How can Iran surrender if Israel/US keep trying to kill any new leadership?

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
For the past few weeks I've warned about the elevated readings of NYSE High Low Logic, which indicates a bifurcated market, much like the #HindenburgOmen. Will the #Iran war be the trigger for a correction?

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Equity risk appetite factors look a little wobbly here

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The combination of sideways $SPX price movement and rising EPS estimates means that forward P/E has fallen to 21.5. Less stratospheric but still elevated.

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX forward 12m EPS estimates are rising strongly

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Major US averages have been range bound, except EW $SPX is in an uptrend. Though $IWM violated a rising trend line but range bound.

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
If you thought small caps represent the new leadership, here's a warning. The $SML is exhibiting a negative divergence against its A-D Line.

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Beware! The market is still highly bifurcated

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software stocks are still weak, and technology is testing a key relative support level.
$IGV

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Our #TradeWar factor barely budged in response to the #IEEPA decision

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Did you notice the market reaction to the #SCOTUS #IEEPA ruling? $SPX was up less than 1% and $VVIX remains above 100, indicating continued anxiety.

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Meanwhile, consumer staples are surging, highly extended, while exhibiting "good" overbought conditions.
$XLP

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$NDX has further potential downside risk relative to $SPX
Not oversold yet

Tail Risk for Banks Posed by Investments in Generative Artificial Intelligence - Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly increase our productivity and alter how we work and live in many ways. Because of this potential—and the related financial…

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Credit market angst: Chicago Fed study found 26% of big bank loans to software companies are rated B or lower
www.chicagofed.org/publications...

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse charted. $IGV violated several int relaltive support levels & now testing key support.
More worrisome is the breach of relative uptrend of technology against equal-weigthed $SPX

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Software Apocalypse?
I'm old enough to remember who Time Magazine named as Person of the Year

I know that everyone is excited about broadening breadth. But the EW $SPX and $ACWI ex-US are now at the top of their rising channels. Too much too fast?

$SPX $SPXEW $ACWX

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Polymarket odds of an attack on #Iran. This can't be called tail-risk anymore.

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
#Value on a tear against #Growth across all market cap bands and internationally.

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Earnings season results has been strong, and the recent price weakness has pulled $SPX fwd P/E to 21.5, the bottom of a recent range. If this is a normal drawdown in a bull trend, this a good place for the decline to stop.

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Bad New? A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Don't forget about the Dow Theory buy signal

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SPX breadth is still broadening

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
#Growth has become oversold relative to #Value

3 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Estimates are still rising strongly

2 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
$SLV island reversal

1 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Liquidity shrank in the past week. More importantly, Kevin Warsh is known for favoring shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. If that's the case, what happens to banking system liquidity?

Is this a good time in the middle of a large storm for Ontario Hydro & Hydro Quebec to turn off the power to the US NE to demonstrate how interconnected the 2 economies are?

Asking for a friend 😱

5 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
Defensive sector relative performance: Bottoming but not showing definitive signs of leadership

4 of 5 thoughts for the weekend
The "Sell America" trade has gained a bid, but is it sustainable?