Macartan Humphreys

for majority rule that's pretty much right; there's work connecting e.g. dimensionality to the Nakamura number e.g in Austen Smith and Banks (the piece with Laver is for non standard prefs)

but again even if there's sometimes a little hope in d>2, the core hasn't done the work we hoped of it in d=1

Your very own Brendan Nyhan
🤩

Now also available as a Claude Code skill thanks to @tiagoventura.bsky.social www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/pk0np...

Well you can have a multicameral core

macartan.github.io/assets/pdf/p...

Or even a city block core

macartan.github.io/assets/pdf/p...

But still yes trap is the right term here

The Median Voter Theorem is a Clarity Trap What the Democratic party needs; what it demands, is bold, persistent experimentation

The Median Voter Theorem is a Clarity Trap www.programmablemutter.com/p/the-median...

heavenly: go for a coffee at 11 and a stroll in Stephen's Green

Professor @gailmcelroy.bsky.social and @theresareidy.bsky.social take a scientific look at the 2024 general election on the Inside Politics Podcast hosted by Hugh Linehan.

You can listen to the full interview on the Irish Times: www.irishtimes.com/podcasts/ins...

What share of non registered studies do we think are never share publicly ?

European states must retract outrageous attacks on Francesca Albanese They should publicly apologize and retract calls for her resignation

Amnesty: European states must retract outrageous attacks on UN Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese

www.amnesty.org/en/latest/ne...

MOPED workshop on the political economy of development in Berlin

Deadline to apply: 15 Feb (Sunday already!)

This is a REALLY fun workshop; great papers, lovely space, wonderful crowd, finally some decent weather...

www.wzb.eu/en/events/mo...

New research publication from Dr @gizemarikan.bsky.social & Dr Judit Ralbovszki titled 'The effect of terrorism on religious minorities: evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel' out now via the Journal of Peace Research.

To read the full paper: doi.org/10.1093/jopr...

Really enjoyed doing this short course on causal models for qualitative and mixed methods research @gesistraining.bsky.social; what a great group

All teaching materials are here: slides, exercises, videos, readings: integrated-inferences.github.io/short-course/

bsky.app/profile/gesi...

@heikogiebler.bsky.social, Johannes Giesecke, @macartan.bsky.social, @swenhutter.bsky.social & @heikekluever.bsky.social: Mobilizing Europe’s citizens to take action on migration and climate change: behavioral evidence from 27 EU member states 🔗 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Tomorrow is the last day to apply for this mixed methods / causal inference course in Cologne !

All this and more, a plug for my @justsecurity.org colleague @eliavl.bsky.social ‘s excellent book on Occupation in International Law (OUP 2022). Luckily he gave me an extra signed copy in recent weeks so encourage you all to get your own - you will find it useful in the week’s ahead.

“Thank you for your attention to this matter” 🔥

What a disappointing, ambivalent response from the EU.

Thanks @seva.bsky.social for a bigger view:

bsky.app/profile/seva...

News Team, Thank you for the notes and texts. I apologize for not reaching out earlier. I learned on Saturday that Bari Weiss spiked our story, INSIDE CECOT, which was supposed to air tonight. We (Ori and I) asked for a call to discuss her decision. She did not afford us that courtesy/opportunity. Our story was screened five times and cleared by both CBS attorneys and Standards and Practices. It is factually correct. In my view, pulling it now-after every rigorous internal check has been met is not an editorial decision, it is a political one. We requested responses to questions and/or interviews with DHS, the White House, and the State Department. Government silence is a statement, not a VETO. Their refusal to be interviewed is a tactical maneuver designed to kill the story. If the administration's refusal to participate becomes a valid reason to spike a story, we

have effectively handed them a "kill switch" for any reporting they find inconvenient. If the standard for airing a story becomes "the government must agree to be interviewed," then the government effectively gains control over the 60 Minutes broadcast. We go from an investigative powerhouse to a stenographer for the state. These men risked their lives to speak with us. We have a moral and professional obligation to the sources who entrusted us with their stories. Abandoning them now is a betrayal of the most basic tenet of journalism: giving voice to the voiceless. CBS spiked the Jeffrey Wigand interview due to legal concerns, nearly destroying the credibility of this broadcast. It took years to recover from that "low point." By pulling this story to shield an administration, we are repeating that history, but for political optics rather than legal ones.

