FPLOverThinker (John)

I guess that's why he's 5.6m - you get what you pay for.

The consensus is to make transfers for fixture swing, but I have lost more points by benching good players in 'red' fixtures, than any other mistake. The converse of buying players for top vs. bottom clashes also rarely pays off.

In FPL, there are so many generalisations we use for strategy e.g. we often use fixture difficulty rating as a definitive measure of the opposition's ability to score or concede goals. But teams charge their setup depending on opposition, so this sort of aggregation is not always the best approach.

This is a great article and of course raises more questions than it answers. it's a good starting point to get those of us with analytically curious minds thinking deeper.
I look at luck, which is largely spoken about as variance, as the inputs that we either can't quantify or can but can't model...

Martinelli to Gordon now, Cunha to Wood next week

No worries, gives me something to look forward to on Christmas Day when the telly is crap.
Thanks to you both for all the amazing content so far. Wish you a great Christmas and lots of positive variance on Boxing Day 😀🎄

Is this Patreons only?

This goes some way to explaining why Bournemouth can be such a difficult watch, but still grind out results.

The easy way to resolve the xMins problem here is to get Iwobi instead!

Maybe needs another axis that shows how often playing out from the back has been a disaster.
(Alex McCarthy hide now)

I’m still very happy with double NFO, I see them as season keepers now at orig 9m cost. Have played pretty much everyone now and still delivering.

Looks good LR, particularly the Isak over Saka, with Triple Arsenal def instead. Very tempted to do the same but maybe only risk one Arse def as CSs are in short supply this season.

Because everyone is buying him and if I do the same as everyone else, my OR will also stay the same. Odd that really 🤔

Not sure even Leicester away in a few days time is that good TBF.

What's the thinking Joe, is this an anticipated new manager bounce?
They are woeful and apart from maybe WOL(H), the rest - BOU(A), BHA(H), SOU(A) are not easy and are followed by LIV, MCI.

He left the building on Monday for JP. Not because I needed the money particularly, I needed the spot in the forward line. Too many better performing assets there.
I plan to keep a big chunk of the free cash parked either in the front line or ITB, so that should things change, he is only 2 FTs away.

It'll be Mo Salah - City defence in a bad shape, morale low and it's at Anfield.
Palmer's positioning makes him less of an option and I'm expecting Villa to improve faster than City.
Outside choices would be Wissa or JP, but the latter's minutes could be an issue.

This ^

haha, doesn't really matter if he starts or not, look at the damage he did to the champions in a 25 min cameo!

Saka for BJ, once he is past tonight’s game

Just worry about Madueke occupying the same space on the right.

amazing, not far off the 90+, what if Bruno and Palms had delivered!

Oddly, Newc seem better on the road, although Palace are improving with rumours of Glasner getting backed in Jan.

I think tonight shows the Hammers are still fighting for Lope, so I'll probs avoid Saka at the London stadium.

I'd also swerve Bruno as Eve with Branth are harder to break down and MU are very much WIP, with no clear lineup and Bruno potentially not playing in the front 3 as everyone predicted.

Keeping Wissa. Moving Mbeumo on after Leicester. He’s wider now and I can’t have two attacking players from a team that only performs at home.

What's the takeaway from this Oscar?
Less is More when it comes to transfers or just team selection variance?

Everyone has essentially the same team now, things are looking quite template.
Without Haaland, we probably can have them all now, so some new differentials are going to be needed to be upwardly mobile.
Any 'under appreciated players' with good data, will be much appreciated 😄

haha, ye, do you think he's on BlueSky yet?
Had been thinking about Isak when I responded to that post, not possible to edit on here yet like twitter/x.

I’m saving the bragging until after the Lewis Hall brace tomorrow

Shame the EO is 175%, the points will really only matter if you don’t have the above