn of Africa, Green Energy versus Gas/Oil, Egypt, Caucasus and Central Asia, China ๐จ๐ณ policy and list goes on.
Continued . . .
๐ธNumerically, Tรผrkiye's ๐น๐ท economy, security and energy is European. This is easily demonstrated in trade, foreign investment, logistic connectivity & energy export market figures. US ๐บ๐ธ๐น๐ท trade is less than 6% and EU ๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท trade is more than 45%.
. . . Continued
๐ธWhy? No geo-political analyst would say otherwise. All trade figures, infrastructure, CU, electricity grid, supply chains support this.
๐ธโIf ๐น๐ท choose a security/economic relationship with ๐บ๐ธ US . . . it would be short-lived gain; it ๐น๐ท would be shooting itself in foot.โ
. . . Continued
New ๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท article by @news.dw.com is kind enough to quote my analysis.
รok teลekkรผrler / Danke๐
Topic: ฤฐmamoฤlu imprisonment and Erdogan reach for power & international bargaining ๐บ๐ธ๐ช๐บ๐
๐ธโTรผrkiye's ๐น๐ท natural choice should be Europe, where it shares a common geography.โ
. . . Continued
I wish I could have joined you in Rome ๐ฎ๐น๐ช๐บ, Bucharest ๐ท๐ด๐ช๐บ, Belgrade ๐ท๐ธ๐ช๐บ, Brussels ๐ง๐ช๐ช๐บ, Berlin ๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐บ, Tbilisi ๐ฌ๐ช๐ช๐บand many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch.
I wore my ๐ช๐บ jumper for a morning jog.
Viva LโEuropa! ๐
#UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity
Thousands of people gathered in Bucharest, Romania to declare their solidarity with Europe and Ukraine, and to reject Russia and Trump's attempts to corrupt their democracy. #3E #RomaniaProtests
16.03.2025 04:14 โ ๐ 6795 ๐ 1450 ๐ฌ 79 ๐ 58I wish I could have joined you in Rome ๐ฎ๐น๐ช๐บ, Bucharest ๐ท๐ด๐ช๐บ, Belgrade ๐ท๐ธ๐ช๐บ, Brussels ๐ง๐ช๐ช๐บ, Berlin ๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐บ, Tbilisi ๐ฌ๐ช๐ช๐บand many more cities this weekend for the #EuropeMarch.
I wore my ๐ช๐บ jumper for a morning jog.
Viva LโEuropa! ๐
#UnitedInDiversity #StrongerTogether #ContinentalUnity
#French ๐ซ๐ท๐ช๐บ #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Tรผrkiye ๐น๐ท in European security architecture ๐
Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for โCentre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignementโ๐
cf2r.org/actualite/quelโฆ
. . .
Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play.
Paradoxically, EU-Tรผrkiye ๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time.
Read my article (2024) about #Tรผrkiye in Europeโs New Security Architecture ๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...
. . .
Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europeโs leading powers.
Only time will tell.
What remains certain: ๐ซ๐ท popular misconceptions about ๐น๐ท and ๐ซ๐ท should be relegated to the past.
. . . (Continued)
. . .
Complex points of contention ๐ซ๐ท๐น๐ท๐
๐ธAfrica influence
๐ธCaucasus & Central Asia
๐ธCustoms Union & EIB
๐ธSecurity, Space & Defence
๐ธStrategic Autonomy
๐ธEastern Mediterranean
๐ธCyprus territorial integrity
๐ธGreek maritime
๐ธNuclear Plants
๐ธTheology & Laicite
๐ธSyria
๐ธMigration
. . . (Continued)
. . .
@EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept Erdoฤanโs invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling.
@rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete.
. . . (Continued)
The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through ๐ซ๐ท๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท Franco-Turkish rapprochement.
The question is whether ๐น๐ท Ankara and ๐ซ๐ทParis are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington.
. . . (Continued)
No Elon Musk.
Europe does not need American ๐บ๐ธ and Russian ๐ท๐บ foreign interference to make โEurope Great Againโ.
Europe needs๐
๐ธ EU Unity ๐ช๐บ
๐ธ EU Defence ๐
๐ธ EU Bonds ๐ถ
๐ธ EU Nuclear โข๏ธ
๐ธ EU Technology & Social Media๐จโ๐ฌ
#Tรผrkiyeโs ๐น๐ท most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic ๐น๐ท audience โคต๏ธ
๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท รok teลekkรผrler ๐
Main points of Op-Ed ๐
๐ธTrump ๐บ๐ธ #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy ๐บ๐ฆ
๐ธ#Nuclear France ๐ซ๐ท๐ช๐บ & German ๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐บ#Eurobonds to replace Washington?
