Persuasion UK

Always worth reading research from @persuasionuk.bsky.social

Tactically I think Reeves made best of a bad situation today - the individual measures were sensible and some good stuff in there.

But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.

This is correct, I think. And it's also the case that lots of voters always believed taxes would go up. Because the *public are not fools*.

Voters resigned to tax rises, despite Labour and Conservative pledges | Ipsos share.google/7kg2JnLmBPN3...

Must read for Labour - then they can't say they weren't told!

Fascinating report out today looking at the choices facing Labour ahead of the budget - there are no good options but failing on core progressive goals is a much bigger risk for Labour govt than breaking promises on tax.

Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government?

Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this.

TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab.

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YouTube video by The New Statesman Labour CAN raise tax, if… | UK Politics | The New Statesman

WATCH: @steveakehurst.bsky.social discusses our latest research on the government's 'least worst option' on tax rises with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV73...

NEW: our latest research on where voters stand on tax rises v improvements on public services and cost of living is out now. Read it here: persuasionuk.org/research/bud...

Why are young women increasingly left-wing? And how it could change politics

Interesting from @samfr.bsky.social as ever "...young women’s leftwards turn is not just an issue for parties on the right, it’s a problem for centre-left parties too. They are fixating about the loss of older voters to the radical right [while] haemorrhaging young women to parties like the Greens"

YouTube video by The New Statesman Farage and Trump relationship a problem for Reform | UK Politics | The New Statesman

Nigel Farage makes mistakes just like any other politician and his close relationship with Trump is a big one, as explained by Persuasion Director, Steve Akehurst on the @newstatesman.com podcast:

Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

What messages might Reform be vulnerable to? Exploring weaknesses in the Farage brand - an experiment.

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to?

Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.

strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...

YouTube video by The New Statesman Labour must say THIS to beat Reform | UK politics | The New Statesman

WATCH Persuasion Director @steveakehurst.bsky.social discuss our latest research on Reform's brand weaknesses on the @newstatesman.com podcast with @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and Anoosh Chakelian:

youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...

This is fascinating research -

Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them.

Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.

Quite an interesting gender gap opening up in vote intention at the mo: Reform vote notably more male, residual Con vote more female.

Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways.

Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.

This is the same as hospitals, police, climate change etc. Huge gap between % who say they want more govt spending and % who say they'd pay more themselves.

Task for govt is to make the case for why we need to pay more now, to save money later. Chart from @steveakehurst.bsky.social

Everything you need to know about the British voting public

Broken Labour agrees on one thing: frustration with Keir Starmer Faced with a divided party and disaffected voters, this month’s spending review is of critical importance to the government as it seeks to balance the books and plan for the future

Jason Cowley suggests that being 'net zero supporting' is the preserve of the 'metropolitan liberal-left' against 'working class Labour' when polling consistently shows that the majority of the public support net zero. Lazy stereotyping doesn't make it true. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

"...core voter groups can leave political parties suddenly if they don’t feel we are serving them." This backs up Persuasion's research which is referenced in Jeevun's piece.

The lesson for Labour? Until it can improve local lives and stop fearing Farage, more losses are coming | Polly Toynbee Rapid, highly visible action in communities and a forthright attack on the new right – that is what’s needed now, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

"...this is the time for outright confrontation with the dark forces of the right, reaffirming social democratic and liberal progressive optimism."

@pollytoynbee.bsky.social uses our research to show that progressive policies can save Labour's voter coalition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

A glimmer of hope for Labour – its vote share rises to 36% if Reform is its main opponent (via @persuasionuk.bsky.social).

Correct! Read our report for more info on this: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

Phasing out fossil fuels ‘doomed to fail’, says Tony Blair as he calls for rethink of net zero policy – as it happened ‘Any strategy based on either phasing out fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail,’ says former PM

Good to see @jessicaelgot.bsky.social using our research to show that Net Zero remains popular and that Labour needs to pay as much attention to its left flank as its Reform curious voters. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

We obsess over the angry young men going Reform. But what of the anxious young women going Green? | Gaby Hinsliff Desire for a politics that cares about global and local injustice is sharpening the political gender divide, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff

‪'Maybe it’s not just schoolboys who should be sat down and made to watch Netflix’s Adolescence, as MPs keep arguing, but their fathers."

@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social on our surprise finding that Gen Z men aren't as extreme as we might think.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are generally in favour of Net Zero compared to core Reform voters who have a lot of hostility towards it.

Read more here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

This is excellent research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social. Urge everyone to read for an *informed* take on the voters Labour is losing to Reform.

Great report that largely confirms what we have found for other countries. 1) Potential losses to Reform are dwarved by potential losses to Greens/LibDems. 2) Moving right on immigration has very small effect on retaining potential Reform voters. Net gains/losses largely cancel each other out.

Our 10,000 person survey, out today, finds that ‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are different to core Reform voters in key ways including being much more progressive on the economy and supportive of Net Zero. Read our new report here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

What makes ‘Reform-curious’ Labour voters so hard to woo back Downing Street fears Starmer will lose support to Farage but imitating him will alienate other groups it needs on side

They like Farage but don't share his hostility to net zero. And they worry about the whole, you know, possible racism thing *uptalk for this bit*. Illuminating new research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social on "Reform-curious" Labour voters and a host of policy dilemmas www.ft.com/content/deb2...

The full research on "Reform curious" Labour voters is now out and on Steve's substack and thread below - you'd be mad not to have a look - so much to mull over. Including: Wales? No, Scotland! As well as the broader policy angles we covered in the FT op ed this morning www.ft.com/content/deb2...

Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters' exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they lose

NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?

How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?

Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