The 2024 MLB Awards Race Guide to the Homestretch
Getty Images/Ringer illustration
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani aren’t the only players having outrageous years. With one month remaining in baseball’s regular season, it’s time to take stock of the races for MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year.
The 2024 MLB playoff field looks mostly set as the post–Labor Day sprint commences—but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any races worth watching over the regular season’s final month. There are divisional races! There are wild-card races! And, on an individual basis, there are a host of award races that remain too close to call.
As is our annual tradition at _The Ringer_ , we’ll use the start of September to survey the six big awards and all the candidates who might realistically win them. Races are ordered from most to least settled, from the clearest shoo-in to the greatest debate.
### AL Cy Young
**The favorite:** Tarik Skubal, Tigers
**The contenders:** None
**The dark horse:** Emmanuel Clase, Guardians
Clase has a fun, outside-the-box case for this award. Despite a middling strikeout rate—which ranks 101st among 176 qualified arms—the Guardians closer has 41 saves, while no other reliever in the American League has more than 29. Clase brandishes a shiny 0.70 ERA, and he leads the majors in win probability added.
But he has no real chance to win, given how voter preferences have evolved. Between 1974 and 1992, eight relievers won a Cy Young award, but in the past three decades, only one (Eric Gagné in 2003) has. Even Zack Britton could manage only a fourth-place finish in 2016, despite facing a relatively weak field of starters and having numbers that topped Clase’s (0.54 ERA, 47 for 47 in save situations, elite win probability figures).
Besides, Skubal is running away with this award, and for good reason. The biggest question about the rest of Skubal’s season isn’t whether he’ll win the Cy Young, but whether he’ll win the pitching triple crown. Other than Shane Bieber in the shortened 2020 season, no pitcher has led his league in ERA, wins, and strikeouts since Justin Verlander (in the AL) and Clayton Kershaw (in the NL) did so in 2011.
Barring a collapse down the stretch, the Tigers southpaw has an insurmountable lead in ERA, with a 2.51 mark that’s well ahead of second-place Ronel Blanco’s 3.03. But he has narrower advantages in wins (16, ahead of 14 apiece from José Berríos, Seth Lugo, and Carlos Rodón) and strikeouts (201, ahead of Cole Ragans’s 197). Skubal’s quest for the triple crown could come down to how Detroit chooses to give him extra rest in the final month.
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images Judge singles for his 1,000th career major league hit in the ninth inning of the game against the Washington Nationals on August 26.
### AL MVP
**The favorite:** Aaron Judge, Yankees OF
**The contender:** Bobby Witt Jr., Royals SS
**The dark horses:** None
Condolences to Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson, and Jarren Duran—you might well have been MVP favorites in a different league, in a different year. But not in the American League in 2024, where multiple position players will likely reach double-digit bWAR for just the fourth time in AL-NL history (and only the second time since the introduction of modern MVP voting procedures).
In his breakout third season, Witt has excelled by every statistical measure. He leads all shortstops in outs above average, all MLB players in sprint speed, and all qualified hitters in batting average, hits, and runs. He will certainly finish with a 30-30 season. And he’s on pace to finish with one of the most valuable seasons for a shortstop in MLB history.
Yet, despite all those accomplishments, Witt has almost no chance to win MVP! That’s how extraordinary Judge has been, ever since a merely mediocre April. The MLB leader in home runs, RBI, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage now has a 218 wRC+, meaning he’s been 118 percent better than a league-average hitter this season. The only players in AL-NL history with better marks over a full season are Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams.
On the whole, Judge has mashed even more in 2024 than he did in 2022, when he hit an AL-record 62 homers with a 206 wRC+ and comfortably beat Shohei Ohtani—in a phenomenal two-way season—for the MVP trophy. The same outcome will likely ensue this year: an all-time season from a runner-up, behind an even more all-time season from Judge.
Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images Ohtani safely slides at home plate to score a run against the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 2.
### NL MVP
**The favorite:** Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers DH
**The contender:** Francisco Lindor, Mets SS
**The dark horses:** None
Ohtani could make history in a few different ways this season:
* With two MVP awards already on his mantel from his Angels days, he could join Frank Robinson as the only players in MLB history to win both AL and NL MVP.
* With 44 homers and 46 steals, and four weeks to go, he could become the first member of MLB’s 50-50 club.
* With his surgically repaired UCL still on the mend, he could become the first full-time DH to win MVP.
