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Stephen Wild

@stephenjwild.bsky.social

I try to put straight lines through things but usually fail. Try to be Bayesian when I can. Views my own. RT/like != endorsement.

3,639 Followers  |  1,044 Following  |  6,918 Posts  |  Joined: 07.05.2023
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Posts by Stephen Wild (@stephenjwild.bsky.social)

I haven't read the book or seen the movie, so this reference is lost of me. To Gemini of an explanation! :-p

04.03.2026 01:01 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If anything I underestimate what they can do because I am cheap and refuse to pay for premium subscriptions

04.03.2026 00:57 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Either way, I still think what they can do is impressive, even if I think it premature to be declaring consequences like "the end of [X]"

04.03.2026 00:52 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Part of that investment may reflect the culture of AI companies, and part of it may reflect that these areas are places where it's easier to verify outputs, and part of it may be that's where the demand for them is. I'm very curious to see how they perform once we get outside that domain.

04.03.2026 00:49 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Interesting.

I am still relatively agnostic as to LLMs, Agents, and their abilities, and how I see them affecting different areas. This gives me something else to think about.

04.03.2026 00:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

So far, the strongest "effect" of LLMs seems to be a compulsion to see this technology outside of history, and attributing pathologies to them that predate them. It's a bad way of thinking about this or any technology.

03.03.2026 23:04 β€” πŸ‘ 27    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

So it's nice to see a takes that come at it from different angles (apprenticeship and the normative role of professors)

03.03.2026 23:05 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It's interesting to see some of the takes on the article (yes, I succumbed to the bait)

In rough order:

1) AI doesn't do as good of job as humans
2) if you use AI, did you actually do the work?
3) AI is excellent and can replace [X] of the workflow
4) the publication system/science is doomed

03.03.2026 23:03 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Agreed. Maybes "advances" was not the right word. "Moves," maybe?

03.03.2026 20:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

...the problem is in dealing with the quantity of output that advances knowledge little or not at all.

03.03.2026 20:39 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I disagree slightly here, in that I see science qua knowledge production as following a power law. Most of the time knowledge is advanced little or not at all, but some advances are massive. More knowledge production = more advancement (eventually)...

03.03.2026 20:37 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Hey #stats folk, I'm looking for some great (but concise) YouTube vids about likelihood functions & estimation (MLE, properties, Fisher information, std errs).

These would serve students taking my Bayesian course that didn't take the preceding likelihood course (that is taught by someone else).

03.03.2026 20:22 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, I succumbed to the bait.

03.03.2026 20:27 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ€”

03.03.2026 20:27 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Interesting and useful perspective

03.03.2026 20:22 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
Analyze the attentive and bypass bias: mock vignette checks in survey experiments | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core Analyze the attentive and bypass bias: mock vignette checks in survey experiments - Volume 11 Issue 2

But see for an alternstive:

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

03.03.2026 19:52 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

In Canada 5 year terms are the most popular by far

03.03.2026 15:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

πŸ‘€

bsky.app/profile/akhi...

03.03.2026 15:21 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes but

bsky.app/profile/step...

03.03.2026 15:16 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

*academic science

03.03.2026 15:12 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
03.03.2026 14:55 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes but

bsky.app/profile/step...

03.03.2026 14:52 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

bsky.app/profile/step...

03.03.2026 14:43 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The Templin lectures are a nice intro to both Bayesian stats and psychometrics.

FWIW he (like me) doesn't like EFA.

bsky.app/profile/step...

03.03.2026 14:35 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Multidimensional Measurement Models Fall 2023 - YouTube Lectures and other videos for the Multilevel Measurement Models course from Fall Semester 2023

He also has a nice course on multidimensional measurement models:

youtube.com/playlist?lis...

03.03.2026 14:29 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This is a nice collection of lectures on Bayesian psychometrics by Jonathan Templin

03.03.2026 14:29 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
One question in the poll, for example, asked our sample of 1,035 adults whether they supported β€œan amnesty program that would grant legal status to people who entered the country illegally.” The second asked about β€œproviding a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who have resided in the United States for at least ten years, paid taxes, and passed a background check.”

One question in the poll, for example, asked our sample of 1,035 adults whether they supported β€œan amnesty program that would grant legal status to people who entered the country illegally.” The second asked about β€œproviding a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who have resided in the United States for at least ten years, paid taxes, and passed a background check.”

Some of these questions aren't contradictory. Eg:

03.03.2026 14:14 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 2
Preview
Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

Six:

journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

03.03.2026 13:54 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Bayesian Item Response Modeling in R with brms and Stan by Paul-Christian BΓΌrkner <p>Item response theory (IRT) is widely applied in the human sciences to model persons' responses on a set of items measuring one or more latent constructs. While several R packages have been develope...

Five:

www.jstatsoft.org/article/view...

03.03.2026 13:50 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Confirmatory Factor Analysis in Stan

Four:

medewitt.github.io/resources/st...

03.03.2026 13:43 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0