Ali Hashem علي هاشم

Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah's Assassination The U.S. and Israeli militaries are targeting Iran’s leaders—but that may only strengthen the state.

In case you were asking.
@alihashem.bsky.social in @foreignpolicy.com

Iran analysis from journalist @alihashem.bsky.social

How to Hold Syria Together In the wake of Assad’s fall, the biggest threat is chaos.

My latest for @foreignaffairs.com, on why Syrian rebels' previous, largely chaotic experiments in governance should make us concerned about a post-Assad Syria; but why, nonetheless, everyone now has an interest in seeing Syria's transition succeed: www.foreignaffairs.com/syria/how-ho...

Shortly afterwards, informed sources explained, a decision was made to evacuate the country through the same route that had been used to enter the Syrian conflict back in 2013.

But Hezbollah’s deployment turned out to be far smaller, with commanders quickly concluding that a withdrawal was in order after an operational assessment, Amwaj media has learned.

Accounts of what happened next are conflicting. Initially, insiders charged that up to 2,000 members of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force were to be deployed for one last stand.

“The war had become too costly to continue,” the source explained, saying that Hezbollah “has serious shortcomings…it no longer has the resources to fight effectively and cannot acquire advanced weapons to shift the war’s trajectory.”

According to the senior regional diplomatic source, the truce—which went into effect as HTS launched its offensive—was an unavoidable outcome due to the unsustainability of Hezbollah’s confrontation with Israel.

The role of Hezbollah, and specifically its ceasefire with Israel, is also crucial to understanding the story of the downfall of Assad.

In this context, the Quds Force is said to have established contact with HTS, securing assurances amid the collapse of the Syrian army that Shiite Muslims and Shiite shrines as well as the Iranian embassy would be left untouched.

The senior regional diplomatic source explained that despite the Syrian government’s urgent request for Iranian support, logistical constraints and operational risks—including potential Israeli airstrikes—made such assistance impractical.

Assad is said to have expressed anger toward his army, describing it as an unreliable collection of “thieves.”

While Assad’s Russian host and counterpart, Vladimir Putin, had promised assistance, the senior regional source suggested that this support was limited to ensuring a safe exit. Given that Assad and his wife are now apparently in Russia, this promise has been kept—at least for now.

First and foremost, Russia played a pivotal role as events unfolded. According to one high-ranking regional diplomatic source, Assad’s recent visit to Moscow was a turning point.

In brief, the sudden and unforeseen downfall of Assad l signals the end of the Iran-led Axis as it once was, along with the significant leverage it had amassed in the Levant

Inside story: Hezbollah, Iran and the downfall of Assad The sudden downfall of Bashar Al-Assad has raised a number of questions about the thinking and roles of his supporters. First and foremost, Russia—the most powerful foreign ally of the Syrian governme...

Our latest piece, co-authored by Mohammed Shabani and me, explores Hezbollah, Iran, and the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime.

amwaj.media/article/insi...

Couple of antitank guided missiles launched towards israeli tanks near Al-Bayada. Could be seen hitting their targets from afar.

Massive Israeli airstrikes reduces a residential block in the heart of the capital to rubble. Reports of multiple casualties, with many still buried beneath the debris. This is no longer “negotiations under fire”, rather the spark that might ignite the collapse of the talks.

Three Israeli airstrikes this morning in different areas inside Beirut’s southern suburbs

Another building reduced to rubble by Israel. No rockets, no weapons, only homes filled with memories and the dreams of families striving for a better life.

Elon Musk Met With Iran’s U.N. Ambassador, Iranian Officials Say The tech billionaire, a top adviser to President-elect Donald J. Trump, was reported to have discussed ways to defuse tensions between Iran and the United States.

Elon Musk Met With Iran’s U.N. Ambassador in a session that two Iranian officials described as a discussion of how to defuse tensions between Iran and the United States.
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/w...

Elon Musk Met With Iran’s U.N. Ambassador, Iranian Officials Say The tech billionaire, a top adviser to President-elect Donald J. Trump, was reported to have discussed ways to defuse tensions between Iran and the United States.

Elon Musk Met With Iran’s U.N. Ambassador in a session that two Iranian officials described as a discussion of how to defuse tensions between Iran and the United States.
www.nytimes.com/2024/11/14/w...

The aftermath of this morning’s Israeli attack on Beirut’s southern suburb

Bluesky adds 1 million users after US election as users ditch X Micro-blogging site says it now has more than 15 million users, up from nine million in September.

Bluesky adds 1 million users after US election as users ditch X
aje.io/wf0som

ما بعد الذروة: حزب الله إلى سيرته الأولى  | الجادّة في أدبيات ما قبل حرب "طوفان الأقصى"، كان حزب الله يعد أنصاره بدخول الجليل (المنطقة الحدودية بين جنوب لبنان وشمال فلسطين المحتلة). لم يكن ذلك وعدًا عابرًا لأهداف تعبويّة، بل ركناً أساسيًّا في تصوّرات ا...

@alihashem.bsky.social for Aljadah on the historical evolution of Hizbullah's character and, in the wake of Israel's blows to the organization, its seeming reversion to something more modest and durable: aljadah.media/archives/79894

Tyre, AlHosh. Israeli airstrikes turn residential neighbourhoods to battlefields.

Israeli media has released footage showing damage to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's house, following the drone attack by Hezbollah. The drone is said to have detonated at his bedroom window, causing significant damage to both the garden and the interior of the residence.

The story of Ismail Haniyeh’s last hours, the security breaches, the eyewitness account, the narratives, the aftermath, and the diplomatic efforts that don’t seem to be going anywhere.
For Amwaj media, this coauthored by Mohammad Ali Shabani and yours truly.
amwaj.media/article/excl...

Not a knock on @alihashem.bsky.social's good article, but:

I think a lot of people in Lebanon assume Israel won't launch a more open war because that would so clearly be a bad idea.

But – particularly after the past half-year – why would we assume Israeli leaders will make good choices?

Israel and Lebanon Won’t End Up at War The fighting is intensifying—but neither side wants an all-out escalation.

@alihashem.bsky.social for @foreignpolicy.com on the Hizbullah-Israel state of play along the Blue Line: foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/12/i...