Persuasion UK

Why are young women increasingly left-wing? And how it could change politics

Interesting from @samfr.bsky.social as ever "...young women’s leftwards turn is not just an issue for parties on the right, it’s a problem for centre-left parties too. They are fixating about the loss of older voters to the radical right [while] haemorrhaging young women to parties like the Greens"

YouTube video by The New Statesman Farage and Trump relationship a problem for Reform | UK Politics | The New Statesman

Nigel Farage makes mistakes just like any other politician and his close relationship with Trump is a big one, as explained by Persuasion Director, Steve Akehurst on the @newstatesman.com podcast:

Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

What messages might Reform be vulnerable to? Exploring weaknesses in the Farage brand - an experiment.

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to?

Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want.

strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...

YouTube video by The New Statesman Labour must say THIS to beat Reform | UK politics | The New Statesman

WATCH Persuasion Director @steveakehurst.bsky.social discuss our latest research on Reform's brand weaknesses on the @newstatesman.com podcast with @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and Anoosh Chakelian:

youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...

This is fascinating research -

Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them.

Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.

Quite an interesting gender gap opening up in vote intention at the mo: Reform vote notably more male, residual Con vote more female.

Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways.

Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.

This is the same as hospitals, police, climate change etc. Huge gap between % who say they want more govt spending and % who say they'd pay more themselves.

Task for govt is to make the case for why we need to pay more now, to save money later. Chart from @steveakehurst.bsky.social

Everything you need to know about the British voting public

Broken Labour agrees on one thing: frustration with Keir Starmer Faced with a divided party and disaffected voters, this month’s spending review is of critical importance to the government as it seeks to balance the books and plan for the future

Jason Cowley suggests that being 'net zero supporting' is the preserve of the 'metropolitan liberal-left' against 'working class Labour' when polling consistently shows that the majority of the public support net zero. Lazy stereotyping doesn't make it true. www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

"...core voter groups can leave political parties suddenly if they don’t feel we are serving them." This backs up Persuasion's research which is referenced in Jeevun's piece.

The lesson for Labour? Until it can improve local lives and stop fearing Farage, more losses are coming | Polly Toynbee Rapid, highly visible action in communities and a forthright attack on the new right – that is what’s needed now, says Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee

"...this is the time for outright confrontation with the dark forces of the right, reaffirming social democratic and liberal progressive optimism."

@pollytoynbee.bsky.social uses our research to show that progressive policies can save Labour's voter coalition www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

A glimmer of hope for Labour – its vote share rises to 36% if Reform is its main opponent (via @persuasionuk.bsky.social).

Correct! Read our report for more info on this: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

Phasing out fossil fuels ‘doomed to fail’, says Tony Blair as he calls for rethink of net zero policy – as it happened ‘Any strategy based on either phasing out fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail,’ says former PM

Good to see @jessicaelgot.bsky.social using our research to show that Net Zero remains popular and that Labour needs to pay as much attention to its left flank as its Reform curious voters. www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...

We obsess over the angry young men going Reform. But what of the anxious young women going Green? | Gaby Hinsliff Desire for a politics that cares about global and local injustice is sharpening the political gender divide, says Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff

‪'Maybe it’s not just schoolboys who should be sat down and made to watch Netflix’s Adolescence, as MPs keep arguing, but their fathers."

@gabyhinsliff.bsky.social on our surprise finding that Gen Z men aren't as extreme as we might think.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are generally in favour of Net Zero compared to core Reform voters who have a lot of hostility towards it.

Read more here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

This is excellent research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social. Urge everyone to read for an *informed* take on the voters Labour is losing to Reform.

Great report that largely confirms what we have found for other countries. 1) Potential losses to Reform are dwarved by potential losses to Greens/LibDems. 2) Moving right on immigration has very small effect on retaining potential Reform voters. Net gains/losses largely cancel each other out.

Our 10,000 person survey, out today, finds that ‘Reform curious’ Labour voters are different to core Reform voters in key ways including being much more progressive on the economy and supportive of Net Zero. Read our new report here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

What makes ‘Reform-curious’ Labour voters so hard to woo back Downing Street fears Starmer will lose support to Farage but imitating him will alienate other groups it needs on side

They like Farage but don't share his hostility to net zero. And they worry about the whole, you know, possible racism thing *uptalk for this bit*. Illuminating new research from @steveakehurst.bsky.social on "Reform-curious" Labour voters and a host of policy dilemmas www.ft.com/content/deb2...

The full research on "Reform curious" Labour voters is now out and on Steve's substack and thread below - you'd be mad not to have a look - so much to mull over. Including: Wales? No, Scotland! As well as the broader policy angles we covered in the FT op ed this morning www.ft.com/content/deb2...

Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters' exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they lose

NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?

How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?

Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇

EV project - January 2025 - long version.pptx Attitudes to electric vehicles and the 2030 target Findings in full January 2025

And our wider research found that Tesla was already a slight drag on the brand of EVs - with voters slightly less likely to opt for an EV over a petrol car if the EV was Tesla. 3/3

Our recent polling found most voters starting point is to prefer a UK made EV, even if it’s slightly more expensive: 2/3

With the government mulling cuts to Tesla subsidies, our recent polling suggests that the public is likely to support this - particularly if the subsidies are directed towards UK car manufacturing. 1/3

Welfare reform is an angsty topic for Labour, with its swing vote & base in different places.

But vaguely interesting to note the 'Reform curious' bit of Labour vote is not actually that anti-welfare, narrowly pro in fact. Different to both wider Reform vote and other Lab switcher groups.

"[While] Reform UK and Nigel Farage are increasingly popular, they remain unpopular overall....this calls into question Reform UK’s vulnerability to the same sort of tactical voting machine that geared into action last year to hand the Conservatives their worst ever election result."

Persuasion is 6 months old! To celebrate we've just sent out our first newsletter. You can sign up here for more updates on our latest research and insights: persuasionuk.org

Luke's segments work always fascinating. Lab's 16 point drop among "loyal nationals" is attracting attention - but the party is also down 9 points since GE (and 27 points since 2019) among progressive activists - their core group, by 12 among "disengaged battlers & by 10 among "civic pragmatists"