That Ohtani ranks among the NL’s WAR leaders is remarkable, given the harsh defensive adjustment applied to designated hitters—and it speaks to his outrageous performance at the plate. FanGraphs calculates that Lindor—who ranks second among shortstops in OAA, behind only Witt—has been worth 16.5 runs above average in the field this season, while Ohtani is at minus-14.6 because of his DH role. That’s a difference of 31.1 runs, or about three WAR, but Ohtani compensates with a 28-run advantage over Lindor on offense. The NL’s second-best batter this season is Marcell Ozuna, also a DH, and even he’s 21 runs (or about two wins’ worth of value) behind Ohtani.
Other potential contenders, meanwhile, have fallen by the wayside. Ketel Marte hasn’t played since mid-August due to an ankle injury, and Elly De La Cruz’s chances have faded as his bat has regressed toward the mean and his baserunning exploits have dwindled (just a 105 wRC+ and six stolen bases since the start of August). Where it once looked as if De La Cruz might reach some ludicrous line like 30 homers and 100 steals, it’s now Ohtani who has the best chance of a historic power-speed combo.
In terms of total value, Lindor actually looks like Ohtani’s equal this season. Baseball-Reference gives Ohtani the edge, 7.1 to 6.2 WAR, but FanGraphs places the Mets shortstop in the lead, 7.0 to 6.6. However, the Dodgers DH surely has the narrative advantage, so Lindor’s chances would probably require (a) that Ohtani fails to reach 50-50 and (b) that New York makes the playoffs. The Mets are only half a game back of Atlanta for the final wild-card spot, and FanGraphs gives them a 37 percent playoff chance. But Ohtani has hit at least six homers every month this season (six more in September would get him to 50) and ramped up his stolen base rate, with 27 total steals across July and August. He’s clearly aiming for 50-50. He’ll probably get there and nab another MVP trophy in the process.
###
NL Cy Young
**The favorite:** Chris Sale, Atlanta
**The contender:** Zack Wheeler, Phillies
**The dark horses:** None
It’s difficult to believe that Sale has never won a Cy Young award. From 2012 through 2018, he finished, in order: sixth, fifth, third, fourth, fifth, second, and fourth. Adam Wainwright is the only pitcher in MLB history with more “Cy Young shares” (calculated by adding up the percentage of possible votes a player receives in each season) yet no actual trophy.
Incidentally, Sale’s career tally of Cy Young shares is almost identical to Gerrit Cole’s before the Yankees hurler won his first Cy Young last season. And while it looked as if Sale, who’d declined and suffered injuries ever since turning 30 in 2019, might never have another chance to win, he now has a strong case to follow in Cole’s path in 2024. Entering the homestretch, Sale has the NL lead in wins, strikeout rate, ERA, and FIP.
Like Skubal, Sale could win the pitching triple crown. His path is potted with more holes, though: Sale has a decent lead in wins (15, with second-place Wheeler back at 13), but Dylan Cease leads with 201 strikeouts to Sale’s 197, and the ERA difference between Sale (2.58) and Wheeler (2.63) is minuscule. (Atlanta teammate Reynaldo López is way ahead with a 2.00 ERA, but unless he throws 40 1/3 more innings this season, he won’t end up qualifying.)
In terms of the Cy Young race, the advanced metrics suggest a greater gulf between Sale and Wheeler than surface stats do. Sale has more strikeouts than Wheeler despite throwing fewer innings, and he’s allowed fewer than half as many home runs (eight vs. Wheeler’s 17), while Wheeler’s run prevention is almost as stingy because he’s allowed a mere .248 BABIP versus Sale’s .319. Sale has a clear lead for now. But if the ERA leaderboard flips and Wheeler finishes strong—a seven-inning shutout against Atlanta over the weekend helps—Sale might end up just short of individual hardware once more.
###
AL Rookie of the Year
**The favorites:** Austin Wells, Yankees C; Colton Cowser, Orioles OF
**The contender:** Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox OF
**The dark horses:** David Hamilton, Red Sox IF; Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox SS/CF; Mason Miller, Athletics RP
Arguably a half-dozen NL rookies—Jackson Merrill, Masyn Winn, Tyler Fitzgerald, Jackson Chourio, Paul Skenes, and Shota Imanaga—would be Rookie of the Year favorites, or close to it, if they played for an AL club. In contrast, the Junior Circuit’s best prospects have either underachieved as rookies (Jackson Holliday, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter) or spent most of the season in the minors (Junior Caminero).