We have been promoting this story on social media for days. Our viewers are expecting it. When it fails to air without a credible explanation, the public will correctly identify this as corporate censorship. We are trading 50 years of "Gold Standard" reputation for a single week of political quiet. I care too much about this broadcast to watch it be dismantled without a fight. Sharyn

Per NY Times’s Michael Grynbaum on X, this is Sharyn Alfonsi’s email to her “60 Minutes” colleagues in full:

GESIS Workshop Causal Models for Qualitative and Mixed Methods Research 27 to 28 January 2026 / Cologne Macartan Humphreys & Alan M. Jacobs

Want to bring causal thinking into qualitative or mixed methods research? @macartan.bsky.social & @alanjacobs.bsky.social show how to build causal models & use Bayesian reasoning to link theory with data, guide case & method choices, & combine within- & cross-case evidence.
👉 t1p.de/qual_mix_meth_26

How Ireland Voted 2024 This book is the 10th volume in the established How Ireland Voted series and provides the definitive story of Ireland’s 2024 election.

🚨How Ireland Voted 2024 is out!🇮🇪🗳️

Featuring insights from TCD’s Lisa Keenan, Gail McElroy & Michael Gallagher, plus six PhD alumni — Rory Costello, Kevin Cunningham, Jos Elkink, Stefan Müller, Eoin O'Malley & Jane Suiter.

A must-read: link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-93795-8

Gaza, Israel, and German Foreign Policy: A View on Public Opinion A survey conducted in August 2025 found that the majority of people living in Germany support a foreign policy towards Gaza and Israel that is guided by international law and seeks to uphold universal...

The UN, human rights organizations, and scholars have concluded that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.

What are the views of people living in Germany on Israel's offensive and Germany's role?

A long 🧵based on survey results.

www.giga-hamburg.de/en/publicati...

Ten key insights from development economics in 2025 Research on VoxDev in 2025 has shed light on getting stuff done, paying for it, the changing development landscape, and a whole lot more.

🆕 Ten key insights from development economics in 2025

The world is changing rapidly. Can research inform what comes next?

I spent a long time trying to condense everything I read this year at @voxdev.bsky.social into ten key insights, you can read the full blog here: voxdev.org/topic/ten-ke...

@jacobmontgomery.bsky.social your point I think

Reasonable if that’s what you are aiming for; in which case this becomes more a question of ext validity

I appreciate though the idea that we actually sometimes want to *define* levels as fx: how responses depend on conditions

Yes this is exactly right that’s why the machinery is the same

Now turn to the inquiry: is my *interest* in whether you say Y or N depending on this Q or is it whether you are someone that likes coffee (and, or tea). If latter then Inq is not fx but the surv exp might be a great way to measure it

If in need see the division between chapters 17 and 18

Open access

book.declaredesign.org

Sorry but last: if I change the gender of a candidate in a conjoint I am effectively asking you what you think about a candidate with a given attribute; that’s fine but it’s not the effect of gender on choice

It’s slippery

I get to measure your preference but I haven’t changed it. I have just changed the answer by virtue of changing the question. I could even ask you both questions.

That’s obv an extreme example but hopefully points to fact that the machinery can get used but for measurement purposes

I think the formal similarity and the nomenclature used makes for for confusion

One way to think about it: you don’t measure causal effects; you infer them. At most one po gets realized. If i ask you randomly if you like tea (T) or coffee (C), and you answer yes or no as a function of the wording…