. . . Continued
. . . Continued
๐ธ#US ๐บ๐ธ gets closer to #Russia ๐ท๐บ in order to fight #China ๐จ๐ณ at expense of ๐ช๐บ Europe, including Tรผrkiye ๐น๐ท
๐ธ#Tรผrkiye ๐น๐ท is an ally of Kiev ๐บ๐ฆ & must be included in ๐ซ๐ท๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐บ core European security architecture
Link ๐ Turkish language Hรผrriyet ๐น๐ท hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-โฆ
[END].
#French ๐ซ๐ท๐ช๐บ #intelligence community publishes my views on considering #Tรผrkiye ๐น๐ท in European security architecture ๐
Ex-senior-intelligence & military-industrial expert Alain Rodier adds my views in 2025 public article for โCentre Francais Recherche sur les Renseignementโ๐
cf2r.org/actualite/quelโฆ
โThe general sentiment in the EU is that Turkey is more important than ever on security cooperation. That ranges from military procurement to Ukraine, energy, critical infrastructure, you name it," said @samueljsdv.bsky.social.
My latest for @turkeyrecap.bsky.social:
As doubts grow over US defense commitments to Ukraine and the EU, Ankaraโs role in regional security is likely to expand due to its existing force and weapons production capacities.
@diegocupolo.bsky.social reports with comments by @samueljsdv.bsky.social, Daria Isachenko and @yoruk.bsky.social.
. . . Continued
๐ธ#US ๐บ๐ธ gets closer to #Russia ๐ท๐บ in order to fight #China ๐จ๐ณ at expense of ๐ช๐บ Europe, including Tรผrkiye ๐น๐ท
๐ธ#Tรผrkiye ๐น๐ท is an ally of Kiev ๐บ๐ฆ & must be included in ๐ซ๐ท๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐บ core European security architecture
Link ๐ Turkish language Hรผrriyet ๐น๐ท hurriyet.com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-โฆ
[END].
#Tรผrkiyeโs ๐น๐ท most read (top 3) newspaper @Hurriyet translated & reprinted my Op-Ed into Turkish languagefor domestic ๐น๐ท audience โคต๏ธ
๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท รok teลekkรผrler ๐
Main points of Op-Ed ๐
๐ธTrump ๐บ๐ธ #hypocrisy with Zelenskyy ๐บ๐ฆ
๐ธ#Nuclear France ๐ซ๐ท๐ช๐บ & German ๐ฉ๐ช๐ช๐บ#Eurobonds to replace Washington?
. . . Continued
๐ @Turkeyrecap.bsky.social Editor @DiegoCupolo.bsky.social kindly asked me to predict EU-Tรผrkiye ๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท in 2025 ๐
5-points๐โคต๏ธ
1๏ธโฃ #EU-#Tรผrkiye ๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท relations in 2025 are fragile and very dependent on ๐บ๐ธ Donald Trump.
. . . ๐
. . .
Now, geo-politics, customs union and new security agenda are at play.
Paradoxically, EU-Tรผrkiye ๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท relations have never been more relevant and fragile at the same time.
Read my article (2024) about #Tรผrkiye in Europeโs New Security Architecture ๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท liberalforum.eu/wp-content/u...
. . .
Perhaps personal relationship of two leaders is lacking. Perhaps structural-divisions are too great between two of Europeโs leading powers.
Only time will tell.
What remains certain: ๐ซ๐ท popular misconceptions about ๐น๐ท and ๐ซ๐ท should be relegated to the past.
. . . (Continued)
. . .
Complex points of contention ๐ซ๐ท๐น๐ท๐
๐ธAfrica influence
๐ธCaucasus & Central Asia
๐ธCustoms Union & EIB
๐ธSecurity, Space & Defence
๐ธStrategic Autonomy
๐ธEastern Mediterranean
๐ธCyprus territorial integrity
๐ธGreek maritime
๐ธNuclear Plants
๐ธTheology & Laicite
๐ธSyria
๐ธMigration
. . . (Continued)
. . .
@EmmanuelMacron.bsky.social should accept Erdoฤanโs invitation to Ankara instead of always stalling.
@rterdogana.bsky.social personnel should privately propose something more concrete to Paris, instead of offering little concrete.
. . . (Continued)
The fastest way for Europe to counter American threats is through ๐ซ๐ท๐ช๐บ๐น๐ท Franco-Turkish rapprochement.
The question is whether ๐น๐ท Ankara and ๐ซ๐ทParis are willing to sacrifice or will instead out-rat/out-bid each other to Washington.
. . . (Continued)