The result is a race between imperfect candidates, which—like the AL East race—will likely come down to a battle between the Yankees and Orioles, with the Red Sox in the rearview mirror. According to FanGraphs, Cowser has the slimmest WAR lead over Wells, 3.4 to 3.3; according to Baseball-Reference, the Yankees catcher leads the Orioles outfielder 2.5 WAR to 2.3.
(Due in large part to strange-looking defensive measurements, the top three rookie AL position players by bWAR are all Red Sox: Abreu at 3.0, followed by Hamilton and Rafaela at 2.7 each. At FanGraphs, conversely, Abreu is respectably close with 3.0 WAR, but Hamilton and Rafaela fall well behind Wells and Cowser and aren’t the best candidates on their own team.)
Both Wells and Cowser are two-way contributors. Wells rates as a top-five framer according to Statcast, FanGraphs, and _Baseball Prospectus_, and he supplies a crucial third bat behind Judge and Soto in the Yankees’ stars-and-scrubs lineup. Wells got off to a slow (and unlucky, based on batted ball data) start to the season, but has a 143 wRC+ since the beginning of June.
Cowser, meanwhile, also rates as a superb defender, and he’s forced his way into an everyday role for a contending team. An elevated strikeout rate hasn’t stopped him from posting a solid batting line with an AL-rookie-best 20 home runs. Crucially, the Orioles rookie also has 134 more plate appearances than Wells, who’s taken more days off due to his slow start and a positional split with Jose Trevino.
Behind that leading duo is Abreu, who boasts the best batting line of the trio—but his 125 wRC+ is somewhat inflated due to extreme splits. Abreu has an .886 OPS against righties versus a .511 against lefties, so Boston holds him out of the lineup against same-handed pitchers, and he’s had the platoon advantage in 85 percent of his plate appearances. Abreu also rates as a strong defender, though at less valuable positions than Wells and Cowser.
On the outside looking in, most likely, is Miller, who leads all qualified relievers with a 42 percent strikeout rate. Dominant relievers used to win this award with some frequency; from 2009 through 2011, Andrew Bailey, Neftalí Feliz, and Craig Kimbrel all won it in a row. But since Kimbrel, Devin Williams, who won in the shortened 2020 season, is the only relief pitcher to match that feat.
Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images Skenes in action against the Chicago Cubs on August 28.
### NL Rookie of the Year
**The favorite:** Jackson Merrill, Padres OF
**The contender:** Paul Skenes, Pirates SP
**The dark horses:** None
Rookie of the Year is the only award that truly pits pitchers and position players against one another; only the former are eligible for Cy Young, and the latter are always heavy favorites to win MVP. Typically, the hitter has the advantage in close Rookie of the Year races; Michael Harris II beat out teammate Spencer Strider in 2022, Jonathan India beat Trevor Rogers in 2021, Pete Alonso beat Michael Soroka in 2019, and Bryce Harper beat Wade Miley in 2012.
Merrill, who leads all NL center fielders with 4.2 fWAR, is a worthy candidate to carry on that tradition in 2024. Despite converting from shortstop to center fielder this season (he’d never played an _inning_ at his new position in his entire minor league career), Merrill rates as an above-average defender. Despite never playing in Triple-A and navigating a difficult transition to the big leagues at the plate (93 wRC+ at the end of May), Merrill now totes an excellent batting line (127 wRC+ overall) because of a scorching run since the start of June (148 wRC+). And despite being a 21-year-old rookie, Merrill has been incredibly clutch for a wild-card contender that needs every win.
> Jackson Merrill hits his second #walkoff home run of the season! pic.twitter.com/qCU0g0rIzR
>
> — MLB (@MLB) August 25, 2024
That’s a pretty strong case! But Skenes has one, too, because last year’s no. 1 pick might already be the best pitcher in the major leagues. He’s top five, at a minimum: Among all pitchers with at least 100 innings this season, Skenes ranks second in ERA (2.23), third in FIP (2.73), and third in strikeout rate (32 percent). He’s already been pulled from multiple no-hitters to manage his workload. And as perhaps the sport’s next great celebrity star, he certainly has fame and buzz on his side.
Merrill might still have the edge because of his position, especially if the Pirates shut Skenes down or make him ease off the gas down the stretch. Merrill already had a six-week head start because he debuted on Opening Day while Skenes spent April tormenting Triple-A hitters. But this is one of the most exciting Rookie of the Year races in a while, as fortunes change with every Skenes masterpiece and Merrill walk-off.
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